blackangst1
Lifer
aye :thumbsup:
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Oh Boy it's starting..... Black monday dawns again.
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aye :thumbsup:
LegendKiller
Lifer
You guys are pretty fricking funny. The sky isn't falling.
blackangst1
Lifer
lol yeah. Nor is it the beginning of the collapse of the USA economy 🙂
TastesLikeChicken
Lifer
Nope, not by a long shot. The nihilistas sure were excited though.
blackangst1
Lifer
I understand you have a bitter taste in your mouth, but I dont understand why you base your opinion on Jan 1 2001...again, Im not defending GWB, but his effect on DJ is minimal. If you think otherwise, you have to give him credit for the good as well as the bad. For instance
October 9, 2002 bottomed out at 7,286.27
July 19, 2007 all time high above 14,000. That would be a nearly 100% recovery.
Or doesnt that count?
Is it just me or is there an excessive amount of fear mongering going on? I just turned on CNN for 5 minutes while I finished my soup and heard "economic meltdown" about 10 times. I switched to MSNBC and heard "economic crisis" about another 7 times. Since there has been no doom and gloom or asteroids crashing into the earth I think this is a bit much.
Are there really that many people who don't realize these things happen? I mean really? People who think the market can never go anywhere but up? Seriously?
Are there really that many people who don't realize these things happen? I mean really? People who think the market can never go anywhere but up? Seriously?
blackangst1
Lifer
Spot on. Down what....142? rofl thats not even worth reporting.
Engineer
Elite Member
I'll give credit that the market was great until the artifical bubble that created it burst. Bad economic policy couldn't keep the bubble going. If the market finishes under his term at those high levels from here, I'll give some credit. I won't hold my breath.
I'm not sure if I can give credit for good since 3 of the 4 indicies that I've listed have gone negative under his economic policies and term. If that were the case, Bill Clinton would have had the best economic explosion in history (based on a small timeframe and how the markets did in that timeframe - all pre tech bubble burst of course).
blackangst1
Lifer
All you can do is look at history. Typically when the fed cuts rates, the DJ rises. In this case, since we're seeing a sell of, it simply countered the sell off. So to answer your question, yes. I believe it would be down more hadnt the Fed cut rates. How much? It's all speculation, but my guess is around 300-400. But the current drop of 140-150? It isnt worth reporting. Fuckin CNN shouting market meltdown ROFL
BTW this is also the first time in history the Fed has cut rates of any amount BETWEEN sessions. 🙂
blackangst1
Lifer
Yep I stand corrected 🙂
Fern
Elite Member
I never gave Bill Clinton for the economic good times, nor the crash prior to his leaving office.
The President gets way too much blame or credit for economic outcomes.
Most of it goes to businesses themselves. During Bill's time we had Intel, Microsoft and the internet etc.
Some of the results are the fault of the fed, and the Pres has no control there. Tight money supply, low growth. E.g., Greenspan caused the 2000 market crash IMO.
Otherwise, bad or good economic policies are passed by Congress, not the President. The only real economic polices by the gov that have any real effect I can think of ATM are treaties regarding trade or gov regulatory efforts.
IMO, any real economic problems we have now are caused by high oil prices. I believe that's primarily the result of wildly increasing demand form China & India.
I suppose Congress could help somewhat by allowing drilling in ANWR.
I note that the economic "good-times" seemed to have vanished shortly after Dems gained control of Congress. Wonder if that will be a campaign issue in the general election?
Fern
Engineer
Elite Member
Invading countries in the middle east will certainly cause oil prices to spike.
Oh, and according to people in here, the Democrats aren't responsible as there is a "two year" carryover from the previous administration....i.e. Clinton was blamed for the recession of 2001-2003 and not Bush so the same is fair? My opinion: They ALL are to blame. Not one single bastard up in DC has the courage to do what is right with spending and fiscal policy this country and that's to cut spending and get out debt under control.
Indirectly - it's the Fed saying "we're headed towards a recession". Which then leads to people moving money into "safe money" i.e. long term bonds. So while there isn't a direct connection to mortgage rates, there is an indirect connection and the short term rates in general act to drag down long term rates as well...
Engineer
Elite Member
Sort of what I was eluding to by the bolded statement. Price of bonds go up (from demand), interest rates go down and mortgage rates follow. Bond rates have been inching down for some time now. I suspect (though I haven't looked) that mortgage rates are inching down as well.
The president deserves a lot of credit or blame for how the economy does. Talking about '5-8 year cycles nothing can be done about', are people who don't know the history of things like how JFK largely prevented the 'expected' recession through his use of things like accelerating government spending to soften it. Doing nothing has an effect, too, as Bush let the markets go wild and crash with their excessive manupulatins and leverage.
For example, at the middle of the current crisis, 60 Minutes reports, are the credit default swaps which are simply instruments that are insurance for the terrible sub-prime mortgage products, created to get buyers to buy them because they're 'protected', except that since the laws regulate insurance and require capital reserves, the credit default swaps evade those regulations and do the insurance without the reserves, which is why the firms are all folding like a house of cards when the insurance has to be paid.
Insurance is a great product to sell if you can just get the payments and then not pay when you are supposed to, and even better if you are getting people to buy crap investments because they're 'insured'. Now, the government, the regulatory agencies, could easily see this going on - the question is, was the president setting policies to not allow these problems or was he letting the Wall Street firms tell him to leave them alone?
The net effect seems to be yet another Republican cycle of profiteering and redistribution of wealth to the top with a big price tag for the nation as the mess is cleaned up.
That big housing bubble seems to have served mainly to enrich the top as America borrowed against the bubble, and now owes the money but has a less valuable home.
We really don't need the parroting of the right-wing pundits. Can you back up any significant benefit from that?
Sure, *if* you can prove the democrats' policies were the cause. You can't, because they only stopped some of the bleeding and got some things fixed (like the minimum wage).
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