Oil's Biggest Drop in 17 years!

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LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Naustica
Tell me about it. I got shaken out yesterday on my USO Sept $95 puts. Opened 10 put contracts at $3.95 in the morning only to close it at $3.70 after oil broke $121. I got faked out by the break of $121. I thought since it broke through $120 resistance, it was headed back to $129-130. :eek: Sept $95 puts closed at $5.66 today. Instead of the $295 loss, I would have had $1,710 gain.

Discipline dictated I take the loss since it broke through my defined risk. But missing out on nice play money stings.

Gotta love technical analysis. Ohhh wait, there hasn't been one peer reviewed statistical study that has shown it works.
 

xanis

Lifer
Sep 11, 2005
17,571
8
0
Cheapest I've seen has been $3.51 at an off-brand station near my girlfriend's house.
 

TraumaRN

Diamond Member
Jun 5, 2005
6,893
63
91
Actually gas did something weird here in Michigan, half the stations I saw had went back up to 3.89-3.95 while the other half were still at 3.67-3.76.

Kinda shows me how fast some stations are willing to jack the prices for extra profit. Not that I can blame them with so many gas stations going out of business lately.
 

Skeeedunt

Platinum Member
Oct 7, 2005
2,777
3
76
Originally posted by: Naustica
Tell me about it. I got shaken out yesterday on my USO Sept $95 puts. Opened 10 put contracts at $3.95 in the morning only to close it at $3.70 after oil broke $121. I got faked out by the break of $121. I thought since it broke through $120 resistance, it was headed back to $129-130. :eek: Sept $95 puts closed at $5.66 today. Instead of the $295 loss, I would have had $1,710 gain.

Discipline dictated I take the loss since it broke through my defined risk. But missing out on nice play money stings.

Do you consider yourself a 'criminal speculator'? Would you say that you've 'lost your ass'? If you answered yes to both of these questions, I'm sure someone would love to hear from you.
 

AbAbber2k

Diamond Member
Mar 1, 2005
6,474
1
0
If demand is down, they have to make up for lost profits by upping the price. If demand is high, reserves are lower and the possibility of running out looms over head which means no FUTURE profits... up the price to curb demand and make up for potential future losses! It's win-win for the oil companies.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
Let's dispel a myth right now.

Gas prices will ALWAYS trend upward, from now until we run out of it.

Yes, you get small drops now and then; it dropped from $4 to $3.70 over the past few weeks. But overall, since the beginning of the year, we're way up.

We'll hold in the upper-3s for a little bit, then approach $4 again in the winter time. Expect mid-to-upper-4s next year.
 

SampSon

Diamond Member
Jan 3, 2006
7,160
1
0
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Let's dispel a myth right now.

Gas prices will ALWAYS trend upward, from now until we run out of it.

Yes, you get small drops now and then; it dropped from $4 to $3.70 over the past few weeks. But overall, since the beginning of the year, we're way up.

We'll hold in the upper-3s for a little bit, then approach $4 again in the winter time. Expect mid-to-upper-4s next year.
There are market analysists out there who may disagree with you.

 

EKKC

Diamond Member
May 31, 2005
5,895
0
0
Originally posted by: Argo
Dang - I should start selling some of my oil stocks I guess :(

if you are invested in big oil i think you're fine. they will always make profit since it's a necessity, and if you're thinking long term, i'm thinking it will only get worse year to year -- spikes to $180 next summer, back down, then to $200 the next, and so on and so forth. and the big oil companies will always sell it to consumers with their own gain. it's just that if demands are down, they may fail to meet expectations in the short term quarterly reports.

 

Argo

Lifer
Apr 8, 2000
10,045
0
0
Originally posted by: EKKC
Originally posted by: Argo
Dang - I should start selling some of my oil stocks I guess :(

if you are invested in big oil i think you're fine. they will always make profit since it's a necessity, and if you're thinking long term, i'm thinking it will only get worse year to year -- spikes to $180 next summer, back down, then to $200 the next, and so on and so forth. and the big oil companies will always sell it to consumers with their own gain. it's just that if demands are down, they may fail to meet expectations in the short term quarterly reports.

No big oil - mostly oil drills and exploration companies. The thought was that as easily accessible oil gets scarce need for all these services will go up. Of course there's always alternative energy risk.
 

