*******Official Super Tuesday Thread********

[techs]

I just read an interesting article by Michael Saul in the New York Sunday News. Unfortuneately they don't put it online for a day or so. But here is the gist:

Best case scenario for Hillary gives her 1100 delegates on Super Tuesday. Worst case about 900.
What is important to remember is that there are 800 super delegates who consist of Democratic party bigwigs, local elected officials, etc. Saul calls them a wholly owned subsidiary of Clinton, Inc. Clinton should get 75 percent of these super delegates.
So even if Hillary gets the worst case on Super Tuesdsay, 900 delegates, if you add the 600 super delegates she will have 1500 of the about 2025 delegates needed for nomination, plus the ones she already has.
If Hillary does about the middle of the expectation, she will have about 1600. Plus the delegates she already has.
And there will still be about 50 percent of the country left to vote.
So as long as Hillary is the perceived winner on Super Tuesday, which would mean an absolute majority of votes cast, plus the largest states (excluding Illinios which Obama is sure to win) then the super delegates will still be in Hils corner.
The most recent polls have Hillary ahead in New York by 26 percent, California by 12 percent and New Jersey by 17 percent.
Which is why Super Tuesday is make or break for Obama. If he only wins the states he is currently leading in the polls he will only win Illinois, his home state, and Georgia. Especially since after Super Tuesday you will see the delegate count number displayed every day, and these will then include the super delegates.

 

[Pabster]

Super Tuesday is really make or break for Hillary. Her back is up against the wall...again. We've got 8 days now to hear "OBAMA WINS BIG!" and read article after article about it. She's in trouble.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Pabster
Super Tuesday is really make or break for every candidate.

fixed.

hopefully we'll know who the nominations are on Feb. 6th.

 

[chowderhead]

Clinton leads by an about 20% in
Florida

Then on SuperTuesday:

Clinton is up by 11% in California
Clinton is up by 28% in New York.
Clinton is up by 17% and Obama is in third place in Oklahoma
Clinton is up by by 14% in Connecticut
Clinton is up by 12% in New Jersey
Clinton is up by 37% in Massachusetts
Clinton is up by 24 points in Arizona.
Clinton is up by 15 points in Alabama
Clinton is up by 19%in Missouri
Clinton is up by 14% in Tennessee

Obama leads by 6% in Georgia
Obama leads by 2% in Colorado
Obama leads by 29% in Illinois

I will update this post with more polls as they become available. I expect the race to tighten but with early voting going on in many states, Clinton being out in the lead bodes well for her to "bank" some votes via early/absentee.

 

[shiner]

I wish your keyboard would break.

 

[techs]

Even though Florida and Michigan have no delegates the huge Hilary wins in both states are absolute indications of a huge win for Hilary on Super Tuesday.