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Oil is getting scarce . . . for Big Oil

B

BaliBabyDoc

Lifer
CNN Money
LONDON (FORTUNE) - Judging by the tens of billions (and yes that's billions with a B) the big oil companies are reporting in earnings for 2005, you'd think this is as good as it gets for companies like Chevron, Exxon, Shell and BP. Their shares are up, they've got a friend in the White House (even if he has been daring to talk about alternative energy), and they literally have more cash then they know what to do with. Heck, when was the last time it was cooler to be a member of Houston's Petroleum Club than be a tech type in Austin?

Look a few lines down from the blowout profits, though, and you'll spot something that's being quietly discussed in the boardroom but not maybe not at the Petroleum Club -- weak production gains and a stunning inability to replace the reserves the giants are pumping right now.
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"This is the big story for these companies," says veteran industry consultant and occasional gadfly Matthew Simmons. "They're so big, they're having a very hard time growing. The only thing they really know how to do well is buy back stock."
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Because if the oil giants can't find new fields, going forward they'll essentially be liquidating the source of future profits.
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I would play some violin music but ultimately it's the consumer that's going to pay the price if we really are entering a period of reduced production. Even if production holds steady we are in a world of hurt if China and India decide they REALLY like cars and all the other crude consuming trappings of "development."

 
If they had some smarts, they'd develope the replacement for Oil before someone else does and puts them out of business for good.
 
Of course oil won't be found as easily as in the past. All of the low hanging branches have already been picked. Logically, you just have to climb higher. They are saying Canada has oil field reserves larger than the ME, yet they haven't been tapped due to cost. When revenues catch up with cost, you get more exploration and drilling in costlier areas. It's natural economics.
 
Originally posted by: BaliBabyDocEven if production holds steady we are in a world of hurt if China and India decide they REALLY like cars and all the other crude consuming trappings of "development."
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I've read that there is a point in the economic development of nations where they start buying a lot of cars. That point is when they hit a ~$10000/year income level. If China keeps growing at that rate (whether or not they do is tough to tell) they will hit that level on 27 years. We'll probably be past peak oil by then. Oil will be super expensive.

 
Originally posted by: zephyrprime
Originally posted by: BaliBabyDocEven if production holds steady we are in a world of hurt if China and India decide they REALLY like cars and all the other crude consuming trappings of "development."
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I've read that there is a point in the economic development of nations where they start buying a lot of cars. That point is when they hit a ~$10000/year income level. If China keeps growing at that rate (whether or not they do is tough to tell) they will hit that level on 27 years. We'll probably be past peak oil by then. Oil will be super expensive.
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Yeah that is where I'm worried....Can China be like the USA when it comes to car culture? I think that would strain things too much. We can only afford one country acting like the USA when it comes to transportation (ie: each family owning like three cards or so), and even then I would prefer for us to look for a better alternative. But considering how for a while now everything is about suburbia, I don't forsee our culture changing about it. Even Europe doesn't take it to the degree we do, but we are much more sprawled out
 
Originally posted by: zephyrprime
Originally posted by: BaliBabyDocEven if production holds steady we are in a world of hurt if China and India decide they REALLY like cars and all the other crude consuming trappings of "development."
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I've read that there is a point in the economic development of nations where they start buying a lot of cars. That point is when they hit a ~$10000/year income level. If China keeps growing at that rate (whether or not they do is tough to tell) they will hit that level on 27 years. We'll probably be past peak oil by then. Oil will be super expensive.
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China and India are making new rules. Both are exploring "cheap" automobiles to bring to the masses. Now if they make a bunch of 1500lbs vehicles with 1.0L biodiesel engines . . . no problem . . . except for emissions.

But at some point quite soon China and India will be producing a lot of cars for their domestic markets and for export.
 
Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
Originally posted by: zephyrprime
Originally posted by: BaliBabyDocEven if production holds steady we are in a world of hurt if China and India decide they REALLY like cars and all the other crude consuming trappings of "development."
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I've read that there is a point in the economic development of nations where they start buying a lot of cars. That point is when they hit a ~$10000/year income level. If China keeps growing at that rate (whether or not they do is tough to tell) they will hit that level on 27 years. We'll probably be past peak oil by then. Oil will be super expensive.
Click to expand...

China and India are making new rules. Both are exploring "cheap" automobiles to bring to the masses. Now if they make a bunch of 1500lbs vehicles with 1.0L biodiesel engines . . . no problem . . . except for emissions.

But at some point quite soon China and India will be producing a lot of cars for their domestic markets and for export.
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In terms of CO2 emissions, biodiesel has net emissions of 0, because the carbons in it come from contemporary living material. All of this carbon has been recently fixed, hence while the emissions are grossly fairly high, the net ecological effect should be near 0.

A biodiesel/electric hybrid should be an amazingly efficient, yet powerful combination. I wouldn't be surprised to see 150 horsepower engines with 100+ mpg.
 
When big cheeses like billionaire Rainwater post at http://www.lifeafterthecrash.net/ you know there is a problem. This site, on page 2, also go on to debunk all y'alls silly illusions and positing of alternatives.

Got acres? Got access to fresh water? Got an OX or two horse?
 
Originally posted by: sandorski
If they had some smarts, they'd develope the replacement for Oil before someone else does and puts them out of business for good.
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You don't just up and up make a new energy source.
 
Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
Originally posted by: sandorski
If they had some smarts, they'd develope the replacement for Oil before someone else does and puts them out of business for good.
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You don't just up and up make a new energy source.
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well we've got enough proven coal in this country to last us another 200 years. then there is nuclear power, which would become increasingly attractive as natural gas prices increase. and there are the oil shales under the rocky mountains, which could equal all the proven oil reserves + already pumped oil combined (we've burned about 1 trillion barrels and proved another trillion). at a high enough oil price the shales would be attractive.

and there are other things like tidal, wave, etc power. acres of floats at sea pulling on flywheels to produce electricity? might happen.

yes, energy will probably be more expensive after oil dries up. oil is, after all, essentially free (stuff comes out of the ground by itself if you drill in the right place). but once other supplies come online in sufficient quantities they'll be pretty cheap too (nuclear can be ridiculously cheap, for instance). not much is quite as portable as oil is (batteries are ridiculously bad, for instance), but there are probably ways to convert, say, nuclear energy to a hydrocarbon chain.

one of the things i'm interested in is the algae grown in vats along the exhaust pipes for coal. now, it wouldn't be as environmentally friendly as normal biodiesel (because a lot of the carbon is just the carbon from the coal), but you do get to use the carbon twice before it is released, which is quite an improvement. and you can make ethanol from the algae as well.
 
Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
Originally posted by: sandorski
If they had some smarts, they'd develope the replacement for Oil before someone else does and puts them out of business for good.
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You don't just up and up make a new energy source.
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That is true, however, since they're rolling in $billions they should put it to good use.
 
Originally posted by: Zebo
When big cheeses like billionaire Rainwater post at http://www.lifeafterthecrash.net/ you know there is a problem. This site, on page 2, also go on to debunk all y'alls silly illusions and positing of alternatives.

Got acres? Got access to fresh water? Got an OX or two horse?
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I think that link is broken, but I've seen the site before. I'm not really surprised that the big money types are getting all worried. They may have a lot of money, but in many ways they are just like the rest of the people wringing their hands. But you know who you don't see wriging their hands? Engineers and scientists? Because we know that there is always a way around a problem, no matter how large. There are many possible solutions, that "debunking" shows a retarded lack of knowledge of the science behind the potential future solutions.

Repeat after me: We are NOT going to progress backwards. It's not going to happen. When we outgrow the resources of this planet, we'll be on to the next ones. People predicting the end of technological development have always been wrong before, and they will continue to be for some time now. Thinking our current energy solutions are the be all, end all is just silly.
 
Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
Originally posted by: sandorski
If they had some smarts, they'd develope the replacement for Oil before someone else does and puts them out of business for good.
Click to expand...

