OH, TX Must Win's for Clinton

[jonks]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23119050/

Regardless of the outcome today, HRC needs to win Ohio and Texas, comfortably even, to stay in it, and even then may not be ahead in pledged delegates unless she does considerably well there.

While I will continue to think Hillary is the better choice, if after the primaries she is behind in pledged delegates, I will not advocate the supers give her the necessary majority as it would be bad for everyone in the party. If at any point it becomes mathematically impossible for her to go to the convention leading in pledged delegates, she should concede. Obama has built up a ton of momentum not only in the primary race, but heading towards november, and a messy infight will only hurt all democrats.

Until such time however, it's still anybody's game.

 

[Nebor]

If Ron Paul didn't need my Texas vote, I'd be voting for Clinton. :thumbsup:

 

[Fern]

Texas has wierd rules. It's possible for her to win the majority of votes yet end up with fewer delegates.

The black districts in Texas carry much more delgates than the Latino districts. That doesn't bode well for HRC.

Here's a short version of the party rules, which are 11 pages long.

A total of 126 delegates will be awarded based on the outcome of the vote in each of the 31 state senatorial districts.

But the number of delegates available in each district is not equal: Delegates are allocated based on the votes cast in districts in the 2004 and 2006 presidential and gubernatorial elections.

In the heavily urban, black districts of state Sens. Rodney Ellis of Houston and Royce West of Dallas, a good voter turnout in the past two elections means a combined total of 13 delegates are at stake in the two districts on Election Day.

Obama nationally has been winning eight out of 10 black voters, according to network exit polls.

But in the heavily Hispanic districts of state Sens. Juan Hinojosa of McAllen and Eddie Lucio Jr. of Brownsville, election turnout was low, and a combined total of seven delegates are at stake.

Clinton has been taking six of 10 Hispanic votes nationally. So a big South Texas win might not mean as much for Clinton as a big win for Obama in the two black districts.

Ohio might be good state for an Edwards endorsement. He was running at about 20% before dropping out. Can't find any polling more current than the end of Jan (before super Tuesday).

Fern

 

[SSSnail]

If Hillary drops out, mark my words that we'll have a Republican president comes next year.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: SSSnail
If Hillary drops out, mark my words that we'll have a Republican president comes next year.

the election is the democrats to lose... so yeah, I think we'll have a republican president next year too.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: SSSnail
If Hillary drops out, mark my words that we'll have a Republican president comes next year.

Obama is a republican? I think your information is incorrect.

 

[compuwiz1]

Originally posted by: sirjonk
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23119050/

Regardless of the outcome today, HRC needs to win Ohio and Texas, comfortably even, to stay in it, and even then may not be ahead in pledged delegates unless she does considerably well there.

While I will continue to think Hillary is the better choice, if after the primaries she is behind in pledged delegates, I will not advocate the supers give her the necessary majority as it would be bad for everyone in the party. If at any point it becomes mathematically impossible for her to go to the convention leading in pledged delegates, she should concede. Obama has built up a ton of momentum not only in the primary race, but heading towards november, and a messy infight will only hurt all democrats.

Until such time however, it's still anybody's game.

Hey, you're thinking exactly like me on this.

 

[Lemon law]

I tend to agree with the msnbc analysis in the link. Hillary might get one or two of the February primaries, but if she does not do very well on March 4, Obama may very well
win then with a Clinton withdrawal. But with 21 days until then, its a wee mite premature to call her dead yet.

Let the people decide and time will tell is my mantra.

 

[Nebor]

I think neither Hillary or Obama are winners when it comes to the general election. Hillary will motivate HUGE amounts of anti-Hillary voters to go to the polls. And if it comes down to Obama vs. McCain, McCain has more cross-party appeal, plus gets the big GOP base who will hold their nose and vote for McCain, even though he's a liberal douchebag.

The point is, the democrats lose with their candidates, but win with McCain.

 

[Mxylplyx]

Originally posted by: SSSnail
If Hillary drops out, mark my words that we'll have a Republican president comes next year.

