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Orange stain second term results thread

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WelshBloke said:
How big is the rock that that 10% are under?!
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Something around that percentage believe the earth is flat, the moon landings were fake, etc. so I think the larger lesson there is 'around 10% of people are willing to believe literally fucking anything'.

Conspiracy vs. Science: A Survey of U.S. Public Beliefs

In this brief, author Lawrence Hamilton reports the results of a nationwide U.S. survey that asked respondents whether they agreed, disagreed, or were unsure about a series of statements that mixed pseudo-science conspiracy claims with well-established scientific facts.
carsey.unh.edu carsey.unh.edu
 
K1052 said:
aggregated polling is telling a story

View attachment 140598
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Ok a bit flippant. But the gap between disapproval and approval hasn’t changed much. Slightly worse approval since the government shutdown. But disapproval is comparatively stagnant. We need that pink line to move appreciably upward.

Perhaps what has happened is the some “approve” folks have moved into the “not sure” lane.

What would be interesting is if the line could be broken into the strongly, somewhat dichotomy. Would give us a better indication of the trend in the data. But tough with an aggregator.

The reason why I was flippant, is because with the disaster this has been for the past 14 months, I’d expect below 30% as an approval rating.
 
jdubs03 said:
Ok a bit flippant. But the gap between disapproval and approval hasn’t changed much. Slightly worse approval since the government shutdown. But disapproval is comparatively stagnant. We need that pink line to move appreciably upward.

Perhaps what has happened is the some “approve” folks have moved into the “not sure” lane.

What would be interesting is if the line could be broken into the strongly, somewhat dichotomy. Would give us a better indication of the trend in the data. But tough with an aggregator.

The reason why I was flippant, is because with the disaster this has been for the past 14 months, I’d expect below 30% as an approval rating.
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Partisanship is extremely strong. I generally have expected that his approval floor is in the mid to low 30s no matter what, a theory that appears to be getting tested. Starting to come in under GWB second term post Katrina approvals is not by any stretch of the imagination good news for him.
 
K1052 said:
If I'm the next D president I hire Tish James as AG and send every thieving motherfucker in this admin to prison. I'm sure all the fired/resigned DOJ lawyers will be eager to put in the overtime
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Heritage had project 2025, Democrats need a similar approach that focuses on collecting evidence and lines of inquiry so that if they win in 2028 the DoJ can move very quickly to bring cases. No more fucking around for the first 3 years of an administration and then watching the clock get run out.
 
K1052 said:
If I'm the next D president I hire Tish James as AG and send every thieving motherfucker in this admin to prison. I'm sure all the fired/resigned DOJ lawyers will be eager to put in the overtime.
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I think there is a VERY strong likelihood that on his way out Trump issues a mass pardon for crimes committed by government officials from 2025-2029 or whatever.

While I'm 1000% on board with prosecuting these guys I think the end answer isn't going to be easy as you're going to need to look for state crimes. Then these guys will claim federal immunity, which will then be tied up in the courts for years, and I fully expect SCOTUS to throw as many wrenches in the works as possible.

This isn't to say we shouldn't do it, as we absolutely should, but it's not going to be fast or easy I expect.
 
fskimospy said:
I think there is a VERY strong likelihood that on his way out Trump issues a mass pardon for crimes committed by government officials from 2025-2029 or whatever.

While I'm 1000% on board with prosecuting these guys I think the end answer isn't going to be easy as you're going to need to look for state crimes. Then these guys will claim federal immunity, which will then be tied up in the courts for years, and I fully expect SCOTUS to throw as many wrenches in the works as possible.

This isn't to say we shouldn't do it, as we absolutely should, but it's not going to be fast or easy I expect.
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There will also inevitably be people missed even in a mass pardon like executives who are literally bribing the president and his underlings. Straight to jail.
 
brycejones said:
Heritage had project 2025, Democrats need a similar approach that focuses on collecting evidence and lines of inquiry so that if they win in 2028 the DoJ can move very quickly to bring cases. No more fucking around for the first 3 years of an administration and then watching the clock get run out.
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Pritzker has already set something up in Illinois to collect and preserve evidence.
 
K1052 said:
There will also inevitably be people missed even in a mass pardon like executives who are literally bribing the president and his underlings. Straight to jail.
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As Nuremberg taught us, at the end of the day, you need to prosecute the heads and higher-ups. Others may end up getting off an slinking back into the shadows, so ce la vie on that front.
 
brycejones said:
Heritage had project 2025, Democrats need a similar approach that focuses on collecting evidence and lines of inquiry so that if they win in 2028 the DoJ can move very quickly to bring cases. No more fucking around for the first 3 years of an administration and then watching the clock get run out.
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Merrick Garland will definitely go down in history as a failed and feckless AG. His reticence to move quickly has led us to where we are right now. Jack Smith should’ve been on the case at a minimum one year previously.

He was afraid of that good ol double standard of being called political which was always going to happen. He let that condition the alacrity of action.

fskimospy said:
I think there is a VERY strong likelihood that on his way out Trump issues a mass pardon for crimes committed by government officials from 2025-2029 or whatever.

While I'm 1000% on board with prosecuting these guys I think the end answer isn't going to be easy as you're going to need to look for state crimes. Then these guys will claim federal immunity, which will then be tied up in the courts for years, and I fully expect SCOTUS to throw as many wrenches in the works as possible.

