Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

[jpiniero]

Come on surprise rate hike!

Ha. The odds favor a single cut, so even doing nothing would be a surprise.

 

[IronWing]

An unnecessary rate cut at this time would be perceived as capitulation to the fascists, one more institution under the heel.

 

[AdamK47]

Quarter point rate cut as expected.

Expecting two more cuts this year. Market should like that.

 

[IronWing]

What was that blip about?

 

[AdamK47]

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250917.pdf

I wonder which one of them thinks we'll be under 3% this year.

I'm guessing the new guy.

 

[jpiniero]

I'm guessing the new guy.

The new guy wanted a half point cut, heh.

I agree they shouldn't be cutting. But it is what it is. Just going to have to hope it doesn't spike inflation.

 

[AdamK47]

The widening of the wealth gap.

 

[dullard]

It seems like some were betting on a larger cut. All treasury yields that I looked at went UP slight today. There was a blip down followed by a spike up--finishing higher than yesterday's close. Even 30-year mortgage average rate went up.

 

[jpiniero]

Still want to "invest" in this market? Trump just forced nVidia to blow 5 billion.

Wall Street seems to like it though. I guess if the numbers go up, it doesn't matter to people as long as they go up? Until they don't.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Still want to "invest" in this market? Trump just forced nVidia to blow 5 billion.

Wall Street seems to like it though. I guess if the numbers go up, it doesn't matter to people as long as they go up? Until they don't.

The headlines were Nvidia investing in Intel with the latter's stock skyrocketing 25%!

I love it! Nvidia desktop CPU here we come!

Short AMD. 😉

 

[AdamK47]

Making multiple metallic beige 2002 Toyota Siennas today.

 

[dullard]

Making multiple metallic beige 2002 Toyota Siennas today.

Great! Time to step it up a notch to ecru? Or even gasp, fawn?

 

[AdamK47]

Great! Time to step it up a notch to ecru? Or even gasp, fawn?

Looking for ones with old Cheerios still mashed between the seat cushions. It's the minivan equivalent to patina.

 

[Indus]

Making multiple metallic beige 2002 Toyota Siennas today.

Yeah It seems I was stupid and you were correct.

I thought this stock market would dive on economic reports but just fudge the numbers and it keeps on going up. No better salesman than Trump.

But at least I have an excuse.. I didn't have money available in April.. I do now. Which overvalued stuff do I buy high and sell low? /sarcasm

Trying to find gems in this market is getting harder and harder but I am coming around on the thought that S&P will just go down to 3000 like 2008. Maybe Felix is right.. they'll just print money, things will have even more inflation and market will keep melting up.

 

[Indus]

BTW I'm curious about something and you can answer.. I won't be making fun of you since I'm genuinely curious and wanting to learn.

What's the most money you have in 1 stock/ holding??

And you don't have to tell me the name of it..

Just trying to get a feel of if you really believe in something and want to double/ triple/ quadruple/ quintuple down on something.. what's the max amount to put in it?

 

[dullard]

BTW I'm curious about something and you can answer.. I won't be making fun of you since I'm genuinely curious and wanting to learn.

What's the most money you have in 1 stock/ holding??

And you don't have to tell me the name of it..

Just trying to get a feel of if you really believe in something and want to double/ triple/ quadruple/ quintuple down on something.. what's the max amount to put in it?

I personally believe strongly in diversification. Will I put down $100 today and be a billionaire tomorrow? Certainly not. But, I'll be virtually guaranteed to have more money than I need for the rest of my life. And I'm fine with that compromise.

I diversify in two ways:

1) I buy funds instead of individual stocks. If company X and company Y do basically the same thing, and I believe in that market, how am I going to know that it is company Y that goes to the moon and company X fails. Or vise versa. I can't know. So, I buy funds that let me own X, Y, and the unknown-to-me company Z.

2) I buy different funds in different markets. That way, if I royalty screw up one decision, it really only has a small impact on my overall net worth.

My current biggest fund category is S&P tracking funds. They are what I believe strongly will rise over the course of time. S&P tracking funds are currently 24.7% of my total net worth.

