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Okay, so where's the Canadian dollar heading?

R

Riprorin

Banned
I have some Canadian money that I'm thinking about converting to US $'s. I have enough that exchange rate fluctuations are fairly significant.

Where do you think the Canadian dollar's going to top out?

Start polishing up your crystal balls.
 
If the Chinese break their yuan away from the US dollar (or worse, OPEC breaks oil away from the dollar standard), the US dollar could be well below the Canadian dollar very quickly. Inflation could also skyrocket (along with interest rates).

Time will tell....
 
Not really legitimate, just street whispering that was mentioned on the News. Wouldn't be too surprised if it did though, the $Canadian has been undervalued for years now, overlooked as International Investors were sinking their money into the $US for security reasons. Canadian governments(including many Provincial governments) are operating with healthy Surplusses now and Public Debts are way down from the crisis levels of the early '90's. Job Creation is still very high, Oil prices are especially beneficial, and GDP Growth is still at or near the highest amongst the Industrialized Nations. As long as the $US keeps falling, the value of the $CDN will keep rising. There was a temporary selloff(1 day) of the $CDN after some weaker than expected data(Ithink it was GDP growth, but I don't recall), but he next day it went up some more.

Unless something dramatic happens, it will likely hold its' current value for some time.
 
The Banks' investiment papers are suggesting that our dollar could still go up, but they are not outright predicting it. Since our economy is so tied to your own, the only thing that would really affect our dollar vis a vis yours is what is happening within our two countries. Since our country is basically on cruise control, it's all up to your economy. If stuff gets funky with the Yuan, or interest rates, and mortgage numbers go rediculously out of whack down there, then what happens is gonna be wierd. On one hand, your dollar will tank, on the other, your dollar tanking will seriously disrupt our economy, leading to skittish investors here. What's it at right now, 85c? I'd if I were you, just to avoid the possibility of weirdness. If you don't think weirdness is gonna happen, you could leave it in, these levels are not going to go down anytime soon.

Currency speculation is a strange and risky occupation. You could diversify it into the yen and the Euro. Or buy Yuan, they're a bargain right now, and they can't keep it pegged to yours forever, if it stays down.
 
Originally posted by: Riprorin
Your predictions aren't looking so hot at the moment.
Click to expand...

True, so true. The way it's falling right now it looks like it could down quite a bit from it's current value.
 
well you do realize that it's not the canadian dollar that is the problem...
it is staying a fairly constant course our inflation is sticking, rates are sticking, positive revenue sticking, no wars...etc

the problem is the US dollar which is flying all over pending stock buying, war news, euro buying, oil prices, gold prices, deficits.

basically it all comes down to american sentiment. I wouldnt listen to canadians and i'd expect some of the economic fear mongers to overshoot the forcasts. I'd look at professional forcasts for just US$...as i can garantee the CAN$ is not going to fluctuate that much...the valuation against the greenback is far more valuable for your needs.

that being said. i have not seen bush turn down a spending bill, i expect iraq to go on for a good year, i expect higher oil (OPEC announced increase), stock buying is typically much much higher in the latter half of a presidents term (now...take into account that bush is in for another term) so the 2 year rule doesnt apply...and finally i do see iraq clearing up a bit...

soooooo....even though i told you not to listen to canadians...there's my 2 cents.
im not going to give you a value of what to sell at...but the above will give indicators...just pay attention to the news...(iraq, deficit, dow, gold oil) and hedge appropiately.

also...if you have a large amount of canadian funds...why not sell in steps..instead of one shoting it.
i do think canadian money...esp canadian stocks are a safe place to be atm.
 
Originally posted by: sandorski
Originally posted by: Riprorin
Your predictions aren't looking so hot at the moment.
Click to expand...

True, so true. The way it's falling right now it looks like it could down quite a bit from it's current value.
Click to expand...

The Bank of Canada didn't raise interest rates along with everyone else this week in an attempt to slow the rapid climb of the dollar. If it goes up too quickly, our exports will be hurt as foreign markets won't be able to afford as much of our goods. The bank probably wants to hold at around 80-85 cents US for a little while, and then have a nice slow rise to par in a year or two.
 
Originally posted by: Stunt
well you do realize that it's not the canadian dollar that is the problem...
it is staying a fairly constant course our inflation is sticking, rates are sticking, positive revenue sticking, no wars...etc

the problem is the US dollar which is flying all over pending stock buying, war news, euro buying, oil prices, gold prices, deficits.

basically it all comes down to american sentiment. I wouldnt listen to canadians and i'd expect some of the economic fear mongers to overshoot the forcasts. I'd look at professional forcasts for just US$...as i can garantee the CAN$ is not going to fluctuate that much...the valuation against the greenback is far more valuable for your needs.

that being said. i have not seen bush turn down a spending bill, i expect iraq to go on for a good year, i expect higher oil (OPEC announced increase), stock buying is typically much much higher in the latter half of a presidents term (now...take into account that bush is in for another term) so the 2 year rule doesnt apply...and finally i do see iraq clearing up a bit...

soooooo....even though i told you not to listen to canadians...there's my 2 cents.
im not going to give you a value of what to sell at...but the above will give indicators...just pay attention to the news...(iraq, deficit, dow, gold oil) and hedge appropiately.

also...if you have a large amount of canadian funds...why not sell in steps..instead of one shoting it.
i do think canadian money...esp canadian stocks are a safe place to be atm.
Click to expand...

Amercian citizens aren't allowed to buy Canadian securities.
 
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