Orange stain second term results thread

[K1052]

There’s actually a chance this bites em in the ass. They will have to pull GOP votes from safer districts to water down dem districts. Miscalculate and they all go dem.

A dummymander is a low probability with this map but it certainly is not zero in a bad year for the GOP. Anyway the proper retaliation is for populous Dem held states to wipe out GOP seats by doing the same thing. If they take 5 seats in TX then take 5 times that elsewhere (NY, IL, CA, etc).

 

[K1052]

LOL have you seen Democrats' popularity?

It's not going to be a big swing. 5 seats could easily be the difference.

I present for your consideration the ZERO R map of Illinois:

 

[K1052]

PCE keeps ticking up while Trump screams at Powell to reduce rates lol.

If he didn't start his trade war the Fed probably would have been cutting by now.

 

[Brovane]

According to every MAGAt I've dealt with the Democrat approval rating is 18%, I have no idea where this number comes from. But like 5 different MAGAs have quoted me 18% so somebody put that number out and they're all running with it. I haven't bothered to Google it because 1. MAGAs are unreliable sources for any actual truthful data. And 2. 18% sounds like an impossibly low number.

I think the Democrats will do far better than the GOP, the only people I see saying otherwise are MAGAts. And most don't even believe Trump went to Epstein Island.

While I don't have any polling numbers, just using my intuition, the Democrats are more popular than the Republicans right now. MAGAs aside who the fuck is in support of Trump, Boebert, MTG, Jordan & Cruz? I have met a handful who claim they're not MAGAs but think Trump's no worse than if Harris had won. I don't know if it'll be a blow out by the Dems, but they should win a decent chunk of the seats.

But, 10 months ago I was laughing out loud at the idea that Trump stood a chance of winning, so who the fuck knows here. This somehow might turn into a fight, which doesn't say anything about Democrats because this should be a massacre :|

Democrats Get Lowest Rating From Voters in 35 Years, WSJ Poll Finds

Overall Democrats don't seem to be happy with the parties leadership. Then you have voters disapproving of how Trump handles tariffs but the same voters trust the Republicans more than Democrats to handle tariffs. I am hoping that the Democrats can take back the House in 26.

Now, more voters identify as Republicans than as Democrats, a significant change in the structure of the electorate—and a rarity in politics. Republicans last year built their first durable lead in more than three decades in party identification, and they have maintained that lead today. In the new Journal survey, more voters identify as Republicans than as Democrats by 1 percentage point, and the GOP led by 4 points in the April poll.

When asked how they would vote if the election were held today, more voters in the new Journal poll said they would back a Democrat for Congress over a Republican by 3 points, 46% to 43%. That is a significant advantage for the Democrats at this early stage. But at this point in 2017, the Democratic lead was 8 percentage points.

Trump’s job approval rating, at 46%, is lower than the 52% who disapprove of his performance in office. But it is meaningfully higher than the 40% approval he drew at this point in his first term.

 

[Brainonska511]

PCE keeps ticking up while Trump screams at Powell to reduce rates lol.

If he didn't start his trade war the Fed probably would have been cutting by now.

The more he yells at the Fed to lower rates, the more the Fed might drag its feet to maintain the appearance of independence from political considerations.

 

[K1052]

The more he yells at the Fed to lower rates, the more the Fed might drag its feet to maintain the appearance of independence from political considerations.

He's got people on TV screaming that unemployment is low, GDP growth is high, and the economy is on fire so that they should cut lmao. Economic illiteracy epidemic continues to spread unchecked.

 

[K1052]

Democrats Get Lowest Rating From Voters in 35 Years, WSJ Poll Finds

Overall Democrats don't seem to be happy with the parties leadership. Then you have voters disapproving of how Trump handles tariffs but the same voters trust the Republicans more than Democrats to handle tariffs. I am hoping that the Democrats can take back the House in 26.

Now, more voters identify as Republicans than as Democrats, a significant change in the structure of the electorate—and a rarity in politics. Republicans last year built their first durable lead in more than three decades in party identification, and they have maintained that lead today. In the new Journal survey, more voters identify as Republicans than as Democrats by 1 percentage point, and the GOP led by 4 points in the April poll.

When asked how they would vote if the election were held today, more voters in the new Journal poll said they would back a Democrat for Congress over a Republican by 3 points, 46% to 43%. That is a significant advantage for the Democrats at this early stage. But at this point in 2017, the Democratic lead was 8 percentage points.

Trump’s job approval rating, at 46%, is lower than the 52% who disapprove of his performance in office. But it is meaningfully higher than the 40% approval he drew at this point in his first term.

Honestly not paying a whole lot of attention to this until the Dems make it through the primaries in eight months. Which I think are likely to hold quite a few unpleasant surprises for elderly and/or recalcitrant incumbents.

 

[Brainonska511]

He's got people on TV screaming that unemployment is low, GDP growth is high, and the economy is on fire so that they should cut lmao. Economic illiteracy epidemic continues to spread unchecked.

Remember though, Republicans really care about competence in government. Just like GamerGaters really cared about ethics in gaming journalism.

 

[Brainonska511]

Honestly not paying a whole lot of attention to this until the Dems make it through the primaries in eight months. Which I think are likely to hold quite a few unpleasant surprises for elderly and/or recalcitrant incumbents.

Also, people always play a game of hating a party but loving their rep.

I'm sure a bunch of the hate is also "why can't the minority party stop X" without understanding that the minority party, by the fact that it is the minority, is basically powerless. The time for decision was November 5, 2024. There are some things that can be done to slow stuff down, but Republicans have no problem ignoring or changing rules when they want to push stuff along, and there is an entire media apparatus dedicated to Republican talking points, and a separate "independent" one that will just shit on Democrats at every opportunity per Murc's Law.

 

[fskimospy]

So much for the 2026 blue wave fever dreams...

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5427604-congressional-maps-texas-gop/

The guy who thought democrats would lose an election in Hawaii has thoughts about an election.

You’ll never guess what way his prediction goes!

 

[K1052]

Also, people always play a game of hating a party but loving their rep.

I'm sure a bunch of the hate is also "why can't the minority party stop X" without understanding that the minority party, by the fact that it is the minority, is basically powerless. The time for decision was November 5, 2024. There are some things that can be done to slow stuff down, but Republicans have no problem ignoring or changing rules when they want to push stuff along, and there is an entire media apparatus dedicated to Republican talking points, and a separate "independent" one that will just shit on Democrats at every opportunity per Murc's Law.

There is some of that but the discontent seems realer this time and could be setting some incumbents up for a Tea Party situation. Especially if they draw interesting challengers. I think the NYC mayoral primary really put this dynamic on display.

 

[K1052]

The guy who thought democrats would lose an election in Hawaii has thoughts about an election.

You’ll never guess what way his prediction goes!

Wait don't tell me!

 

[nakedfrog]

Democrats Get Lowest Rating From Voters in 35 Years, WSJ Poll Finds

Overall Democrats don't seem to be happy with the parties leadership. Then you have voters disapproving of how Trump handles tariffs but the same voters trust the Republicans more than Democrats to handle tariffs. I am hoping that the Democrats can take back the House in 26.

Now, more voters identify as Republicans than as Democrats, a significant change in the structure of the electorate—and a rarity in politics. Republicans last year built their first durable lead in more than three decades in party identification, and they have maintained that lead today. In the new Journal survey, more voters identify as Republicans than as Democrats by 1 percentage point, and the GOP led by 4 points in the April poll.

When asked how they would vote if the election were held today, more voters in the new Journal poll said they would back a Democrat for Congress over a Republican by 3 points, 46% to 43%. That is a significant advantage for the Democrats at this early stage. But at this point in 2017, the Democratic lead was 8 percentage points.

Trump’s job approval rating, at 46%, is lower than the 52% who disapprove of his performance in office. But it is meaningfully higher than the 40% approval he drew at this point in his first term.

Voters that identify as independent are at a high too (higher than R or D to a significant level). Democrats need to actually offer progressive movement rather than trying to cozy up to Republicans. In light of the march towards authoritarianism people want to see actual leadership and not just mild finger-wagging.

 

[Muse]

5 seats (maybe) isn't going to make or break a swing in '26. Especially considering the states that are considering a retaliation in the other direction if TX goes ahead with it.

Newsom among them (CA), said this yesterday.

 

[outriding]

According to every MAGAt I've dealt with the Democrat approval rating is 18%, I have no idea where this number comes from. But like 5 different MAGAs have quoted me 18% so somebody put that number out and they're all running with it. I haven't bothered to Google it because 1. MAGAs are unreliable sources for any actual truthful data. And 2. 18% sounds like an impossibly low number.

I think the Democrats will do far better than the GOP, the only people I see saying otherwise are MAGAts. And most don't even believe Trump went to Epstein Island.

