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Poker question about odds

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mugs

Lifer
Apr 29, 2003
48,902
10
81
Originally posted by: mchammer187
only need to know two things

2 overcards against a lower pair means a close to 50-50 shot

a pair higher than 77 has a 4-1 shot of beating the pocket 7's

if anyone is going to call with less than that they are extremely dumb
Again, aren't you assuming the guy knew the other guy's hand, which he wouldn't have known?
 

LordSnailz

Diamond Member
Nov 2, 1999
4,821
0
0
Can someone explain the # of players thing? For example, say BB was on AK and SB was on 77, everyone folds and it goes back to the SB. Would be this be considered a head to head? If not, how is this different from passing 20 cards out to 10 players versus 4 cards out to 2 players?

 

torpid

Lifer
Sep 14, 2003
11,631
11
76
Originally posted by: LordSnailz
Can someone explain the # of players thing? For example, say BB was on AK and SB was on 77, everyone folds and it goes back to the SB. Would be this be considered a head to head? If not, how is this different from passing 20 cards out to 10 players versus 4 cards out to 2 players?
Personally I would say it's head to head but not heads up. But then again I don't hear people say head to head so maybe that's just another way of saying heads up.

The number of people dealt to is important because it gives you some clue as to what kind of hand the guy who went all in has. If 10 people are dealt to and he goes all in, he in theory could have to beat up to 9 hands in order to win. Therefore, assuming he doesn't bluff or partially bluff, he probably would have a very solid hand. And thus pocket 7's is likely to be less strong in comparison.

If only two people are dealt to, one can go all in with a lot of weaker hands. Therefore if I have pocket 7's and only two are dealt to, I am thinking that my hand is probably stronger.
 

TheLonelyPhoenix

Diamond Member
Feb 15, 2004
5,594
0
0
Originally posted by: torpid
Originally posted by: LordSnailz
Can someone explain the # of players thing? For example, say BB was on AK and SB was on 77, everyone folds and it goes back to the SB. Would be this be considered a head to head? If not, how is this different from passing 20 cards out to 10 players versus 4 cards out to 2 players?
Personally I would say it's head to head but not heads up. But then again I don't hear people say head to head so maybe that's just another way of saying heads up.

The number of people dealt to is important because it gives you some clue as to what kind of hand the guy who went all in has. If 10 people are dealt to and he goes all in, he in theory could have to beat up to 9 hands in order to win. Therefore, assuming he doesn't bluff or partially bluff, he probably would have a very solid hand. And thus pocket 7's is likely to be less strong in comparison.

If only two people are dealt to, one can go all in with a lot of weaker hands. Therefore if I have pocket 7's and only two are dealt to, I am thinking that my hand is probably stronger.
"Heads-up" means only two people are playing.

Yes, pocket pairs have more value in a heads-up game than they do in a larger one. However, pocket pairs actually generate more betting pre-flop in a large, multi-way game, b/c the person they are dealt to wants to drive out as many people as he can to prevent someone else from catching. Either he folds them immediately or does his best to protect them. But that's beside the point.

In a heads-up game, your stack is just as important as your cards. Going all-in with a fairly easily cracked hand, against a player who has enough cash to call you out? He should have tried to see the flop as cheaply as possible, then played it from there.
 

mchammer187

Diamond Member
Nov 26, 2000
9,116
0
76
Originally posted by: mugs
Originally posted by: mchammer187
only need to know two things

2 overcards against a lower pair means a close to 50-50 shot

a pair higher than 77 has a 4-1 shot of beating the pocket 7's

if anyone is going to call with less than that they are extremely dumb
Again, aren't you assuming the guy knew the other guy's hand, which he wouldn't have known?
someone makes an all in bet

am i going to risk a call with 5-6 off suit ? hell no
would i even go in with a K J off suit? maybe but probably not

with pocket 2's no way

what would it take me to call hmm AK maybe JJ or higher

you have to realize there are some hands that should be automatically folded unless you want to pure bluff

but in a situation where someone goes all in remember there is no bluffing it is either call or not

you are not going to call with trash cards

i am not going to argue with the play

i never said that playing 77 was a bad move or calling with AK

i'm just saying when someone goes all in there are certain hands you never play with unless you have a GOOD READ

since the 77's went first obviously there is no way to know if someone had something better but in this the AK should know that the guy was holding a pair or AK, AQ, or AJ
 

torpid

Lifer
Sep 14, 2003
11,631
11
76
Originally posted by: TheLonelyPhoenix
Originally posted by: torpid
Originally posted by: LordSnailz
Can someone explain the # of players thing? For example, say BB was on AK and SB was on 77, everyone folds and it goes back to the SB. Would be this be considered a head to head? If not, how is this different from passing 20 cards out to 10 players versus 4 cards out to 2 players?
Personally I would say it's head to head but not heads up. But then again I don't hear people say head to head so maybe that's just another way of saying heads up.

