- Jun 3, 2002
- 10,518
- 271
- 136
9-28 polls:
Some interesting developments today, specifically in North Carolina. McCain has had a very solid lead here up until the last 2 weeks (basically, since the economic meltdown). RCP now has Obama up 0.3 in NC. Granted, FTE still has McCain projected to win NC by 1.1, and currently has him leading by a very comfortable 4.9 over Obama.
- With the developments in NC, RCP has North Carolina going to Obama, giving him 301 electoral votes in their scenario. FTE has increased their prediction for Obama's electoral votes to 325.5. 270 is needed to win.
- Also, a new Gallup poll today has Obama up 8 points, 50 to 42. That pushes the RCP national average for Obama to +4.8, up more than half a point since the debate.
- Obama also extends his lead in Pennsylvania to +4.4 per RCP.
9-27 polls:
Noteworthy changes today:
- Presidential debate: Early polls give Barack Obama slender victory
- Obama won presidential debate. CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey, conducted shortly after the debate ended, showed 51 percent thought Obama, a U.S. senator from Illinois, did the best job, while 38 percent said Republican opponent Sen. John McCain of Arizona won.
- CBS Insta Poll shows Barack Obama won 39% to John McCain's 25% with 36% saying the debate was a draw. Insider Advantage reports of those polled Obama won 42% to McCain's 41% with Undecided 17%.
- FTE projects Obama to win Florida by 0.8, despite McCain currently leading by 2.5. RCP has McCain ahead in Florida by 1.6.
- FTE projects Obama to win Ohio by 0.6, despite McCain currently leading by 1.9. RCP has McCain ahead in Ohio by 1.2.
- FTE readjusted it's electoral map, with Obama projected to garner 317.8 electoral votes, up from 310 about 24 hours ago. 270 is the magic number this year.
9-26 polls:
- RealClearPolitics.com national average: Obama at +4.2
- FiveThirtyEight.com national average: Obama at +3.9.
- RCP has Obama leading by 1.8 in Virginia now.
- FTE has Obama leading by 0.2 in Virginia (Virginia is a real game changer being that it's 13 electoral votes, and were easy easy victories for Bush in 00 and 04).
- RCP has Obama at 286 electoral votes with no toss-up states and FTE has Obama at 310 electoral votes.
-Both RCP and FTE have McCain up between 1-2 points in Ohio and Florida (this is much narrower than 2004, with Ohio being particularly troubling for McCain).
My prediction; Obama continues to lead Virginia through November 4th, making it a comfortable victory. My "wild" prediction; he also snatches Ohio from McCain, winning 306-232.
Some interesting developments today, specifically in North Carolina. McCain has had a very solid lead here up until the last 2 weeks (basically, since the economic meltdown). RCP now has Obama up 0.3 in NC. Granted, FTE still has McCain projected to win NC by 1.1, and currently has him leading by a very comfortable 4.9 over Obama.
- With the developments in NC, RCP has North Carolina going to Obama, giving him 301 electoral votes in their scenario. FTE has increased their prediction for Obama's electoral votes to 325.5. 270 is needed to win.
- Also, a new Gallup poll today has Obama up 8 points, 50 to 42. That pushes the RCP national average for Obama to +4.8, up more than half a point since the debate.
- Obama also extends his lead in Pennsylvania to +4.4 per RCP.
9-27 polls:
Noteworthy changes today:
- Presidential debate: Early polls give Barack Obama slender victory
- Obama won presidential debate. CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey, conducted shortly after the debate ended, showed 51 percent thought Obama, a U.S. senator from Illinois, did the best job, while 38 percent said Republican opponent Sen. John McCain of Arizona won.
- CBS Insta Poll shows Barack Obama won 39% to John McCain's 25% with 36% saying the debate was a draw. Insider Advantage reports of those polled Obama won 42% to McCain's 41% with Undecided 17%.
- FTE projects Obama to win Florida by 0.8, despite McCain currently leading by 2.5. RCP has McCain ahead in Florida by 1.6.
- FTE projects Obama to win Ohio by 0.6, despite McCain currently leading by 1.9. RCP has McCain ahead in Ohio by 1.2.
- FTE readjusted it's electoral map, with Obama projected to garner 317.8 electoral votes, up from 310 about 24 hours ago. 270 is the magic number this year.
9-26 polls:
- RealClearPolitics.com national average: Obama at +4.2
- FiveThirtyEight.com national average: Obama at +3.9.
- RCP has Obama leading by 1.8 in Virginia now.
- FTE has Obama leading by 0.2 in Virginia (Virginia is a real game changer being that it's 13 electoral votes, and were easy easy victories for Bush in 00 and 04).
- RCP has Obama at 286 electoral votes with no toss-up states and FTE has Obama at 310 electoral votes.
-Both RCP and FTE have McCain up between 1-2 points in Ohio and Florida (this is much narrower than 2004, with Ohio being particularly troubling for McCain).
My prediction; Obama continues to lead Virginia through November 4th, making it a comfortable victory. My "wild" prediction; he also snatches Ohio from McCain, winning 306-232.