Special K

Diamond Member
Jun 18, 2000
7,098
0
76
Originally posted by: duragezic
Yeah I've been watching the markets a little (just a glance a couple of times per day) and I usually read the market report on CNN.com. I admit I'm a total noob when it comes to the market but I find most of the daily reports to make no sense. Like this or that rallies and surges on oil, then the next day there are all these fears, then the next day stock rallies on oil drop of a whole $1.10 or something. Like one day they are all fearful of a recession then it just "surges" and all this shit.

Kind of funny thing I've noticed anyway.

Many investors are not rational. There have been books, papers, studies, etc. published on this. ;)

 

boomhower

Diamond Member
Sep 13, 2007
7,228
19
81
Am I the only one that thinks its odd that the price of gas changes even thought its the same gas that is already in the tanks of the gas station? And no I am not complaining about it just going up, down as well. Around here most stations seem to only get about a truck a week yet the price changes every day. Just seems odd.
 

Eos

Diamond Member
Jun 14, 2000
3,463
17
81
Originally posted by: boomhower
Am I the only one that thinks its odd that the price of gas changes even thought its the same gas that is already in the tanks of the gas station? And no I am not complaining about it just going up, down as well. Around here most stations seem to only get about a truck a week yet the price changes every day. Just seems odd.

A truck and trailer only holds about 9000 gallons. Average fill up being in the 12 gallon range, that's only 750 cars. I'm not sure that station woulds till be open with only 750 customers per week.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: dud
Listen, when the price of "oil" goes up we see a rise in the price of gas ... almost immediately. Now that the price of oil is declining I would expect the same.

Please don't defend the oil companies ...

You're kidding right?

ATers idolize not just the oil companies but all corporations.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Eli
Originally posted by: dud
Listen, when the price of "oil" goes up we see a rise in the price of gas ... almost immediately. Now that the price of oil is declining I would expect the same.

Please don't defend the oil companies ...
No, we don't.

The oil companies have nothing to do with the price of oil.

Educate yourself.

Interesting since Oil Companies have traders on the floor of the stock exchange, may I suggest you educate yourself.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: DeathBUA
Actually gas did something weird here in Michigan,

half the stations I saw had went back up to 3.89-3.95

while the other half were still at 3.67-3.76.

Kinda shows me how fast some stations are willing to jack the prices for extra profit. Not that I can blame them with so many gas stations going out of business lately.

Same happened here in New Jersey but my loyal fans in here claim it's not possible.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Skeeedunt
Originally posted by: Naustica
Tell me about it. I got shaken out yesterday on my USO Sept $95 puts. Opened 10 put contracts at $3.95 in the morning only to close it at $3.70 after oil broke $121. I got faked out by the break of $121. I thought since it broke through $120 resistance, it was headed back to $129-130. :eek: Sept $95 puts closed at $5.66 today. Instead of the $295 loss, I would have had $1,710 gain.

Discipline dictated I take the loss since it broke through my defined risk. But missing out on nice play money stings.

Do you consider yourself a 'criminal speculator'?

Would you say that you've 'lost your ass'?

If you answered yes to both of these questions, I'm sure someone would love to hear from you.

Yes, I would love to interview him after he has been put away for his crimes.
 

rbV5

Lifer
Dec 10, 2000
12,632
0
0
Originally posted by: boomhower
Am I the only one that thinks its odd that the price of gas changes even thought its the same gas that is already in the tanks of the gas station? And no I am not complaining about it just going up, down as well. Around here most stations seem to only get about a truck a week yet the price changes every day. Just seems odd.

Get this; Gasoline futures are traded just like Crude Oil futures...on the commodity market :confused: ;)
 

sunzt

Diamond Member
Nov 27, 2003
3,076
3
81
Gas stations don't buy gas everyday, thus their prices don't reflect changes in oil prices immediately. Wait a week, or whenever the gas station has to buy gas again.
 

JohnCU

Banned
Dec 9, 2000
16,528
4
0
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Skeeedunt
Originally posted by: Naustica
Tell me about it. I got shaken out yesterday on my USO Sept $95 puts. Opened 10 put contracts at $3.95 in the morning only to close it at $3.70 after oil broke $121. I got faked out by the break of $121. I thought since it broke through $120 resistance, it was headed back to $129-130. :eek: Sept $95 puts closed at $5.66 today. Instead of the $295 loss, I would have had $1,710 gain.

Discipline dictated I take the loss since it broke through my defined risk. But missing out on nice play money stings.

Do you consider yourself a 'criminal speculator'?

Would you say that you've 'lost your ass'?

If you answered yes to both of these questions, I'm sure someone would love to hear from you.

Yes, I would love to interview him after he has been put away for his crimes.

how can you be put away for something that isn't a crime?