Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

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dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,625
530
136
Bought Offerpad at 2.22, hit 2.80, didn't sell. Hoping for 3 or more.
NIce. Almost up a dollar.

I'm within about $300 of breaking even on OPEN but I'm scared to sell it. That crazy billionaire keeps saying it could skyrocket if everything breaks right.

It was dead like CLOV but they're not the same. CLOV has actually made huge progress why their business.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,864
2,637
126
NIce. Almost up a dollar.

I'm within about $300 of breaking even on OPEN but I'm scared to sell it. That crazy billionaire keeps saying it could skyrocket if everything breaks right.

It was dead like CLOV but they're not the same. CLOV has actually made huge progress why their business.
8 near term would not surprise me, but its your call, a pullback to 5 even and hold until the rate cut is also likely
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,727
3,574
136
I almost wish I bought Roblox at 66.00. There are a lot of videos on YT talking about their legal situation but one by Legal Eagle suggesting they may survive it all relatively unscathed but they do question their ethical behavior having millions of unpaid contributors building the brand and how 10.00 in Roblux is worth 2.32 or less ...before they nickle and dime you more.
I'm still confused as to how RBLX has an 88-billion-dollar market cap. Watched some videos of it in light of all the controversies going on. Still cannot comprehend why anyone would want to play this slop. It's what I imagine AI would come up with for a game. It's gaming slop. The generation that plays this garbage is the same that thinks Skibidi Toilet is pinnacle video entertainment.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,864
2,637
126
I'm still confused as to how RBLX has an 88-billion-dollar market cap. Watched some videos of it in light of all the controversies going on. Still cannot comprehend why anyone would want to play this slop. It's what I imagine AI would come up with for a game. It's gaming slop. The generation that plays this garbage is the same that thinks Skibidi Toilet is pinnacle video entertainment.
Find me millions of people worldwide working for you for free, buying your in game cash and then nickle and dime them while they loiter for hours on your site generating revenue which they see as "fun" and I will show you ab $80b company.

Currently 126, I think 133. If they can resolve the platform issues and settle the suits favorably or cheaply and continue to grow then why not 180?

This is worth a watch..

 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
25,887
15,346
136
You spend a considerable amount of time in a well-respected section of this forum. A section known for its civility and deep insights.

Will you honor us with your thoughtful analysis on this tanking of AI? We rarely get such a unique opportunity from the brain trust on these forums.
Almost forgotten salt mines pops up radar again, what is this sorcery? I dont recall butting heads with you, perhaps it was not a memorable experience? :).


Anyway, here goes. It seems to me that we are saturating the limits of the LLM architecture, new models are incremental improvements, no where near the exponential growth we saw a couple of years ago, AGI seems to red shift not blue.

Agentic workflows are great. When they get it right. They dont. And with the ceiling issue described above, it doesnt seem like everyone is going out of work anytime soon.

So while AI is still very much in business, the exponential potential super future that is currently priced in ... I think that bubble is going to burst.

Still even if the models hit a hard ceiling *right now* there is still so much untapped potential in those here right now that it isnt going away.

Personally I do agentic coding with cursor, it's great, I am having a daily talk withmyself to not buy a GB10 based system to tinker with at home. I want this thing to continue into the sky ... I just dont see it happening right now.

They may break out a new architecture tomorrow or a new learning paradigm and we are off to the races again. Maybe.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,864
2,637
126
NIce. Almost up a dollar.

I'm within about $300 of breaking even on OPEN but I'm scared to sell it. That crazy billionaire keeps saying it could skyrocket if everything breaks right.

It was dead like CLOV but they're not the same. CLOV has actually made huge progress why their business.
Offer Pad now 3.6, I am up 55% today alone, locked in profits on all but a tiny token amount

Both may see a positive material impact from rate cuts.

Edit... sold all, up way too much..

1000007037.jpg
 
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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,727
3,574
136
Almost forgotten salt mines pops up radar again, what is this sorcery? I dont recall butting heads with you, perhaps it was not a memorable experience? :).


Anyway, here goes. It seems to me that we are saturating the limits of the LLM architecture, new models are incremental improvements, no where near the exponential growth we saw a couple of years ago, AGI seems to red shift not blue.

Agentic workflows are great. When they get it right. They dont. And with the ceiling issue described above, it doesnt seem like everyone is going out of work anytime soon.

So while AI is still very much in business, the exponential potential super future that is currently priced in ... I think that bubble is going to burst.

Still even if the models hit a hard ceiling *right now* there is still so much untapped potential in those here right now that it isnt going away.