You don't just up and up make a new energy source.
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Well no, you don't "make" a new energy source, you discover it. And there are lots of options out there, with more to come.
 
Yup wrong link
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

I forgot oil in there. so many things are about to crash it's easy to do to.. The dollar - the stock market - oil. I believe we are smack dab in the middle of a trifecta of disasters which will make the great depression look like the roaring 20's.
 
Originally posted by: Zebo
Yup wrong link
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

I forgot oil in there. so many things are about to crash it's easy to do to.. The dollar - the stock market - oil. I believe we are smack dab in the middle of a trifecta of disasters which will make the great depression look like the roaring 20's.
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Not quite yet, Zebo. But it is the end of the beginning and a new world will unveil before our eyes in the next oh... maybe 10 years.
A shifting of economic power has occurred already with the US being the big looser in that scheme. We will have to play ball with the other teams on their terms or they will take their balls and bats and fields and umpires and fans and not invite us to play at all. We sustain our mighty might at the whim of the economics that has always enabled it. That is now problematic at best.
Good thing the Rapture will occur soon and if that don't occur my tenure here will be close to its expiration 😀 ... i really don't want to be around when all hell breaks loose... and it will... it must! The human species is so predictable... the monkey what talks.. :Q
 
Originally posted by: Zebo
When big cheeses like billionaire Rainwater post at http://www.lifeafterthecrash.net/ you know there is a problem. This site, on page 2, also go on to debunk all y'alls silly illusions and positing of alternatives.

Got acres? Got access to fresh water? Got an OX or two horse?
Click to expand...


I read that after Zebo sent me a pm a couple weeks ago. It's worthwhile reading and thought provoking. If it's only half-accurate, it still doesn't bode well. It's all about Peak Oil. Also, visit http://www.PeakOil.com which has its own very active message board populated by people discussing how they'll live after our petroleum-based economy collapses.
 
Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper
Originally posted by: Zebo
When big cheeses like billionaire Rainwater post at http://www.lifeafterthecrash.net/ you know there is a problem. This site, on page 2, also go on to debunk all y'alls silly illusions and positing of alternatives.

Got acres? Got access to fresh water? Got an OX or two horse?
Click to expand...


I read that after Zebo sent me a pm a couple weeks ago. It's worthwhile reading and thought provoking. If it's only half-accurate, it still doesn't bode well. It's all about Peak Oil. Also, visit http://www.PeakOil.com which has its own very active message board populated by people discussing how they'll live after our petroleum-based economy collapses.
Click to expand...



NOne of them discuss that are viable alternatives that exist today. Sure oil is important, but it can and will be replaced. Oil gets more expensive, so gas will be replaced with coal to liquids. Coal gets more expensive, it get replaced with nuclear, solar and wind. While the entire process continues cars get more effeceint and rely more on batteries. It is hardly a doomsday scenerio.
 
There is still more oil in the ground in known reserves than all the oil that has ever been pumped out of the ground in the history of humanity. It is conservatively estimated that, at our current rate of production, there is still enough oil to last more than 200 years.

The sky ain't fallin', Chicken Littles...
 
Originally posted by: Vic
There is still more oil in the ground in known reserves than all the oil that has ever been pumped out of the ground in the history of humanity. It is conservatively estimated that, at our current rate of production, there is still enough oil to last more than 200 years.[/b

The sky ain't fallin', Chicken Littles...
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source?
 
Originally posted by: OS
Originally posted by: Vic
There is still more oil in the ground in known reserves than all the oil that has ever been pumped out of the ground in the history of humanity. It is conservatively estimated that, at our current rate of production, there is still enough oil to last more than 200 years.

The sky ain't fallin', Chicken Littles...
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source?
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I read that about coal in the US, but I haven't seen that about oil. I did read that there is more oil in the ground than we have used so far but that it might not be possible to extract it.

 
They might try to migrate over to natural gas.

There's probably some oil in Antarctica. I can't say how much though, or how easy it would be to drill it.
 
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