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Place your bets! Who is running for president?

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dank69 said:
It isn't really the Democrats they need to worry about. What do the independents think?
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I have not seen anything about independents yet. That poll did include D-leaning independents.


Sanders continues to prompt some of the same divisions he did in 2016, garnering lower support among self-identified Democrats and older voters. Among those who consider themselves Democrats, 34% back Biden, 11% Harris, 9% Sanders and 8% Warren. Among independents who say they lean to the Democratic Party, however, Sanders stands in second place, with 21% (Biden has 31%, Warren 8% and Harris 7%).

Harris appears to be the biggest beneficiary of Sanders' challenges among Democratic partisans. Among those self-identified Democrats who consider themselves liberal, Harris' support spikes to 19%, still behind Biden at 27% but well ahead of Sanders, who earns just 7% support among that group.

When you add Democratic-leaning independents back to the mix, liberals are more evenly split, with 28% behind Biden, 15% Harris, 13% Sanders and 11% Warren. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaners who consider themselves more moderate or conservative, Biden stands well above the rest: 38% Biden, 14% Sanders and all the rest in single digits.
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ivwshane said:
I'm assuming you are assuming trump will be out by then?

What has he done that makes you think he's running? (I'm not familiar with him btw)
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Patrick is making the normal moves: state fair appearances, Iowa, I believe, and others. He's quite popular in the democratic circles that know him, and he's known as an effective pragmatist. He's also smart, chill, and by all accounts, a solid dude. He could destroy Trump pretty handidly. Governors tend to make better presidents anyway.

I'm not sure if Trump will technically be out, but I think the Kochs are going to force the Pence flesh shell to run against Trump in a primary, and the shell will oblige, because it has no choice.
 
Brainonska511 said:
I think you should read your linked article again. It doesn't really say what you stated it is saying...
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Try reading my words again, slowly this time. Your fight isn't with me.

I said her results are being derided. That's true, right wing media was / is in a feeding frenzy with mocking Warren.
 
realibrad said:
I think Biden would crush Trump if he ran.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/14/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-bernie-sanders-2020/index.html

In a large primary field, Biden tops on who Democratic voters prefer



Former Vice President Joe Biden33%
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders13%
California Senator Kamala Harris9%
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren8%
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker5%
Former Secretary of State John Kerry5%
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg4%
Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke4%
Former Attorney General Eric Holder3%
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti2%
Attorney Michael Avenatti1%
New York Senator Kirstin Gillibrand1%
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar1%
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick1%
Montana Governor Steve Bullock*
Maryland Congressman John Delaney*
Someone else (vol.)2%
None/No one (vol.)2%
No opinion6%


Biden's biggest weakness was his gaffes. Post Trump, that will actually be a strength. He would say things that were true, but, not something you should say.
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My biggest problem with Biden is the same problem I have with Bernie and Warren. Their age. We need some young blood. I really like Kirsten Gillibrand, but a lot of Bernie bros style democrat voters hate her because she road Franken to resign when the accusations happened against him. I admit I also dislike the idea of Bernie running because many of his supporters have the same cult-like mentality of Trump voters and would be happy screwing the nation if they can't have Bernie, but won't accept he's not mainstream enough to win a primary. Cory and Kamala I think are both great choices, but I think we're still dealing with the racist backlash of having the first black President in Obama as seen by the electing of an outspoken white supremacist in Trump.
I absolutely do not want Avenatti. While he's a fun troll, we don't need someone who essentially is a leftist Trump.
Maybe we can convince Mueller to run!
 
thraashman said:
My biggest problem with Biden is the same problem I have with Bernie and Warren. Their age. We need some young blood. I really like Kirsten Gillibrand, but a lot of Bernie bros style democrat voters hate her because she road Franken to resign when the accusations happened against him. I admit I also dislike the idea of Bernie running because many of his supporters have the same cult-like mentality of Trump voters and would be happy screwing the nation if they can't have Bernie, but won't accept he's not mainstream enough to win a primary. Cory and Kamala I think are both great choices, but I think we're still dealing with the racist backlash of having the first black President in Obama as seen by the electing of an outspoken white supremacist in Trump.
I absolutely do not want Avenatti. While he's a fun troll, we don't need someone who essentially is a leftist Trump.
Maybe we can convince Mueller to run!
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I dont see Muller running. But, age is not a huge factor to me, so long as those old people realize they need to put the right people in place.
 
realibrad said:
I think Biden would crush Trump if he ran.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/14/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-bernie-sanders-2020/index.html

In a large primary field, Biden tops on who Democratic voters prefer



Former Vice President Joe Biden33%
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders13%
California Senator Kamala Harris9%
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren8%
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker5%
Former Secretary of State John Kerry5%
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg4%
Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke4%
Former Attorney General Eric Holder3%
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti2%
Attorney Michael Avenatti1%
New York Senator Kirstin Gillibrand1%
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar1%
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick1%
Montana Governor Steve Bullock*
Maryland Congressman John Delaney*
Someone else (vol.)2%
None/No one (vol.)2%
No opinion6%


Biden's biggest weakness was his gaffes. Post Trump, that will actually be a strength. He would say things that were true, but, not something you should say.
Click to expand...