This isn't to say we shouldn't do it, as we absolutely should, but it's not going to be fast or easy I expect.
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Pretty obvious that the pardon power needs to be significantly restricted. It’s probably the biggest flaw in the US Constitution. But that will require an amendment and that’s never gonna happen.
 
jdubs03 said:
Merrick Garland will definitely go down in history as a failed and feckless AG. His reticence to move quickly has led us to where we are right now. Jack Smith should’ve been on the case at a minimum one year previously.

He was afraid of that good ol double standard of being called political which was always going to happen. He let that condition the alacrity of action.


Pretty obvious that the pardon power needs to be significantly restricted. It’s probably the biggest flaw in the US Constitution. But that will require an amendment and that’s never gonna happen.
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Really this all comes from the corruption of SCOTUS - solve that problem and you solve most others. The real issue is the pardon power combined with criminal immunity for the president. We could really just expand SCOTUS and reverse these rulings and that would go a long way.

If the president wasn't immune then if they corruptly pardoned people you could prosecute the president. Thanks to SCOTUS though the president can order people to commit crimes on his behalf and then pardon the criminals. That's a red carpet invitation for an attempted authoritarian takeover.
 
nakedfrog said:
Could just be full-on fascists who are doing well in the markets.

"Well, I don't agree with everything he's doing, but he's hurting illegals and queer people, so I'm satisfied."
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What I've seen is mostly 'things got so bad that Trump had no choice'. This of course does not explain why things are much worse in America now than they were in November 2024.
 
fskimospy said:
Really this all comes from the corruption of SCOTUS - solve that problem and you solve most others. The real issue is the pardon power combined with criminal immunity for the president. We could really just expand SCOTUS and reverse these rulings and that would go a long way.

If the president wasn't immune then if they corruptly pardoned people you could prosecute the president. Thanks to SCOTUS though the president can order people to commit crimes on his behalf and then pardon the criminals. That's a red carpet invitation for an attempted authoritarian takeover.
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No doubt. But that court will not get expanded. The only way is a blue tsunami of astonishing proportions in 2026 which then continues into 2028. We’d need a full on FDR type situation that lasts at least 3 to 4 Presidential election cycles to implement and solidify that.
Pens1566 said:
This is an interesting point (that I tend to agree with). Along with all the permanent changes that Fat/Stupid Hitler is making to the WH, these aren't behaviors of people that think their position is temporary.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036394654979993700
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There will be a complete societal and economic breakdown if that occurs. Wealth inequality is already worse than the 1920s. Shit will really hit the fan.
 
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fskimospy said:
What I've seen is mostly 'things got so bad that Trump had no choice'. This of course does not explain why things are much worse in America now than they were in November 2024.
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Well, yeah, it was obvious that any negative impact would be blamed on Biden and Obama, pretty sure I said as much back before he actually took office again.
We even got a little bonus shade thrown at President Newsom.
 
jdubs03 said:
No doubt. But that court will not get expanded. The only way is a blue tsunami of astonishing proportions in 2026 which then continues into 2028. We need a full on FDR type situation that lasts at least 3 to 4 Presidential election cycles.

There will be a complete societal and economic breakdown if that occurs. Wealth inequality is already worse than the 1920s. Shit will really hit the fan.
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I agree it will not be easy to expand the court but really all you need is a one time majority with 50 senate votes willing to do it. I think you can get to 45 votes for that without too much trouble but the last five will be tough. Once you've nuked the filibuster and expanded the court you can confirm as many justices as you want with a simple majority.

And no, I do not care if the GOP then turns around and tries to do the same thing next time they have a majority.
 
K1052 said:
If I'm the next D president I hire Tish James as AG and send every thieving motherfucker in this admin to prison. I'm sure all the fired/resigned DOJ lawyers will be eager to put in the overtime.
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Preet Bharara​


His office prosecuted the Italian mafia, convicting four out of the Five Families. Bharara similarly headed various counter-terrorism probes and cases, particularly against Al-Qaeda. His office used a variety of unconventional tactics such as wiretapping and asset seizure; he prosecuted nearly 100 Wall Street executives for insider trading and securities fraud using these legal methods. Bharara closed settlements with the four largest banks in the country and shut down multiple hedge funds. Known for his technocratic approach to prosecution, he convicted a number of Democratic and Republican politicians on public corruption charges. Bharara occasionally pursued criminals extraterritorially. Following a 2013 Russian money laundering investigation, Russian officials permanently banned him from entering Russia.

And he doesn’t like trump
 
brycejones said:
Heritage had project 2025, Democrats need a similar approach that focuses on collecting evidence and lines of inquiry so that if they win in 2028 the DoJ can move very quickly to bring cases. No more fucking around for the first 3 years of an administration and then watching the clock get run out.
Click to expand...
www.ibtimes.co.uk

Illinois Democratic Governor Proposes 'Project 2029' to Target Trump Officials With Prosecutions for Breaking Laws

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker has outlined Project 2029, calling for Democrats to pursue legal action against Trump officials and law‑enforcement agents accused of breaking the law.
www.ibtimes.co.uk www.ibtimes.co.uk

how's this?
 
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