Peak Oil?

[Rogodin2]

Have we hit it? Or is it still part of our future?

Rogo

 

[potato28]

Peak sometime in the future.

 

[AgaBoogaBoo]

nvm

 

[Rogodin2]

Either way I'd like to see some source material for your votes.

Thanks

Rogo

 

[UF Matt]

Per capita peak oil was in 1979. Total production isn't dramatically rising either. Probably will hit fairly soon.

 

[RU482]

peak oil...we've got a ways to go.

Peak gas...oh baby, it's only gonna get worse once if we don't get some more refineries on line

 

[potato28]

Originally posted by: Rogodin2
Either way I'd like to see some source material for your votes.

Thanks

Rogo

Are we talking ALL oils, or just Petro?

 

[Born2bwire]

Where's the option to say that it'll never peak?

 

[Vic]

It's a scientific fact that global peak oil has not been hit yet. There's still more oil in the ground in known reserves than has ever been taken out. Arguably, consumption is increasing, etc. etc. but people have been predicting the end of the world for more than 2000 years, so I won't hold my breath just yet.

 

[Rogodin2]

The oil supply is measurable-we have national and global agencies that measure and project field output-it's not infinite.

Rogo

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: Born2bwire
Where's the option to say that it'll never peak?

Well, of course, it will eventually peak, even with a resource as ridiculously abundant as oil, and that will force people to seek alternatives (by increased scarcity driving up prices) in such fashion that we will never ever run out. Which is a good thing, as oil is valuable for far more things than just burning it for energy.

 

[potato28]

I still don't know if it's vegetable oils also or just regular oil.

 

[potato28]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: Born2bwire
Where's the option to say that it'll never peak?

Well, of course, it will eventually peak, even with a resource as ridiculously abundant as oil, and that will force people to seek alternatives (by increased scarcity driving up prices) in such fashion that we will never ever run out. Which is a good thing, as oil is valuable for far more things than just burning it for energy.

He's talking about using renewable oils.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: Rogodin2
The oil supply is measurable-we have national and global agencies that measure and project field output-it's not infinite.

Rogo

Yes that is true, but as technology advances, more and more oil is measured because it is now attainable, they knew it was there but couldnt get to it. Also as technology advances more sources are found.

 

[Born2bwire]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: Born2bwire
Where's the option to say that it'll never peak?

Well, of course, it will eventually peak, even with a resource as ridiculously abundant as oil, and that will force people to seek alternatives (by increased scarcity driving up prices) in such fashion that we will never ever run out. Which is a good thing, as oil is valuable for far more things than just burning it for energy.

But it's a renewable resource. It'll last forever I say, forever! Or at least for the rest of my lifetime and isn't that what matters?

 

[Rogodin2]

But it's a renewable resource. It'll last forever I say, forever! Or at least for the rest of my lifetime and isn't that what matters?

Crude oil will be pumped until there isn't any left-but that's not 'peak oil'. Peak oil is the point at which ulitmate extraction is reached. Think of it as a bell shaped graph with the top of the bell being ultimate extraction-the bottom of the bell the lowest extraction.

You probably won't see oil 'run dry' in your lifetime-but you will see everything in the world that we as humans use become extremely expensive.

Rogo

Rogo

 

[FoBoT]

YAFUDT

 

[Born2bwire]

Originally posted by: Rogodin2

But it's a renewable resource. It'll last forever I say, forever! Or at least for the rest of my lifetime and isn't that what matters?

Crude oil will be pumped until there isn't any left-but that's not 'peak oil'. Peak oil is the point at which ulitmate extraction is reached. Think of it as a bell shaped graph with the top of the bell being ultimate extraction-the bottom of the bell the lowest extraction.

You probably won't see oil 'run dry' in your lifetime-but you will see everything in the world that we as humans use become extremely expensive.

Rogo

Rogo

That's ok. I'm a well-educated American. I can afford it.

 

[Rogodin2]

Yes that is true, but as technology advances, more and more oil is measured because it is now attainable, they knew it was there but couldnt get to it. Also as technology advances more sources are found.

That's a decent reply Technology is helping find oil reserves that weren't able to be extracted or measured (tar sand extraction-deep water drilling) but the amount of oil in these areas will not be able to keep up with global demand-that was the nasty part of the equation I've left out.

If demand was static we wouldn't have such a huge potential energy problem.

There is also the EROI factor on energy extraction/exploration-the ratio is very high with deep water and tar.

EROI is Energy Returned on Oil Invested.

Rogo

 

[LS20]

Originally posted by: Rogodin2
The oil supply is measurable-we have national and global agencies that measure and project field output-it's not infinite.

Rogo

we have national and global agencies that measure and project field output-it's not absolute.


noone knows the peak until after the fact

 

[BrownTown]

Meh, I just don't know. Maybe all the peakoil and environmentalist people are right but they have serious credibility problems due to the "boy who cried wolf" mentality. The number of horrible disasters predicted by these groups is very large and yet none of them ever comes to pass. Maybe peak oil or global warming will be different, but there is definitely a very valid reason why people are skeptical.

Certainly it is a mathematical fact that some point must occur at which "peak oil" is reached and after which oil production will decline. However the date is very vague (just looking at peakoil.com there are people arguing its 1 year away or decades, I think some may even say its past). Even more vague are the results. Certainly oil is hugely important to our economy, but over time this will change. Economic depression is a likely outcome, but those predicting massive die offs are just silly. for example pressure put on the food supply by lack of cheap fertilizers will be largely offset by a change in crops produced and a stronger push for GM foods. So even in a doomsday scenario I see at most some changes in diets and switch to more GM foods, not anarchy and famine.

 

[Rogodin2]

noone knows the peak until after the fact

I'm asking you if you think we're seeing some results of it 'being after the fact'.

Brown-I'm not proposing that we're after or before, nor what the outcome will be when and if we've moved beyond. I'm posting this poll because I want to see what a fairly educated cross section of the public believes. I don't assume that any majority of the population even understands 'hard landing, and dieoff'.



Rogo

 

[whistleclient]

Originally posted by: BrownTown
Meh, I just don't know. Maybe all the peakoil and environmentalist people are right but they have serious credibility problems due to the "boy who cried wolf" mentality. The number of horrible disasters predicted by these groups is very large and yet none of them ever comes to pass. Maybe peak oil or global warming will be different, but there is definitely a very valid reason why people are skeptical.

Certainly it is a mathematical fact that some point must occur at which "peak oil" is reached and after which oil production will decline. However the date is very vague (just looking at peakoil.com there are people arguing its 1 year away or decades, I think some may even say its past). Even more vague are the results. Certainly oil is hugely important to our economy, but over time this will change. Economic depression is a likely outcome, but those predicting massive die offs are just silly. for example pressure put on the food supply by lack of cheap fertilizers will be largely offset by a change in crops produced and a stronger push for GM foods. So even in a doomsday scenario I see at most some changes in diets and switch to more GM foods, not anarchy and famine.

just to play devil's advocate:

how will you get that food on your plate? most food in the US travels an average of 1500 miles from the farm to your plate.

i'm not saying we'll all starve, but it could affect us more than the "i'll just drive less" people want to admit.

i think the biggest variable for how it will affect us is the degree of fall off... if it's too sharp we won't be able to adapt as a society fast enough-- especially in the US.


"My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies in
a jet airplane. His son will ride a camel."

? Saudi saying

 

[LS20]

Originally posted by: Rogodin2

noone knows the peak until after the fact

I'm asking you if you think we're seeing some results of it 'being after the fact'.

Brown-I'm not proposing that we're after or before, nor what the outcome will be when and if we've moved beyond. I'm posting this poll because I want to see what a fairly educated cross section of the public believes. I don't assume that any majority of the population even understands 'hard landing, and dieoff'.



Rogo

ask people 30 years ago if they thought they saw 'the results of it'

 

[Apex]

If we are able to refine oil shale and tar sands at reasonable costs by the time oil production slows, I'm guessing we're nowhere near peak.