Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

[dullard]

Tariffs aren't the main concern today. It's the weak jobs report. Particularly the down revision of previous months. The coupling of the downward revisions with the July numbers hurt the fed. No doubt we would have had a July cut if they had this information.

The fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place and a TACO.

1) You are correct, the jobs numbers are showing signs of weakness. The job market is still growing at least, but it could easily tip the wrong direction (June numbers were the worst in 4 years). So the fed should cut rates.

2) Inflation is still above their target and the tariffs are just now starting to show up in inflation data with PCE starting to tick higher the last couple of months (note: since most tariffs were delayed until now, most have not yet had a chance to make much impact, the October inflation report will show a much different picture). So the fed should raise rates.

3) The TACO is demanding rate cuts or he'll do something that is explicitly illegal to fire Powell. Or not. Or maybe he will. Or not. So the fed should cut rates to appease him, or not to maintain credibility, or maybe he is bluffing so the fed should do the opposite of what I just typed.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Joby collaboration with L3 Harris for possible defense applications.

 

[Indus]

Also, figma is quite the overbought stock. Who will get left holding the bag?

2 days ago afterhours I managed to sell AMZN at 237.6

As it turned out.. it was a good move.. stock down to 217 ish levels so I didn't get stuck holding the bag on that.

Then again I remember Broadcom.. it's now 300ish.. I merely sold it because of it breaking even. Ahhh well at least I didn't lose and have money available still if the opportunity presents itself.


Maybe I should have bought Meta.. up 12% in one day.. LOL

 

[FelixDeCat]

The fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place and a TACO.

1) You are correct, the jobs numbers are showing signs of weakness. The job market is still growing at least, but it could easily tip the wrong direction (June numbers were the worst in 4 years). So the fed should cut rates.

2) Inflation is still above their target and the tariffs are just now starting to show up in inflation data with PCE starting to tick higher the last couple of months (note: since most tariffs were delayed until now, most have not yet had a chance to make much impact, the October inflation report will show a much different picture). So the fed should raise rates.

3) The TACO is demanding rate cuts or he'll do something that is explicitly illegal to fire Powell. Or not. Or maybe he will. Or not. So the fed should cut rates to appease him, or not to maintain credibility, or maybe he is bluffing so the fed should do the opposite of what I just typed.

The fed should raise rates to curb inflation in stock prices.

Here is Powell after a surprise rate hike..

 

[dullard]

The fed should raise rates...

No matter how much I want to agree with that tactic, it is the world's economy we are speaking about. Plus, the fed doesn't care about the stock market beyond a slight interest in the wealth effect it might have on consumers.

Looks like the stock market might be breaking through a floor of support at S&P ~6225. If that goes, we might have quite a drop coming.

Edit: Support floor was too strong.

 

[Indus]

So what are these support floor or ceilings?

Just patterns of numbers?? I never understood that.

Either way I'd like to hold off on lower than 5900 till Aug 15 or so.. after that I'd welcome it.

 

[Indus]

You have to of been employed to be getting UI... which is why Gen-Z isn't showing up.

The Fed kept the rates steady although there was two who voted against it (wanting a rate cut)

The BLS civilian employment numbers pretty much replicate private data such as from ADP or Challenger, Grey, and Christmas. This includes the time during Covid. Are you saying that two independent private firms also lie in the same way? Is there something specific that you found that you'd like to discuss or just general anti-governmental fear mongering?

I did tried to tell you guys.. the numbers are a lie.. :

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/trump-erika-mcentarfer-jobs-report-fired.html

@FelixDeCat was right!

Trump simply replied...

View attachment 127939

 

[dullard]

I did tried to tell you guys.. the numbers are a lie.. :

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/trump-erika-mcentarfer-jobs-report-fired.html

@FelixDeCat was right!

Still nothing about a lie there from the BLS. Trump might want lies--but that is another topic. You'll know there are lies when the BLS employees quit en masse.

Related: Kugler resigned from the fed today. Too much fed manipulation by Trump. But, her term was going to end in a few months anyways https://www.reuters.com/world/us/feds-kugler-resigning-fed-effective-aug-8-2025-08-01/

 

[biostud]

Novo Nordisk (Ozempic etc.) nearly down 70% from the top:

 

[FelixDeCat]

I did tried to tell you guys.. the numbers are a lie.. :

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/trump-erika-mcentarfer-jobs-report-fired.html

@FelixDeCat was right!

Frankly, firing that person (because you dont like the numbers) was a bad move and will undermine confidence in future reports because they may be questioned as biased in some way.

Now with one Fed governor leaving, he will have a chance to install a stooge that may let inflation run wild.

So lets so see....

* You cant trust the data
* Prices spiral out of control
* The Fed wont raise rates for political reasons

Hopefully it wont be this bad.

 

[Indus]

Frankly, firing that person (because you dont like the numbers) was a bastard move and will undermine confidence in future reports because they may be questioned as biased in some way.

Now with one Fed governor leaving, he will have a chance to install a stooge that may let inflation run wild.

So lets so see....

* You cant trust the data
* Prices spiral out of control
* The Fed wont raise rates for political reasons

Hopefully it wont be this bad.