While I don't have any polling numbers, just using my intuition, the Democrats are more popular than the Republicans right now. MAGAs aside who the fuck is in support of Trump, Boebert, MTG, Jordan & Cruz? I have met a handful who claim they're not MAGAs but think Trump's no worse than if Harris had won. I don't know if it'll be a blow out by the Dems, but they should win a decent chunk of the seats.

But, 10 months ago I was laughing out loud at the idea that Trump stood a chance of winning, so who the fuck knows here. This somehow might turn into a fight, which doesn't say anything about Democrats because this should be a massacre :|

Or republicans will chortle the gop no matter what they do and the dems actually have more of a clue what is going on and more critical of their actions

 

[you2]

How the Trump administration hires or not hire people:

Army Secretary forces West Point to rescind appointment given to Easterly

The United States Military Academy abruptly ended the appointment of Jen Easterly to a high-profile academic position in West Point’s Department of Social Sciences, according to a memorandum issued Wednesday by the Secretary of the Army.

cyberscoop.com

Person is hired; some dodo brain (Laura Loomer) makes random social media false statement about person; person is unired.

To see a govt operating at this level is crazy insane.

 

[UNCjigga]

How the Trump administration hires or not hire people:

Army Secretary forces West Point to rescind appointment given to Easterly

The United States Military Academy abruptly ended the appointment of Jen Easterly to a high-profile academic position in West Point’s Department of Social Sciences, according to a memorandum issued Wednesday by the Secretary of the Army.

cyberscoop.com

Person is hired; some dodo brain (Laura Loomer) makes random social media false statement about person; person is unired.

To see a govt operating at this level is crazy insane.

This is how fascist regimes operate. There is a public org structure and a “real” org structure. Official titles and offices are meaningless—mere window dressing on the machinery at work.

The Secretary of State is Marco Rubio. But our “real” SecState is JD Vance.

The Chief of Staff is Susie Wiles. But the “real” Chief is Laura Loomer.

Pam Bondi/Kash Patel/Kristi Noem lead Justice/FBI/DHS. But the “real” buck stops with Stephen Miller.

I’m pretty sure Hegseth has already lost the keys to Defense…who knows who’s actually in charge over there (Razin’ Caine? Who needs civilian military leadership in a fascist state anyway?)

Trump is the President. But the “real” President is Russell Vought.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Grandpa’s getting worse.

Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com)

"There he is" -- Trump looks directly at Triple H while he puts him over as "an amazing athlete," but then seems to forget that he's standing right next to him and has to look around the room to find him

bsky.app

 

[nakedfrog]

Interesting pronunciation on "WWE" there.

 

[sdifox]

Interesting pronunciation on "WWE" there.

When one Preparation H is not enough and you need three.

 

[ivwshane]

This is how fascist regimes operate. There is a public org structure and a “real” org structure. Official titles and offices are meaningless—mere window dressing on the machinery at work.

The Secretary of State is Marco Rubio. But our “real” SecState is JD Vance.

The Chief of Staff is Susie Wiles. But the “real” Chief is Laura Loomer.

Pam Bondi/Kash Patel/Kristi Noem lead Justice/FBI/DHS. But the “real” buck stops with Stephen Miller.

I’m pretty sure Hegseth has already lost the keys to Defense…who knows who’s actually in charge over there (Razin’ Caine? Who needs civilian military leadership in a fascist state anyway?)

Trump is the President. But the “real” President is Russell Vought.

Russell or Peter thiel?

 

[nakedfrog]

When one Preparation H is not enough and you need three.

He's more hemorrhoid than ass now...

 

[you2]

Talk about enormous waste of public money - not quite as bad as the plane but almost:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/31/politics/white-house-ballroom-construction

They can cut medicare and other social programs but then waste billions on ONE person warp sense of ego.

 

[K1052]

Talk about enormous waste of public money - not quite as bad as the plane but almost:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/31/politics/white-house-ballroom-construction

They can cut medicare and other social programs but then waste billions on ONE person warp sense of ego.

I'm not, in principle, opposed to modification or expansion of the WH facilities (some indeed suck) but I'd just as soon not make it look like a cut rate Queens wedding hall your 2nd least favorite cousin is having her reception at.

 

[iRONic]

The kitchey, gold-embellished bullshit all over the Oval office is all you need to know about what this is gonna turn out to look like!

He's trying to emulate his hero Pukin. All the dictator wannabes decorate their shit the same. Saddam, Kim, Assad etc.

I hope they all DIAF!