"
Former Vice President Joe Biden33%
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders13%
California Senator Kamala Harris9%
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren8%
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker5%
Former Secretary of State John Kerry5%
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg4%
Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke4%
Former Attorney General Eric Holder3%
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti2%
Attorney Michael Avenatti1%
New York Senator Kirstin Gillibrand1%
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar1%
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick1%
Montana Governor Steve Bullock*
Maryland Congressman John Delaney* "

These folks plus about 8 - 10 more. It's going to start out as a huge field. Don't count out Clinton either.
 
Biden and Oprah are the only people I can think of, of the probable candidates at least, that have a better than average chance at beating Trump. I'm sure there are some unexpected dark horse options out there that could do well though -- eg. someone like Neil deGrasse Tyson would probably be a shoe-in. Dems really need a candidate who isn't too far left (with the possible exception of Sanders), but can also create excitement and energy. Fail the former and the election becomes a referendum on SJWs, which would be disastrous, while failing the later just leads to a repeat performance of 2016.
 
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Fanatical Meat said:
No, please no.
Deval Patrick did a good enough job in MA but not a stellar job.
Not the right guy for now.
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perhaps. I don't know much about him, but that's the thing: not stellar = not 100% news day = solid job of just doing your shit.

It's what conservatives want, right? government leaders that are effective at doing limited tasks without consuming our attention. They jumped the shark, obviously, but I think conservatives are in hiding. The republican party shit the bed and conservatives are waiting to vote for a non-sociopathic leader of some sort.

If he really is polling at 1% attention, that's good. Bill C was less than that at this point, and he ended up wiping the floor with Bush's flippy lips.

I'd like to see the Trump Nazi Army try to stand up against Patrick and the American People.

Interesting times.
 
dank69 said:
It isn't really the Democrats they need to worry about. What do the independents think?
Click to expand...

What independents?

"The share of independents in the United States stands at its highest point in more than 75 years of public opinion polling. However, a substantial majority of independents have not fully declared their independence from the two major parties. Most say they “lean” toward a party. As we found in our recent study on political animosity, partisan leaners don’t have especially positive views of the party they lean toward, yet they feel very negatively about the opposing party. Nevertheless, partisan leaners share many of the political values of – and tend to vote similarly to – members of party they lean toward."

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/07/05/5-facts-about-americas-political-independents/
 
Victorian Gray said:
What independents?

"The share of independents in the United States stands at its highest point in more than 75 years of public opinion polling. However, a substantial majority of independents have not fully declared their independence from the two major parties. Most say they “lean” toward a party. As we found in our recent study on political animosity, partisan leaners don’t have especially positive views of the party they lean toward, yet they feel very negatively about the opposing party. Nevertheless, partisan leaners share many of the political values of – and tend to vote similarly to – members of party they lean toward."

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/07/05/5-facts-about-americas-political-independents/
Click to expand...
Yes, that's why I nearly always put independents in quotes. However in this case I am talking about actual independents.
 
Just saw an interview with Amy Klobuchar and while she wouldn't commit, she did comment that her husband found out from a media interview before finding out from her when she originally declared for Senate. Which made it sound like she's going to run, but wants to tell her husband before going public.

A friend of mine out in Ohio has me half convinced that she may be a good option. He wants her to run with Beto as VP. She did very well in her mid term Senate run this year, much better than Clinton did in Minnesota. May be a strong candidate to pull in the rust belt states. Is young enough but has solid experience, though not so long a record as to be exploitable by the GOP lie machine.

Biggest knock is she's too moderate to excite the base. Then again, maybe Trump is enough to excite the dem base on his own. Him and a VP candidate who will grab younger and more liberal voters.
 
pcgeek11 said:
I could vote for Biden. I like Joe over all.
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I think Joe could get a lot of people in the middle and middle right that not many other Dems could. Joe is Pro gun which would help too. Hard to argue he sold out, seems to be liked by quite a few people.

Plus Leslie Knope approves of him.
 
Booker is a terrible pick. He'd do more to energise the right than the left and get little headway from centrists. Biden can firmly capture swing voters and won't really do much to energise the right. He's a pick that the centre-left will get behind with enthusiasm, and while he's not the most exciting candidate for the far-left they're plenty energised against Trump anyway.
 
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