Official Presidential Polls-Stats-Predictions Thread

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Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
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9-28 polls:

Some interesting developments today, specifically in North Carolina. McCain has had a very solid lead here up until the last 2 weeks (basically, since the economic meltdown). RCP now has Obama up 0.3 in NC. Granted, FTE still has McCain projected to win NC by 1.1, and currently has him leading by a very comfortable 4.9 over Obama.

- With the developments in NC, RCP has North Carolina going to Obama, giving him 301 electoral votes in their scenario. FTE has increased their prediction for Obama's electoral votes to 325.5. 270 is needed to win.

- Also, a new Gallup poll today has Obama up 8 points, 50 to 42. That pushes the RCP national average for Obama to +4.8, up more than half a point since the debate.

- Obama also extends his lead in Pennsylvania to +4.4 per RCP.

9-27 polls:

Noteworthy changes today:

- Presidential debate: Early polls give Barack Obama slender victory

- Obama won presidential debate. CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey, conducted shortly after the debate ended, showed 51 percent thought Obama, a U.S. senator from Illinois, did the best job, while 38 percent said Republican opponent Sen. John McCain of Arizona won.

- CBS Insta Poll shows Barack Obama won 39% to John McCain's 25% with 36% saying the debate was a draw. Insider Advantage reports of those polled Obama won 42% to McCain's 41% with Undecided 17%.

- FTE projects Obama to win Florida by 0.8, despite McCain currently leading by 2.5. RCP has McCain ahead in Florida by 1.6.

- FTE projects Obama to win Ohio by 0.6, despite McCain currently leading by 1.9. RCP has McCain ahead in Ohio by 1.2.

- FTE readjusted it's electoral map, with Obama projected to garner 317.8 electoral votes, up from 310 about 24 hours ago. 270 is the magic number this year.

9-26 polls:

- RealClearPolitics.com national average: Obama at +4.2

- FiveThirtyEight.com national average: Obama at +3.9.

- RCP has Obama leading by 1.8 in Virginia now.

- FTE has Obama leading by 0.2 in Virginia (Virginia is a real game changer being that it's 13 electoral votes, and were easy easy victories for Bush in 00 and 04).

- RCP has Obama at 286 electoral votes with no toss-up states and FTE has Obama at 310 electoral votes.

-Both RCP and FTE have McCain up between 1-2 points in Ohio and Florida (this is much narrower than 2004, with Ohio being particularly troubling for McCain).

My prediction; Obama continues to lead Virginia through November 4th, making it a comfortable victory. My "wild" prediction; he also snatches Ohio from McCain, winning 306-232.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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Where's Dave? I want to hear about how the polls are all wrong and he's right.
 
TraumaRN

TraumaRN

Diamond Member
Jun 5, 2005
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Funny I was about to post the change from 538 and RCP today. Saw that change with Virginia. Well if Ohio, and Florida are close come election day Obama has a good chance of winning them and if he wins them, well he'll win the election no problem.

It will be interesting to see how things continue to play out.

We will definitely see if the VP debates means anything.
 
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Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
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^ The VP debates could get real ugly, I'm anxious to see how Palin reacts to that stage. She rejected an invitation to speak on the after-debate pundit programs last night.
 
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mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
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Intrade is supposedly easily manipulated with not too much money, and I even read that you have to actually mail your bets in, but this map is an interesting way to see which states are really in play and who has home field advantage:

peak of Palin bounce: http://electoralmap.net/index.php?date=9.16

now: http://electoralmap.net/index.php?date=9.27

I think Obama is likely to get 290 something votes (I don't think McLame is going to be able to defend all of the battleground states he has to defend, in particular both Ohio and Virginia at the same time, in additon to Iowa, New Mexico, and hopefully Colorado), and if the electorate breaks like current economic / stock market turmoil might be starting to suggest, I am thinking 325 - 350 is quite possible (Missouri and Indiana seems to come in play along with North Carolina, and Florida is in play at even lower levels). Ohio has always seemed like a true toss up, and Virginia appears the same now (reading MSNBC First Read, it seems someone from the Obama campaign is somewhere in Virginia every day - and remember, Chuck Todd said quality of publicly available polls is poor, so just watch which states candidates keep returning to to figure where the real battlegrounds are[/i]). Nevada never seems to turn light blue, it is always red or grey at even McLame's worst points. And Michigan and Pennsylvania only turn light blue, never red or even neutral gray, even at the height of the media induced Palin mania, and McLame really needs one of those states to even make this a horse race.

Again, ignore the overall snapshot at any given time, just watch which states turn from red to neutral to even blue, or vice versa, depending upon which campaign is sucking up all the air in the room at any given time.

 
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mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
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If advertising spending offers the roadmap to electoral strategy, then the travel schedule is the GPS system of the campaign.

?That is the window into their private polling,? said Larry Sabato, an analyst with the University of Virginia. ?It really is. Personal time is as ? or more ? valuable than ad time. We are at the point where voters want to know that the candidate cares.?
Click to expand...
Link
 
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Stoneburner

Diamond Member
May 29, 2003
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Could somebody make this an official poll thread :(?

I just saw an ARG poll showing Obama plus 1 in Florida and down 3 in Colorado. Arg is one shitty pollster...
 
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ohnoes

Senior member
Oct 11, 2007
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I don't know how much independent's liked Mccain's doochy attitude last night. Good thing is, he has 2 more debates to switch it up.
 
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Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
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Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Could somebody make this an official poll thread :(?

I just saw an ARG poll showing Obama plus 1 in Florida and down 3 in Colorado. Arg is one shitty pollster...
Click to expand...

I'll put official in the title. :laugh:
 
TraumaRN

TraumaRN

Diamond Member
Jun 5, 2005
6,893
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Not to jump the gun, but Obama, at this point in time, should win Colorado, and New Mexico. He should also win Michigan.

I think at this point McCain has much more ground to make up than Obama. He's fighting for states Bush had no problem winning, at some point thats going to drain resources away from other battleground states and I still firmly believe as 'close' race will goto Obama if the turnout is strong.

Besides the debates, I'm wondering what possible October surprise there might be, if any.
 
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Stoneburner

Diamond Member
May 29, 2003
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538's prediction mechanism is curious and we'll see how well it works. I like their individual state breakdown better, in terms of finding the "tipping point" states. NC may be leaning Mccain slightly still but Nate's point is this: If obama is going to win NC he'll probably have won VA so he won't need NC.

I don't care about blowouts or landslides, I just want a win, close or not. And I'm looking at COlorado, NM, and IA. Everything else is pure icing.
 
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uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,632
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If he pulls MN, WI, IW, CO, PA and NM, it's over and he's at 273. Like stone said, everything else is just icing. The good news is, he will be playing offense in NC and VA, forcing McCain to hold on to them and tying up resources.
 
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