*OFFICIAL* P&N Investing Thread

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: glenn1
I'm a value investor, four years ago you couldn't give away some of the things I liked (oils like XOM, defense like CW, cyclicals like MMM, lawsuit bait like MO). So for the last year or so I've happily rotating my picks out of some of my medium-term winners and been picking up shares in lagging sectors. Right now that means distressed properties in utilities (CPN) and telecom (LVLT), and those struggling in basic materials (DD) and the internet (DCLK). At this point I'm waiting for MRK to come down some more.

I've looked up some of your potential holdings, all went though a fairly significant drop.
Is that how you pick them?

Look at the big droppers and research the reason why and invest if you think it will rebound?

You like playing all single stocks or do you own funds at all?
Also you seem to be all over the place in terms of sectors, do you pay attention to certain ones or only when one stock imparticular drops significantly?

Thanks for the input :thumbsup:

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Stunt

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Stunt
A lot of people here are going to hate me for saying this...but i hope that oil prices shoot through the roof. Not these piddly 10-15% increases.
Two benifits to higher oil prices:

1) Oil is out primary source of carbon and can be used for polymers, alloys, ceramics, lubricants, rubbers, --> useful things rather than just burning the stuff for energy.
2) The US government will finally be forced to follow the rest of the world and get off their a$$es with the support of the american people (oil up = gas up) to convert energy sources to non-oil based. Higher oil price is the only way to influence change. All other nations are using hydro, nuclear, etc.

The only reason smaller cars were developed was due to the oil crisis...Oil prices going up will be tight in the short term...but will be better for the long term...i dare anyone to prove this wrong.

Well we may hit $90-$100 by April, could be 120 by June. High enough???

I think that may be a bit overboard. What are your sources?
But yeah...higher the better.

The Oil thread. Posts showing how OPEC cannot keep up with China's draw.

 

[glenn1]

I've looked up some of your potential holdings, all went though a fairly significant drop.
Is that how you pick them?

Look at the big droppers and research the reason why and invest if you think it will rebound?

That's sort of the Cliff's Notes version of value investing, yes. The classic example of value investing which always gets cited would have been buying Johnson & Johnson during the Tylenol tampering scares about 20 years ago. The idea is to buy a basically good business which is out of favor for some reason and you can thus buy cheaply.

You like playing all single stocks or do you own funds at all?

Own some funds also, a couple of index funds, a couple of domestic managed funds, and a foreign equities fund.

Also you seem to be all over the place in terms of sectors, do you pay attention to certain ones or only when one stock imparticular drops significantly?

Depends. You can do it from either "top down" (selecting a sector that's been beat up, and then choosing a candidate from that group) or "bottom up" (selecting a stock that's been beat down for some reason and comparing it to its industry sector). CPN would be an example where I used top-down methods - utilities sector got beat down bad during the Enron days, CPN has been building capacity with the newer gas turbine style generators and will be well-positioned when demand turns up. DCLK is a method where I used bottom-up, I noticed that the company had a sound and profitable business, about $3/share in cash on the balance sheet, and a relatively straightforward business model with few competitors in its niche, while its competitor ValueClick (VCLK) is the main competitor and is (for now) better run, there's also less upside in it to surprise.

Hope this helps. If you read this, it will be more help than anyone here could ever hope to offer...

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Stunt

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Stunt
A lot of people here are going to hate me for saying this...but i hope that oil prices shoot through the roof. Not these piddly 10-15% increases.
Two benifits to higher oil prices:

1) Oil is out primary source of carbon and can be used for polymers, alloys, ceramics, lubricants, rubbers, --> useful things rather than just burning the stuff for energy.
2) The US government will finally be forced to follow the rest of the world and get off their a$$es with the support of the american people (oil up = gas up) to convert energy sources to non-oil based. Higher oil price is the only way to influence change. All other nations are using hydro, nuclear, etc.

The only reason smaller cars were developed was due to the oil crisis...Oil prices going up will be tight in the short term...but will be better for the long term...i dare anyone to prove this wrong.

Well we may hit $90-$100 by April, could be 120 by June. High enough???

I think that may be a bit overboard. What are your sources?
But yeah...higher the better.

The Oil thread. Posts showing how OPEC cannot keep up with China's draw.

Good to hear.
Maybe we can start to realize that we cannot continue to live in the future using the ways of the past. If we hope to progress, we cannot use oil as a crutch. Ah well it will all work out sooner or later 🙂

glenn1: Thanks for the input. Sounds like a fairly effective investment strategy. Not long term...not day trading...but involves research, which i like.

What is the average term of your holdings?...and maybe average share price?

 

[miketheidiot]

you never know when china will want to run our economy into the ground by depeging the yuan, so that mihgt be a good hedge.

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
you never know when china will want to run our economy into the ground by depeging the yuan, so that mihgt be a good hedge.

Why would the US economy be run into the ground by depeging?

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Stunt

Originally posted by: Riprorin
I invested in toliet paper. Unfortunately, I got wiped out.

