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Oil Down $2, Speculators Bet on Kerry Win

Todd33

Todd33

Diamond Member
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices fell heavily on Monday, taking U.S. crude below $50 on speculation that a U.S. election win for Senator John Kerry could soothe the geopolitical friction that helped spark this year's crude rally.

U.S. light crude (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) by 1545 GMT (11:45 a.m. EST) was off $1.96 at $49.80 a barrel, after spending nearly a month above $50. London Brent (LCOc1: Quote, Profile, Research) lost $2.18 to $46.80 a barrel.

European and U.S. winter heating fuel futures, the driving force behind the latest leg in oil's record rally, fell even more sharply than crude. London gas oil lost $23.75 to $422 a ton and U.S. heating oil dipped 6.31 cents to $1.401 a gallon.

Energy analysts said a win for the challenger Kerry in Tuesday's U.S. poll could mean lower crude prices than if President Bush is re-elected. Most opinion polls put Bush narrowly ahead.

"Under a Kerry administration we'd likely have a much more interventionist SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) policy," said Jamal Qureshi, market analysts at PFC Energy in Washington.

"And when you look out a bit further, Bush is more likely to be aggressive in the Middle East, particularly in Iran."

PFC is forecasting an average U.S. crude price of $43 a barrel in 2005 should Kerry win, compared to $48 in the event Bush triumphs.

A Bush win could stoke nervousness about U.S. policies in the oil producing Middle East while Kerry is seen as more likely to work through conventional diplomatic channels.

Another crucial difference between Bush and Kerry is their approach to the nation's emergency crude oil stockpile.

The Bush administration continues to add oil to the 670 million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) despite high prices.

Kerry says he would stop filling it at current prices to keep more crude on the market. That difference is important for the world oil market, now suffering a shortage of light, sweet crude, which makes up about 40 percent of the SPR.
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http://www.reuters.com/newsArt...ws&storyID=6678302

The part about Bush being aggresive towards Iran is funny since he ignored them for four years. Looks like some people are expecting a Kerry win, sweeet 🙂
 
If Bush gets blamed for the price of oil rising, he should get credited for the price of oil falling. Too bad the media doesn't think so.
 
Originally posted by: lordtyranus
If Bush gets blamed for the price of oil rising, he should get credited for the price of oil falling. Too bad the media doesn't think so.
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Silly isn't it?😉
 
He gets some credit for his extended family in Saudi Arabia who are turning the spigot on to help him, too bad it's not enough.
 
atleast kerry will atleast consider an energy policy that focuses on renewable sources


(ex: wind power would bring oil down to $30/barrel as the price breaking point for wind power is $30/barrel)
 
so if kerry wins tomorrow...things will get better in Iraq, the economy will rebound and free health care for everyone? YIPPEE!!
 
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
so if kerry wins tomorrow...things will get better in Iraq, the economy will rebound and free health care for everyone? YIPPEE!!
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The hope is that it will start.

 
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
so if kerry wins tomorrow...things will get better in Iraq, the economy will rebound and free health care for everyone? YIPPEE!!
Click to expand...

:roll: :cookie:

At least if Kerry gets in, we can at least Dream again that could happen, under the FLL Club Regime we know there is no chance for any of that.
 
So, if Kerry gets elected I get an automatic "tax" deduction? 🙂

Well, that's all very speculative of course. All you need is one major oil field to have problems or for us to have another large surge in demand. Also, I saw some Saudi guy say the other day that we are more likely to $60/b than $40/b and by a large margin.

-Robert
 
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