I disagree. I think it's the other way around. For me personally, as a traditional Republican, I'm almost hoping for Obama to win. I've bought into his change message. I think Obama has much more potential to be a great president, albeit at the same time he has much more potential to be a disaster.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: Nebor
I think neither Hillary or Obama are winners when it comes to the general election. Hillary will motivate HUGE amounts of anti-Hillary voters to go to the polls. And if it comes down to Obama vs. McCain, McCain has more cross-party appeal, plus gets the big GOP base who will hold their nose and vote for McCain, even though he's a liberal douchebag.

The point is, the democrats lose with their candidates, but win with McCain.

Heh no. I suggest you get used to hearing "President Obama" because that's what you're going to be hearing all the time starting next year.

 

[eleison]

Originally posted by: Nebor
I think neither Hillary or Obama are winners when it comes to the general election. Hillary will motivate HUGE amounts of anti-Hillary voters to go to the polls. And if it comes down to Obama vs. McCain, McCain has more cross-party appeal, plus gets the big GOP base who will hold their nose and vote for McCain, even though he's a liberal douchebag.

The point is, the democrats lose with their candidates, but win with McCain.

Nobody has really attacked Obama. If he wins, it will be interesting. I'm sure theres going to be a lot of skeletons in his closet...

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: SSSnail
If Hillary drops out, mark my words that we'll have a Republican president comes next year.

Quite the opposite. A Hillary nomination will guarantee a Republican president.

 

[Nebor]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: Nebor
I think neither Hillary or Obama are winners when it comes to the general election. Hillary will motivate HUGE amounts of anti-Hillary voters to go to the polls. And if it comes down to Obama vs. McCain, McCain has more cross-party appeal, plus gets the big GOP base who will hold their nose and vote for McCain, even though he's a liberal douchebag.

The point is, the democrats lose with their candidates, but win with McCain.

Heh no. I suggest you get used to hearing "President Obama" because that's what you're going to be hearing all the time starting next year.

I just don't think it will happen. I think McCain has more overall support. Though I would definitely say McCain vs. Obama would be a closer fight than McCain vs. Hillary.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Nebor

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: Nebor
I think neither Hillary or Obama are winners when it comes to the general election. Hillary will motivate HUGE amounts of anti-Hillary voters to go to the polls. And if it comes down to Obama vs. McCain, McCain has more cross-party appeal, plus gets the big GOP base who will hold their nose and vote for McCain, even though he's a liberal douchebag.

The point is, the democrats lose with their candidates, but win with McCain.

Heh no. I suggest you get used to hearing "President Obama" because that's what you're going to be hearing all the time starting next year.

I just don't think it will happen. I think McCain has more overall support. Though I would definitely say McCain vs. Obama would be a closer fight than McCain vs. Hillary.

the only thing that gives me pause about Obama is the fact that he's been losing primaries... seems hard to gauge his overall support by swing voters and centrists from caucuses.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: eleison
Nobody has really attacked Obama. If he wins, it will be interesting. I'm sure theres going to be a lot of skeletons in his closet...

Non-issue. Certainly not as many as there are in Hillary's closet. And who knows how many watches there are still up McCain's ass. I say let them start throwing rocks from their glass houses, and we'll see what happens.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: Nebor
I think neither Hillary or Obama are winners when it comes to the general election. Hillary will motivate HUGE amounts of anti-Hillary voters to go to the polls. And if it comes down to Obama vs. McCain, McCain has more cross-party appeal, plus gets the big GOP base who will hold their nose and vote for McCain, even though he's a liberal douchebag.

The point is, the democrats lose with their candidates, but win with McCain.

I disagree strongly for multiple reasons. Barack will bring the voters out, as has been shown in the primaries. Dems have voted almost 2-1 over Reps in the primaries. The youth vote may very well give him the nomination, and then the presidency.

McCain's probably the best Commander in Chief running, but Iraq is his achilles heel. And it's a monstrous target. No way does he run on "100 years in Iraq" vs Obama's "Out in a year" and win. Unless something seriously untoward happens to a major US city, Mac's war experience is a burden, not a boon.