Personally I do agentic coding with cursor, it's great, I am having a daily talk withmyself to not buy a GB10 based system to tinker with at home. I want this thing to continue into the sky ... I just dont see it happening right now.

They may break out a new architecture tomorrow or a new learning paradigm and we are off to the races again. Maybe.
I rag on anyone that sneaks their way through the security doors and gets lost in other sub forums far away from their ward.

The new shine has been lost on AI. What should have been obvious realizations are only now starting to set in on the viability of many endeavors.

A pullback is good and needed. The delusional nature of everyone getting in on the gold rush is unsustainable. The AI just because of AI needs to stop. It will certainly clean up my LinkedIn feed.

Viable business plans around it will continue to strengthen while the me-too AIs will fade away.
 
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IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,463
33,077
136
Almost forgotten salt mines pops up radar again, what is this sorcery? I dont recall butting heads with you, perhaps it was not a memorable experience? :).


Anyway, here goes. It seems to me that we are saturating the limits of the LLM architecture, new models are incremental improvements, no where near the exponential growth we saw a couple of years ago, AGI seems to red shift not blue.

Agentic workflows are great. When they get it right. They dont. And with the ceiling issue described above, it doesnt seem like everyone is going out of work anytime soon.

So while AI is still very much in business, the exponential potential super future that is currently priced in ... I think that bubble is going to burst.

Still even if the models hit a hard ceiling *right now* there is still so much untapped potential in those here right now that it isnt going away.

Personally I do agentic coding with cursor, it's great, I am having a daily talk withmyself to not buy a GB10 based system to tinker with at home. I want this thing to continue into the sky ... I just dont see it happening right now.

They may break out a new architecture tomorrow or a new learning paradigm and we are off to the races again. Maybe.
The capital and energy costs of AI are so far out of whack with what it delivers, it can’t be anything but another greater fool game. Imagine dumping the trillions sunk into AI in the past two years into actual intelligence (education) and see what happens. Instead, we gut school budgets and blow the money on market masturbation.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,864
2,637
126
Damn Felix.

You killed it on OPAD.
Wish every day could be like that. I can see it maybe hitting 10 next year but they already have an S1 filed to issue 1m shares, they could easily amend it considering the higher share price and offer several million more.

Dilution may help them long term but it may kill near term momentum so I sold.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,864
2,637
126
And one more thing (and I am not saying this will happen), assuming the memesters tried to run this to $1B, and if the company does not dilute much, that would be close to 30 per share. I have zero money on that outcome at this juncture.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
15,728
10,921
136
I'm wondering if now is a good time to completely exit the market.. especially equities.

After NVIDIA reports.. nothing big happening for months except the tariff impacts and stagflation!
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,864
2,637
126
I'm wondering if now is a good time to completely exit the market.. especially equities.

After NVIDIA reports.. nothing big happening for months except the tariff impacts and stagflation!
Not with rate cuts on the horizon. While I oppose rate cuts, stocks will likely go higher before and after.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,727
3,574
136
I'm wondering if now is a good time to completely exit the market.. especially equities.

After NVIDIA reports.. nothing big happening for months except the tariff impacts and stagflation!
This is a smart, educated, and overall wonderful decision devoid of any emotion that would hurt you in the future.

Sell everything that you have in the market.
 
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IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,463
33,077
136
This is a smart, educated, and overall wonderful decision void of any emotion that would hurt you in the future.

Sell everything that you have in the market.
With Trump attacking the independent Fed, it isn’t a terrible idea. Off-shore investments are looking better all the time.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,625
530
136
Something like that could potentially scare the shit out of me too if I knew what it was.


The creators of mongodb like to say the name is derived from the word humongous.

I don't buy it. This is where they really got the name from:
I just assumed that's where it was from lol.

OK, I'm way late to the party but I bought 100 OPAD at 4.87.

Also got back in to RKLB.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,864
2,637
126
That's the thing. Its easy to buy high and sell higher (chase momentum) when the market is rising.

But if the market has a temper tantrum, then I think a stock like MDB could retrace 280 or less until things settle down and go back up.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
15,728
10,921
136
That's the thing. Its easy to buy high and sell higher (chase momentum) when the market is rising.

But if the market has a temper tantrum, then I think a stock like MDB could retrace 280 or less until things settle down and go back up.

Yeah that's the trouble I'm facing..

Short term money market accounts is where I'm parking looking for opportunities. I missed out on a lot of growth but I like to minimize risk.

I am keeping my powder dry for now.. tempted by a few stocks but my timeframe is 5-15 years, not 30.

And buying index funds now before tariffs hits seems very risky.