I personally think that is too many eggs in one basket, and I'd like to drop that to 20% of my net worth. I'd like to exchange that for value funds (currently only 10.3% of my net worth). My current problem is that much of that is in a taxable account and value funds in a taxable account is a big no-no. Paying tax on all the dividends year after year just to hold onto some stocks is not what I'm looking for. So, I've been stuck watching the S&P keep reaching record highs.

 

[Indus]

I personally believe strongly in diversification. Will I put down $100 today and be a billionaire tomorrow? Certainly not. But, I'll be virtually guaranteed to have more money than I need for the rest of my life. And I'm fine with that compromise.

I diversify in two ways:

1) I buy funds instead of individual stocks. If company X and company Y do basically the same thing, and I believe in that market, how am I going to know that it is company Y that goes to the moon and company X fails. Or vise versa. I can't know. So, I buy funds that let me own X, Y, and the unknown-to-me company Z.

2) I buy different funds in different markets. That way, if I royalty screw up one decision, it really only has a small impact on my overall net worth.

My current biggest fund category is S&P tracking funds. They are what I believe strongly will rise over the course of time. S&P tracking funds are currently 24.7% of my total net worth.

I personally think that is too many eggs in one basket, and I'd like to drop that to 20% of my net worth. I'd like to exchange that for value funds (currently only 10.3% of my net worth). My current problem is that much of that is in a taxable account and value funds in a taxable account is a big no-no. Paying tax on all the dividends year after year just to hold onto some stocks is not what I'm looking for. So, I've been stuck watching the S&P keep reaching record highs.

Thank you for your answer.

Don't ETF's make it easier than funds on paying tax on dividends/ reallocation??

I mean if you have VOO instead of VFIAX??

 

[dullard]

Thank you for your answer.

Don't ETF's make it easier than funds on paying tax on dividends/ reallocation??

I mean if you have VOO instead of VFIAX??

As far as I know, dividends are taxed the same between ETFs and Mutual funds. It is capital gains that are taxed differently. It is ETNs (Exchange Traded Notes) that have no dividends to tax.

It is basically invest in VTV (value stocks) vs VOO (S&P500 stocks). VTV currently pays about 57% more dividends and thus I'd pay 57% more tax throughout the year (assuming all else was equal).

 

[Charmonium]

I'm beginning to feel quite a bit less sanguine about the market over the next few quarters.

Sure, we'll get a couple more piss ant cuts this year but there's growing uncertainty and trepidation - tariffs, govt incompetence that's at least an order of magnitude greater than "normal." It won't be hard to overwhelm whatever good the cuts bring.

If we're lucky, SCrOTUS will take up the tariff issue in November and fast track it to shit pile. I think there's a decent chance of that scenario, just don't bet on it.

 

[jpiniero]

If we're lucky, SCrOTUS will take up the tariff issue in November and fast track it to shit pile. I think there's a decent chance of that scenario, just don't bet on it.

In theory Congress could vote on the tariffs and approve them.

lol

 

[FelixDeCat]

In theory Congress could vote on the tariffs and approve them.

lol

But they won't because their lobbyist masters will not let them.

 

[Charmonium]

In theory Congress could vote on the tariffs and approve them.

lol

I don't mean any of this personally, should some of you have soft spot in your heart for the Gangrenous Old Party. Hate the sin, not the sinner as some preachers of the old timey religion might say. You might not shoot heroin, but would I judge you for boinking a fit, cute junkie - you know, assuming that she still had most of her teeth and the tooth to tattoo ratio was acceptable. Of course not. My knee doesn't jerk every time you hit it (should probably look into that).

But this tariff shit stinks almost as bad as the Epstein shit and most GOP'ers can't even deny it with a straight face any more.

 

[IronWing]

Vanguard is suggesting clients put more into bonds and less into stocks. I can see moving out of stocks as the price to earnings ratios are whack. Given that bond funds have sucked so hard for so long, I’m having trouble with the idea of putting any money into bonds.

 

[Indus]

Vanguard is suggesting clients put more into bonds and less into stocks. I can see moving out of stocks as the price to earnings ratios are whack. Given that bond funds have sucked so hard for so long, I’m having trouble with the idea of putting any money into bonds.

Thought I mentioned that a while ago but I was called a crazy person and told to just trust index funds as they're diversified.

However with the S&P 500 now having MSTR, COIN and who knows what else in it with these crazy valuations and p/e ratios.. it reminds me of: