Originally posted by: Special K
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Utilizing leverage makes sense for dozens of reasons. Even 20% interest rate contracts on construction equipment leases can make sense to companies, since that leverage is far outweighted by what it returns.
It's all relative to what you can make in profit relative to what you spend in cost.
If I can make 25% in an investment and it costs me 20%, like a credit card does, then it makes sense for me to have credit card debt.
The problem with most debt is that people don't deploy the money they get from it in efficient and money-making endevours. That DVD player you shoved on a credit card for 15% interest doesn't earn you any money, so yes, you should pay it off.
Personally, my wife and I have 160k in student loan debt. I have some that I am paying off rapidly that has ~7.5% interest rate, which is too close for me to make just as much money off of while matching risks.
However, that's only about 30k of our total student loans. The other 130k has a weighted average interest rate of approximately 2.9%, which after our tax write-off, comes down to about 2.5%.
I can make 4x that in returns off of equities for the next 30 years. Sure, I give up 2.5% of my returns to debt servicing, but I am still making 7.5% on top of that. If I had just paid them off I would be utilizing all of my capital, which wouldn't be making 7.5% for the next 30 years.
All finance is, all any company is for that matter, is spending less than you can make. You borrow money because you can deploy it in a manner where it makes you more than it costs. It's a simple premise that is logically sound.
Serious question - I have 3 student loans. One is fixed at 2.75%, one is fixed at 5%, and the other is variable, and is currently sitting at 7.5% IIRC. There is a limit to how high the interest can go, but off the top of my head I don't remember what that limit is.
Is a general strategy to not pay off a debt early if you can make more money elsewhere? Does inflation matter here? Someone above said that you shouldn't pay off a debt early if the money you are gaining - the debt's interest rate is < ~3%, the approximate rate of inflation.
I doubt I could beat that 7.5% interest debt, so should I try to pay that one off ASAP, and just pay the minimum on the others?
Inflation plays into all investment decisions, to a certain extent.
An interest rate has 3 main components.
1. Inflation.
2. Risk-Free rate above inflation (usually US treasuries, which pays slightly more than inflation)
3. Credit spread.
Of course, credit spread is made up of many different things, but we'll leave it at that.
Now, this applies to almost all financial instruments. In the case of some, such as your student loans, your credit spread can be negative, that is your funding cost could be under inflation. This could be because you took out your loan during low inflation + low credit spread (as in the early 2000's when the fed funds overnight was 1%).
Whether or not a liability is greater or less than inflation makes no difference. If it's below it just means you have super cheap financing. If it's above, it just means you have slightly more expensive financing.
What makes the real difference is your credit spread.
Lets take an example, lets say you have $100,000 in student loans at 3.5% that have a 30-year repayment period. You also have $100,000 in cash. With this money you have two options. You can repay the student loan, effectively "investing" all of your cash at a 3.5% interest rate (since you will be saving 3.5% indefinitely).
Your second option is to invest your 100,000 in a 8% index fund for the next 30 years. Now, when people think of an index they think of the DJIA going up and down with a lot of volatility. What they forget is that the short-term movements do not matter, since you have 30-years to wait out any cycle. .
You may be asking yourself "Wait, I asked about inflation". Well, keep in mind that inflation is involved in everything, including that 8% return. If you took inflation out, lets say it was 2%, then your loans have a credit spread of 1.5% and your equities have a credit spread of 6%. You may also be asking "Well, doesn't credit spread = risk?" Sure, it does, but it equals volatility. Volatility is a short-term measurement, in the long-term you ride out all volatility. Conceivably you could lose out long-term, but then that'd be the biggest downturn in the US economy in history.
So, back to our two scenarios. In #1, you "make" 3.5% by "investing" your 100k in paying off your loan. From that point on, for the next 29.9999 years, you have nothing to pay. However, you have nothing to invest either!
In scenario 2, you *invest* your 100k at 8%. For the next 30 years it earns this amount, but you also have to service your debt at 3.5%. You get a spread of 4.5%. However, it still isn't that simple, because that's assuming it's a 100% "bullet payment", but you are actually amortizing your loan.
Your annual payment will be $5,437. However, your annual income will be ~8.5k. At the end of 30 years, you will have a total amount of $390.3k in the bank. During that time you will have paid $163k on your loans, or 63k of interest.
Think of that. By keeping your loans and investing at 8% for 30 years, you will end up with 390k. By just paying them off, you have nothing after 30 years, except that you avoided paying $63k in interest, and just the knowledge that you didn't have to worry about payments for 30 years.
Lets take my example. My weighted average interest rate is 2.5%. I am reasonably certain I can use my skills to get a 10% return and I have taken a 30-year repayment period on 130k in loans. By next Jan I could pay them all off, but should I?
After 30 years I will have $1.246M by not repaying. I will have paid $186.3k, or 56k in interest. However, if I had repaid them, I would have $0. I would have just saved 56k, but not have made 1.246M.
Now you tell me, "saving" 56k, or *MAKING* 1.246M. Which is worth it?
My advice, pay off the 7.5%. Pay min on everything else. Shove all of your money into several index funds, including international, small cap, medium cap, and a smaller amount of large cap. If you go mutual funds, I avoid "growth" funds, as they have long-term historically underperformed "value" funds.
No bonds, long-term investing is only dragged down by bonds.