The number of people dealt to is important because it gives you some clue as to what kind of hand the guy who went all in has. If 10 people are dealt to and he goes all in, he in theory could have to beat up to 9 hands in order to win. Therefore, assuming he doesn't bluff or partially bluff, he probably would have a very solid hand. And thus pocket 7's is likely to be less strong in comparison.

If only two people are dealt to, one can go all in with a lot of weaker hands. Therefore if I have pocket 7's and only two are dealt to, I am thinking that my hand is probably stronger.
"Heads-up" means only two people are playing.

Yes, pocket pairs have more value in a heads-up game than they do in a larger one. However, pocket pairs actually generate more betting pre-flop in a large, multi-way game, b/c the person they are dealt to wants to drive out as many people as he can to prevent someone else from catching. Either he folds them immediately or does his best to protect them. But that's beside the point.

In a heads-up game, your stack is just as important as your cards. Going all-in with a fairly easily cracked hand, against a player who has enough cash to call you out? He should have tried to see the flop as cheaply as possible, then played it from there.
I know what heads up means. I don't know what "head to head" means.
 

DBL

Platinum Member
Mar 23, 2001
2,637
0
0
Originally posted by: KingNothing
Playing on party poker and a guy just lost $50. Someone went all-in preflop with A-K suited, and he called with pocket 7's. Now he's arguing that he had a 50-50 chance of winning that pot and I'm saying it's less than that.

Anyone know who's right?
Here is my take on the situation.

Here is what we don't know about this hand. (It would be nice to know this info.)
1) We don't know the blinds, so determining whether the AK was short-stacked w/ $50 is impossible to determine. I going to assume he wasn't as I assume the BB was less than $5.
2) We also don't know relative position. For instance did 77 call the all-in w/ players behind him?

Assuming no initial raise or a small raise, AKs is definitely worth a raise or possibly a re-raise. You need to thin out the field with this hand as well as represent a possible high pair for a flop semi-bluff. Going all-in with a drawing hand (a mistake I've made in tournament play before) is not a particularly strong play since you have to consider the hands that will call you. You're best bet are hands you dominate such as AQ and AJ, although getting a call from these hands is pretty unlikely. In addition, AA and KK will automatically call you in this situation, although the chances of running into either hand are pretty slim, especially when holding AK, but it does happen. Usually, your all-in will be enough to take down the very meager pot and when you do get called, usually by mid-pairs and higher, you would be a slight underdog. Personally, I like the idea of a strong raise followed by a semi-bluff on the river if your hand doesn't hit. AK hits near 30% on the flop. Combine that with the chance of a successful semi-bluff (assuming no more than 3 callers) and I believe you have a much more profitable strategy than "AK All-in".

Now calling an All-in w/ a hand as mediocre as 77 is a much worse play unless the All-in is short-stacked or you suspect them of trying to steal your blind. I would guess that making this call puts you in a 4-1 dog situation (up against an over pair) at least half of the time. The other half of the time would probably be split between a coin flip (such as in this example) and an under pair. In addition, if there are callers behind you and you are determined to make this play, it would probably be correct to raise all-in yourself, representing a monster hand. This should make anybody else holding anything less than KK muck their hand. Either way, I see this as a loose call, which over time, will hurt your bankroll.




 

DBL

Platinum Member
Mar 23, 2001
2,637
0
0
Originally posted by: mugs
I don' t know much about poker, so all of the terminology you're using is pretty much meaningless to me. But it seems to me that you're all comparing the odds of the guy with 77 beating a AK, when the guy with the 77 didn't know the other guy had AK until after he lost. Don't you want to figure how many possible hands could beat a 77 vs. how many hands the 77 would beat?

Edit: If I'm interpreting Kyteland's table correctly, he has the right answer. The guy had a 65% chance of winning well better than 50-50. The AK's probability of winning isn't really relevant.
True, if it were a random hand he was up against. The fact that there was a significant all-in raise in front means that we are not up against a random hand.
 

amoeba

Diamond Member
Aug 7, 2003
3,162
1
0
good god there is a lot of bad math and poor understanding of outs in this thread.

Good posts, DBL. Although I think your use of the word semibluff is off.

You can't semibluff the river.

Semibluff means bluffing when you have a draw so that you have 2 ways to win, either by having a lot of folding equity and having the field fold or by having them call and possibly making your draw.

Semibluff usually occur on the flop. occasionally on the turn but typically you don't have enough left in your stack to generate folding equity.
 

amoeba

Diamond Member
Aug 7, 2003
3,162
1
0
As to the AKs vs 77 question, 77 is small preflop favorite. In these situations while AKs has greater flush and straight possibility, those are miniscule.
its 100 to 1 that the flush or the straight hits for AK.

the reason people call all in with AK is because AK is only dominated by 2 hands, AA and KK. AK is a small underdog against all other underpairs.