For the amount of $hit you post on P&N, i would have thought that was a good investment.

hehe...sorry, couldn't resist. :thumbsup:

:laugh:

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Stunt

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
you never know when china will want to run our economy into the ground by depeging the yuan, so that mihgt be a good hedge.

Why would the US economy be run into the ground by depeging?

Because they will no longer be willing to buy our debt like hell to keep the dollar proped up. It will fall like a ton of bricks! :Q

 

[glenn1]

What is the average term of your holdings?...and maybe average share price?

Most of the ones I've already cited I've held for a year or less. As I stated, I rolled out of a lot of my older positions late last year or during this year. Of my limited horizon holdings, my basis in CPN is $2.69, DD is $44.25, DCLK is $5.19, FCX is $36.86, GW is $4.97 (my most recent pickup), LVLT is $3.36, and NT is $7.92 (ouch). Of my "permanent" holdings TWP is $22, FNF is $25, HDWR is $16, and MIK is $24.05.

Biggest mistake I've ever made? Easy. Buying EXDS and WCOM and riding those SOB's all the way to the bottom. Or selling UNH after getting a double back in 2001. I've left 50 points on the table since then 🙁

 

[imported_Condor]

Originally posted by: Infohawk
Tip #1, don't listen to anybody on P&N for investing tips. 😛

This may be the first time I have ever agreed with anything Infohawk has said!

 

[Kibbo]

Stunt, I'd reccommend some US Blue Chip or Value stocks. With our high dollar, it's a bargain. I'm assuming that this is for long-term investing.

Even if there is a crash, if you have time to wait it out, you'll be fine.

Or, you could just start saving for a down payment on a house.

 

[sandorski]

Buy Low, Sell High!! 😉

 

[Riprorin]

I'm taking a flier on a few individual stocks with a small portion of my portfolio (~4%).

ISR
STHK
SYBD
GTEL

I'm up on ISR, GTEL and STHK, and down on SYBD.

My IRAs and kid's educational accounts are in Hussman Strategic Growth.

The rest (401K and savings) is in cash/CDs/fixed income accounts.

I believe that we are in a secular bear market.

My advice is to not be too aggressive and to stay mostly in cash or cash equivalents.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Stunt

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Stunt

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Stunt
A lot of people here are going to hate me for saying this...but i hope that oil prices shoot through the roof. Not these piddly 10-15% increases.
Two benifits to higher oil prices:

1) Oil is out primary source of carbon and can be used for polymers, alloys, ceramics, lubricants, rubbers, --> useful things rather than just burning the stuff for energy.
2) The US government will finally be forced to follow the rest of the world and get off their a$$es with the support of the american people (oil up = gas up) to convert energy sources to non-oil based. Higher oil price is the only way to influence change. All other nations are using hydro, nuclear, etc.

The only reason smaller cars were developed was due to the oil crisis...Oil prices going up will be tight in the short term...but will be better for the long term...i dare anyone to prove this wrong.

Well we may hit $90-$100 by April, could be 120 by June. High enough???

I think that may be a bit overboard. What are your sources?
But yeah...higher the better.

The Oil thread. Posts showing how OPEC cannot keep up with China's draw.

Good to hear.
Maybe we can start to realize that we cannot continue to live in the future using the ways of the past. If we hope to progress, we cannot use oil as a crutch. Ah well it will all work out sooner or later 🙂

glenn1: Thanks for the input. Sounds like a fairly effective investment strategy. Not long term...not day trading...but involves research, which i like.

What is the average term of your holdings?...and maybe average share price?

China is building massive Oil Tanks so that they will not be depenedent on a "Just in Time" like system that the U.S. runs.

11-23-2004 China looks to build huge oil supply

SHANGHAI, China -- About a three-hour drive south of Shanghai, along the East China Sea, workers are building 52 gigantic tanks, each capable of holding more than 25 million gallons of oil -- enough to supply every driver in China with gasoline for a month.

The storage tanks will help accommodate China's thirst for oil as it looks to fuel its booming economy. And it has plans to stockpile much, much more.

China, the world's second-largest consumer of oil after the United States, has plenty of cash to secure sources of petroleum and natural gas.

But as aggressively as any nation, it is also cutting deals and forging alliances to get the energy it needs.

In South America and Africa, the Chinese government is helping build roads and ports in exchange for oil supply contracts.

Beijing pledged to support oil-rich Russia in its bid to join the World Trade Organization as the two countries agreed that Russia would boost its exports of crude by rail to China.

One of China's biggest and latest energy ventures involves Iran, which the United States has sought to isolate for its alleged development of a covert nuclear arms program.

=======================================================

The REAL reason why the U.S. has to invade and take over Oil Rich Countries in the Middle East because we won't be able to get Oil from other areas like South America, Africa and Russia because China is getting it all. It is aslo the REAL reason Oil has reached $50 barrel and as soon as all these areas of Oil is all diverted to China will double and then some.

We will have no choice but to invade Saudi Arabia and Iran for the Oil.