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Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread đź’°

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VGT hit $700 out of the gate today.

It was just a bit over three months ago when I was buying into the dip all the way down to $460.

Tech was the outperformer yesterday and looks to be the same today.
 
jpiniero said:
The odds don't like a cut this time. Next time it is favored.
Click to expand...
Once again, I call attention to the fact that the primary reason that there has been no cut yet is the possibility that disruptive tariffs will boost inflation.

Since reductions in interest rates stimulate the economy, they therefore aggravate/corrupt any endemic inflation that isn't clear from the Fed's data streams.

But TACO (Trump always chickens out) rides to the rescue. IOW, the tariff scare was probably, unduly alarmist.
 
Checked the unemployment and the initial claims is even trending downward but still basically in range.

Yeah, the people whining about a recession on Reddit are mostly Gen-Z who don't want to understand that nobody wants to hire them.... especially when they are only looking for remote jobs.
 
jpiniero said:
Checked the unemployment and the initial claims is even trending downward but still basically in range.

Yeah, the people whining about a recession on Reddit are mostly Gen-Z who don't want to understand that nobody wants to hire them.... especially when they are only looking for remote jobs.
Click to expand...
You should look at the whole picture before reaching conclusions. You are correct that initial jobless claims have been down for a couple of weeks (but as you said are within the range that they have been recently). But the TOTAL people collecting unemployment insurance is UP over the last year.

Roughly 100,000 people more unemployed than this time last year:

1753893551753.png
See page 4: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

I also wouldn't use Reddit to get a whole picture. Of course Reddit is overweighted with Gen-Z posters. Generations such as the boomer generation tends to use Reddit less.
 
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jpiniero said:
Checked the unemployment and the initial claims is even trending downward but still basically in range.

Yeah, the people whining about a recession on Reddit are mostly Gen-Z who don't want to understand that nobody wants to hire them.... especially when they are only looking for remote jobs.
Click to expand...
^ one trick pony

"It wasn't this way when I started out, dang nabbit."
 
dullard said:
You should look at the whole picture before reaching conclusions. You are correct that initial jobless claims have been down for a couple of weeks (but as you said are within the range that they have been recently). But the TOTAL people collecting unemployment insurance is UP over the last year.

Roughly 100,000 people more unemployed than this time last year:

View attachment 127945
See page 4: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

I also wouldn't use Reddit to get a whole picture. Of course Reddit is overweighted with Gen-Z posters. Generations such as the boomer generation tends to use Reddit less.
Click to expand...

You might not want to believe Reddit but do you really want to believe .gov numbers after what they did during COVID?

It's a lie.. all of it!
 
Indus said:
You might not want to believe Reddit but do you really want to believe .gov numbers after what they did during COVID?

It's a lie.. all of it!
Click to expand...

You have to of been employed to be getting UI... which is why Gen-Z isn't showing up.

The Fed kept the rates steady although there was two who voted against it (wanting a rate cut)
 
jpiniero said:
You have to of been employed to be getting UI... which is why Gen-Z isn't showing up.

The Fed kept the rates steady although there was two who voted against it (wanting a rate cut)
Click to expand...

You remember the Florida website mess where you couldn't even apply for unemployment.. it would just run in circles as it was meant to keep people out of benefits.

Anyways the people voted for it.. they can suck on it hard now!
 
Indus said:
You might not want to believe Reddit but do you really want to believe .gov numbers after what they did during COVID?

It's a lie.. all of it!
Click to expand...
The BLS civilian employment numbers pretty much replicate private data such as from ADP or Challenger, Grey, and Christmas. This includes the time during Covid. Are you saying that two independent private firms also lie in the same way? Is there something specific that you found that you'd like to discuss or just general anti-governmental fear mongering?
 
A lot of positioning going on despite nothing new from the fed.

The market open tomorrow will be much more interesting. A lot of earning reports coming up after market close. The froth the fed stirred up will dissipate.
 
Trump imposes temporary taco tariffs, the market yawns for now as he will most certainly and quickly do something counter to it (telling his friends first so they can profit some how, of course).

At these loft AI hype loftly levels a 5% temporary pullback on "me too" trading to the downside then going right back up is not out of the question.

Just noise in taco land.
 
www.nintendo.com

Nintendo Switch Pricing Update - News - Nintendo Official Site

Pricing for the original Nintendo Switch™ family of systems and products will change in the United States based on market conditions, effective August 3, 2025. These include Nintendo Switch – OLED Model, Nintendo Switch, Nintendo Switch Lite and sel…
www.nintendo.com www.nintendo.com

You sure the tariffs are dead? Nintendo is raising the price of the Switch... 1 ... in the US on Sunday.
 
jpiniero said:
You sure the tariffs are dead? Nintendo is raising the price of the Switch... 1 ... in the US on Sunday.
Click to expand...
Trump TACOed a bit today. Delaying many of the tariffs yet another week (is this the 3rd delay? I can't keep track). But bring on the inflation, at least I've had a chance to prepare for it. The stock market is overdue for a correction.
 
Tariffs aren't the main concern today. It's the weak jobs report. Particularly the down revision of previous months. The coupling of the downward revisions with the July numbers hurt the fed. No doubt we would have had a July cut if they had this information.
 
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