So you must think well, why don't I always go all in with a pocket pair?

its not that simple.

While a hand like 77 is small favorite over AK, it is dominated by many more hands, namely pocket pairs 88-AA. Also, it is coinflip against 2 overs, even crappy ones like say T8.

consider this.

22 is small favorite over AKs

Aks is about 60/40 over TJs

TJs is small favorite over 22.

 

Lorax

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2000
1,658
0
0
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 816929 47.71 889561 51.95 5814 0.34 0.479
7d 7h 889561 51.95 816929 47.71 5814 0.34 0.521

twodimes.net
 

DBL

Platinum Member
Mar 23, 2001
2,637
0
0
Originally posted by: amoeba
good god there is a lot of bad math and poor understanding of outs in this thread.

Good posts, DBL. Although I think your use of the word semibluff is off.

You can't semibluff the river.

Semibluff means bluffing when you have a draw so that you have 2 ways to win, either by having a lot of folding equity and having the field fold or by having them call and possibly making your draw.

Semibluff usually occur on the flop. occasionally on the turn but typically you don't have enough left in your stack to generate folding equity.
Absolutely. I meant a semi-bluff on the flop. Thanks for pointing that out. I guess this play could be considered a total bluff but I used semi-bluff b/c of the top-pair, top-kicker draw on the turn.


 

mchammer187

Diamond Member
Nov 26, 2000
9,116
0
76
Originally posted by: amoeba
As to the AKs vs 77 question, 77 is small preflop favorite. In these situations while AKs has greater flush and straight possibility, those are miniscule.
its 100 to 1 that the flush or the straight hits for AK.

the reason people call all in with AK is because AK is only dominated by 2 hands, AA and KK. AK is a small underdog against all other underpairs.

So you must think well, why don't I always go all in with a pocket pair?

its not that simple.

While a hand like 77 is small favorite over AK, it is dominated by many more hands, namely pocket pairs 88-AA. Also, it is coinflip against 2 overs, even crappy ones like say T8.

consider this.

22 is small favorite over AKs

Aks is about 60/40 over TJs

TJs is small favorite over 22.
heads up AKs is favored if neither of the 2's is the same suit as the A or the K i believe

 

amoeba

Diamond Member
Aug 7, 2003
3,162
1
0
AK has a 49.77win vs a 49.60 win for 22 where neither is same suit so you are correct.

I can easily change it to read

Ako > TJs

22 > AKo

TJs > 22
 

Metalloid

Diamond Member
Jan 18, 2002
3,064
0
0
Originally posted by: mchammer187
you are a slight favorite but it is going to be close to 50 percent

i think if you had 22 he would be favorite

basically the number sitations where the board double pairs and he wins with a kicker say 33 and 44 flop

are the only things that matter with 77 there are less of them than 22

if you had QQ you would be around 54% if you had 22 you would be at 46% i'm not sure those numbers are exact though

at 77 you are probably a 51-52% favorite
Someone has already said this im sure, but:
Against AK, any pocket pair 99 and below have exact same odds.
 

Garet Jax

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2000
6,369
0
71
Originally posted by: Metalloid

Against AK, any pocket pair 99 and below have exact same odds.
Actually, any pocket pair QQ and below have exact same odds against AK.
 

mchammer187

Diamond Member
Nov 26, 2000
9,116
0
76
Originally posted by: Garet Jax
Originally posted by: Metalloid

Against AK, any pocket pair 99 and below have exact same odds.
Actually, any pocket pair QQ and below have exact same odds against AK.
http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=As+Ks%0D%0AQc+Qd

As Ks vs:

Qc Qd 53.8% chance to win vs suited AK if one of the queens does not match suit with the aces

9c 9d = 52.4%

6c 6d =52.1%

3c 3d = 50.6%

2c 2d = 49.9%

so my numbers were off but the concept is still the same

the higher pairs have a better because there are more situations where if the board double pairs higher tan your pair the AK will win with a better kicker
 

amoeba

Diamond Member
Aug 7, 2003
3,162
1
0
Originally posted by: Metalloid
Originally posted by: mchammer187
you are a slight favorite but it is going to be close to 50 percent

i think if you had 22 he would be favorite

basically the number sitations where the board double pairs and he wins with a kicker say 33 and 44 flop

are the only things that matter with 77 there are less of them than 22

if you had QQ you would be around 54% if you had 22 you would be at 46% i'm not sure those numbers are exact though

at 77 you are probably a 51-52% favorite
Someone has already said this im sure, but:
Against AK, any pocket pair 99 and below have exact same odds.


incorrect.

more possibilities of ties the lower the pair goes, more possibility of a 2 pair board with A winning as higher kicker the lower the pair goes.
 

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