The oldest message I can retrieve is September 18, 2003. I lost it with Syzgy over his belief that we'd be setting up a democracy in Iraq. It's hard to read because Sy wasn't always using full sentences. Opinion then: Iraq will be an American failure. Opinion now, unchanged. Message follows.
Syzygy, you better start setting up an alternative name for Anandtech because if people remember just how wrong you are, it's going to be hard for you to live around here. If you think that "the future establishment of legitimate democratic institutions. additionally, you have the introduction of the kind of transparent and accountable government that is a true rarity in that part of the world" is in the cards, then you must be incredibly naive. I could teach my dog to type before we could impose a transparent, open democratic government in Iraq.
I'll tell you what will happen. We'll hang around there for a while, having soldiers killed every day. We'll put more money in, thus throwing good money after bad. The $60 billion last year and the $87 billion this year are only the beginning. Eventually political pressure in the U.S. will mount and we'll set up another pest hole government, leave, and declare victory. Eventually (and I mean five or ten years) our pest hole government will be overthrown and replaced with a home grown pest hole government.
You were, by implication, promised a short, successful war here with the people throwing flowers at us. How did that come out? And Syzygy, here's a thought problem for extra credit. How well has bashing people worked for Israel? I'm sorry for putting this on such an ad hominim basis, but it's completely ridiculous to think that we can or will install a democratice government.
Heck, maybe I shouldn't have candy coated this.