Originally posted by: preslove
Different branches of the governmentn generate massive quantities of what if scenarios. This way when a situation happens, they have a skeleton of planning to respond with.
You, sir have no idea what you are talking about. Contingency plans are generally drawn up by LIEUTENANT COLONEL'S and filed away, literally put on a shelf, only to be uncovered if that contingency arises. A document NEVER comes before a sitting president unless someone is actively advocating a policy. My grandfather as a lieutenant colonel created a contingency plan for the invasion of Saudi Arabia in the 1950's, but that document never reached the desk President of United States. Why? Because no one in the white house or the pentagon was preparing/planning to invade the Saudi peninsula.
Close, but no cigar this time. I regret to inform you that DoD has changed tremendously since the 50's.
These "contingency plans" are commonly refered to as OPLANs. OPLANs are now drawn up by committees consisting of field grade and general officers from the four branches as well as other entities in collaboration with DoD. Additional entities include, but are not limited to, the NSA, CIA, FBI, Rand Corporation, USCG, war colleges, contractors and sometimes even universities operating under grants, depending upon scenario complexity.
"LIEUTENANT COLONEL'S" are not the only personnel with any rank working intimately on such matters and in fact are typically some of the lowest ranking members in specific teams. While officers in the grade of O-4 and O-5 may actually physically write/edit the plans on a word processor or gather information because they are so low on the proverbial totem pole at the Pentagon, committees usually chaired by general grade officers perform comprehensive evaluation processes.
The theater of operation or projected conflict with a potential adversary almost always dictates the sophistication and inclusion of related outside agencies. For example, the OPLAN outlining the defense of West Germany during the 1970-80s included enormous input and collaboration from the CIA, State Department, NSA, USCG, West German government, Bundeswehr, NATO and NASA, just to name a few. Liasons exist and have existed at the Pentagon for a purpose.
Another example was the OPLAN for the targeting of the Soviet Union with a nuclear strike/counterstrike. This particular plan fell under a USAF four-star general. In conjunction with research performed by MIT, Johns-Hopkins and the standard plethora of governmental input, the plan was constantly revised as the situation evolved.
Today, all OPLANs, except those considered to have a negligible impact on the nation in the event of failure through implementation (i.e. declaration of war by Costa Rica), are constantly refined through a number of methods. Some of these methods include tradtional research, wargaming, simulations, intelligence collection, geopolitics, risk and availabilty of assets.