No it'll be bad ^11ty billion! It'll be the TRUMPIEST BADDEST COUNTRY EVER and everyone will LOL!

You don't understand there's a method to his madness.

Why does no one immigrate to Russia or Uganda?? Because they're shit hole countries. So how do you make a country all-white christian??

1. make it a shit hole country
2. make it terrible for investors
3. make it terrible for immigrants
4. make it terrible for educated people
5. get rid of any dissenters/ educated people

That's how you MAGA. Where no dark skinned or opposing thoughts will ever be seen or heard from!

 

[FelixDeCat]

Novo Nordisk (Ozempic etc.) nearly down 70% from the top:

View attachment 128097

Healthcare stock were overbought like everything else. United Healthcare is actually upping payment of claims (doing what premium payers pay for - how novel). It was okay to screw the insured so long as shareholders got rewarded but now the script has flipped back the way it should have been. United is not a bargain.

Novo looks like a bargain, but who really knows where the floor is. Maybe when the dividend yield is higher.

 

[FelixDeCat]

No it'll be bad ^11ty billion! It'll be the TRUMPIEST BADDEST COUNTRY EVER and everyone will LOL!

You don't understand there's a method to his madness.

Why does no one immigrate to Russia or Uganda?? Because they're shit hole countries. So how do you make a country all-white christian??

1. make it a shit hole country
2. make it terrible for investors
3. make it terrible for immigrants
4. make it terrible for educated people
5. get rid of any dissenters/ educated people

That's how you MAGA. Where no dark skinned or opposing thoughts will ever be seen or heard from!

You are throwing the racial element in but I dont think its that. He just wants to be a king / dictator even if the large white liberal base in America disapprove.

 

[jpiniero]

Now with one Fed governor leaving, he will have a chance to install a stooge that may let inflation run wild.

The rate cuts are coming for sure, one way or another.

Maybe Donnie will crash the economy, justifying them. (And people will actually have to do their jobs again!)

 

[Brainonska511]

The rate cuts are coming for sure, one way or another.

Maybe Donnie will crash the economy, justifying them. (And people will actually have to do their jobs again!)

So.... do you have any proof that there are masses of people who "aren't doing their jobs", or are you still just waving around an imaginary effigy to rant against remote work?

 

[FelixDeCat]

I managed to sell AMZN at 237.6 As it turned out.. it was a good move.

I did not know this, but Amazon makes more money on ads for people trying to sell garbage on its platform than from actual sales on the platform?

The market claims it was because of cloud and Amazons lack of more data centers (yes, more!) to deliver on demand. Soon there will be a power hogging data center next to every McDonalds and two near every Starbucks. And yes, your power bill will continue to skyrocket.

We need more AI bro! Not more efficiency and less power consumption. More!!! More equals higher stock price on a 3 and 4 trillion dollar companies.

Enough with the AI, data center, power consumption loop.

 

[Red Squirrel]

AI companies should look at setting up some sort of program where anyone with extra rack space and power can get paid to rent it out to them. They ship you a 4U box that has GPUs in it, you rack it and plug it in and get paid for it as long as it's online. Kinda like what Flightaware does for their ADSB receivers. This would also help distribute the power load. I guess latency could be an issue, but not sure how critical that is for generative AI. For anything that's not real time it's probably not that big a deal when dealing with extra ms of latency. The person at the end is waiting seconds or even minutes to get a response back anyway.

 

[FelixDeCat]

AI companies should look at setting up some sort of program where anyone with extra rack space and power can get paid to rent it out to them. They ship you a 4U box that has GPUs in it, you rack it and plug it in and get paid for it as long as it's online. Kinda like what Flightaware does for their ADSB receivers. This would also help distribute the power load. I guess latency could be an issue, but not sure how critical that is for generative AI. For anything that's not real time it's probably not that big a deal when dealing with extra ms of latency. The person at the end is waiting seconds or even minutes to get a response back anyway.

Distributed computing for AI? Is that even possible?

(more importantly, would it get the stock price up)

 

[Artorias]

Berkshire taking a beating today. What the hell.

 

[dullard]

Berkshire taking a beating today. What the hell.

1) Poor earnings report: tariffs + international trade tensions + higher costs to be an insurance company.

2) Warren Buffett says there isn't anything worth buying as it is all overvalued and thus Berkshire is sitting on a massive pile of cash.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Speaking of data centers and lack thereof, apld is on fire again.

 

[Artorias]

1) Poor earnings report: tariffs + international trade tensions + higher costs to be an insurance company.

2) Warren Buffett says there isn't anything worth buying as it is all overvalued and thus Berkshire is sitting on a massive pile of cash.

I keep dollar cost averaging down, $490, $479. Need to find more cash.

 

[AdamK47]

How about that rebound?

What narrative are we going to play it into?

 

[IronWing]

How about that rebound?

What narrative are we going to play it into?

The market is going up because more hotties we never heard of are going to model jeans.

 

[FelixDeCat]

How about that rebound?

What narrative are we going to play it into?

Record highs will continue, or someone is getting fired.