Third, Mac doesn't have the support of large groups of his base, whereas Obama would likely have the support of almost the entire democratic base. Even if the nose-holders came out to oppose a democrat, it would not be in large enough numbers to beat the dems fed up with a rep in the white house.

 

[nageov3t]

imo, any candidate running on a promise to withdraw from Iraq in a short time period of either a liar or a fool.

 

[eleison]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: Nebor
I think neither Hillary or Obama are winners when it comes to the general election. Hillary will motivate HUGE amounts of anti-Hillary voters to go to the polls. And if it comes down to Obama vs. McCain, McCain has more cross-party appeal, plus gets the big GOP base who will hold their nose and vote for McCain, even though he's a liberal douchebag.

The point is, the democrats lose with their candidates, but win with McCain.

Heh no. I suggest you get used to hearing "President Obama" because that's what you're going to be hearing all the time starting next year.

Maybe. Can you imagine al sharpton and 50 cent greeting each other at the white house:

Al Sharpton: "Yo, Obama.. my n*gga... whasn't up!!"

Obama: "nothing..just hanging at the crib -- check out the helipad!!"

fifty: "yo!!! why you aint got any "brothers" in your securtiy hommy?"

Obama: "no problem.. yet me increase the welfare checks and for all the poor folks and raise the taxes to pay for it, first." Hey!!! 50, didn't you support that b*iytch clinton??

fifty: "no bro... always in with all... you know.. you going to need some bling on that one force one.. maybe some 21's or something.."


Obama: "shitt man, thats nothing.. Got NASA working on 32".. now thats stacked man"...

Al Sharpton: talking about stacked man... why you not call me so often now a days since you become prez.. you going "uncle t*m" on me..

Obama: "helzz's no.. Black as night baby!!!" Next on the agenda is equal rights.. brothers are being discrinated against.. we need more quotaa's and racial equalities..

Al sharpton: sounds you alright... we going to have a million man march soon?

Obama: heck yea!!



---------------------------

Just KIdding.. I'm from Illinois, so I know how eloquent and urban senator Obama can be... just musing...

 

[SSSnail]

Yeah, Obama would win if he gets the nomination, and that your votes actually count. But, that won't happen.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: Nebor

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: Nebor
I think neither Hillary or Obama are winners when it comes to the general election. Hillary will motivate HUGE amounts of anti-Hillary voters to go to the polls. And if it comes down to Obama vs. McCain, McCain has more cross-party appeal, plus gets the big GOP base who will hold their nose and vote for McCain, even though he's a liberal douchebag.

The point is, the democrats lose with their candidates, but win with McCain.

Heh no. I suggest you get used to hearing "President Obama" because that's what you're going to be hearing all the time starting next year.

I just don't think it will happen. I think McCain has more overall support. Though I would definitely say McCain vs. Obama would be a closer fight than McCain vs. Hillary.

Comical. More overall support with who? The kind of Bushie who thinks that GW's handpicked successor is a "liberal douchebag?" You'd have to be farther out of touch with reality than McCain is to think that.

Yaknow, a Republican Senator from Arizona has run for President once before. I hear it didn't go so well.

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: loki8481
imo, any candidate running on a promise to withdraw from Iraq in a short time period of either a liar or a fool.

They're liars.

Their supporters, those who believe them are the fools.

Fern

 

[bl4ckfl4g]

Originally posted by: Nebor
I think neither Hillary or Obama are winners when it comes to the general election. Hillary will motivate HUGE amounts of anti-Hillary voters to go to the polls. And if it comes down to Obama vs. McCain, McCain has more cross-party appeal, plus gets the big GOP base who will hold their nose and vote for McCain, even though he's a liberal douchebag.

The point is, the democrats lose with their candidates, but win with McCain.

I think you are totally wrong. I think there are millions of voters like me that would vote in this order.

1. Obama
2. McCain
3. Hillary

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: SSSnail
If Hillary drops out, mark my words that we'll have a Republican president comes next year.

Quite the opposite. A Hillary nomination will guarantee a Republican president.

Maybe not but i agree that she is weaker against mccain than obama.

 

[Moonbeam]

I don't know anything but I hope Obana wins.