Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

[linkgoron]

I already posted a definition above--not permanent. Even your links say things like "not persistent" and have an example "the transitory nature of life". Life, at least for most animals in on the time scale of years to decades. They didn't use words like fleeting, ephemeral, or or momentary that refer to quite short periods. They used a word that means non-persistent.

Either way, you are missing the point. Inflation did not last. Call that what you want. The key was that inflation was so severe that even if it did not last, the fed should have acted sooner. It is the severity, not the duration that was their problem.

Rate of inflation started going down only after the fed intervened and increased rates by around 3-4 percent to make it go down again (I presented the chart above). The fed actively worked to make it go down. It's funny to say that it was temporary when inflation decreased after actions to tame it were done.

Their assumption was that they would not need to intervene inorder for it to go down and they were wrong.

 

[dullard]

Rate of inflation started going down only after the fed intervened and increased rates by around 3-4 percent to make it go down again (I presented the chart above). The fed actively worked to make it go down. It's funny to say that it was temporary when inflation decreased after actions to tame it were done.

Their assumption was that they would not need to intervene inorder for it to go down and they were wrong.

You are deflecting from the definition. Inflation was transitory. Why it was transitory is irrelevant to the discussion. Plus, you didn't even remotely give a cause and effect analysis for your reasoning. One could also state the shipping log jam ended spring of 2022 which coincides with peak US inflation. Meaning it is possible the fed's actions had no measurable impact on the length of inflation.

You could do the same with labor shortages, oil prices, etc. Oh wait, someone already did. See the nice red peak? The biggest contributor to inflation was delivery delays, at least for the first year.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/covid-19-inflation-was-a-supply-shock/

 

[linkgoron]

You are deflecting from the definition. Inflation was transitory. Why it was transitory is irrelevant to the discussion. Plus, you didn't even remotely give a cause and effect analysis for your reasoning. One could also state the shipping log jam ended spring of 2022 which coincides with peak US inflation. Meaning it is possible the fed's actions had no measurable impact on the length of inflation.

I'm not deflecting from the definition, it's just a useless and extremist understanding of the definition. If someone understands "transient" as the opposite of "non eternal" then it's just a useless and worthless definition. Inflation will always be transitory because in the future all of humanity will be wiped out, as will the monetary system. When I find a "permanent" solution to something it's never actually permanent because maybe in 10 or 20 years it'll break. It reminds of the Brooklyn 99 joke: "I'm sorry I said that Forever stamps are a lie, because the Earth will eventually be swallowed by the sun”.

I am going to give the full Powell quote, where he said that when they said "transitory" they meant "would not need intervention from us" and fix itself "quickly", and will go no further on this topic. He also says that increasing rates was essential to decreasing inflation, and that they were wrong to say that it was transitory. I'm not saying that it's the only thing that helped with lowering rates, but according to them it was an essential part of getting inflation down. Maybe if they had waited another 2-3 years inflation would have gone down by itself, maybe 10 years, maybe not. That doesn't mean that it was transitory in the sense that they meant it.

POWELL: So in hindsight, it would've been better to have tightened policy earlier. I'm happy to say that. Really, it was this. We saw what we thought was that this inflation, which seemed to be mostly limited to the goods sector and to the supply chain story. We thought that the economy was so dynamic that it would fix itself fairly quickly. And we thought that inflation would go away fairly quickly without an intervention by us.

That it would be transitory. And that was very widely held. Not unanimously, very widely held view of economists around the world. And that the data were kind of friendly to that assessment, to that hypothesis, right up to the point when they weren't.

And so in the fourth quarter of '21, it became clear that inflation was not transitory in the sense that I mentioned. And we pivoted and started tightening. And as I said, it's essential that we did that. It was critical that we did that. And that's part of the story why inflation's going down now.

 

[Charmonium]

Fed makes policy that, as best as they foresee, will keep inflation hovering at about 2% - and that's not just for some arbitrarily chosen time frame. That is their target for every year until the end of time.

I can give anyone interested an explanation for why this is their policy but for now, just accept that as economic fact since that is precisely what it is..

It has been well known by economists since at least John Maynard Keynes, that tariffs raise prices on affected products. So it is virtually a tautology that tariffs cause inflation for any timeframe that they are in effect.

So how does raising interest rates act as a counterbalance. Mainly, higher rates effectively raises the cost of money, since that what rates measure. And higher rates therefore tend to reduce the level of economic activity which in turn keeps inflation in check.

So to summarize, Trump's tariffs raise prices (i.e., inflation). And the only way that the Fed has to blunt the inflationary effects of tariffs is with high interest rates.

If none of this seems to make any sense, in you're in very good company. However it still has the not inconsiderable virtue of being fact.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I foresee no cuts in July... still more hawks than doves.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/waller-makes-strongest-call-yet-for-rate-cut-in-july-underscoring-fed-divide-223023930.html

Inflation is till too high in my book.

 

[dullard]

I am going to give the full Powell quote, where he said that when they said "transitory" they meant "would not need intervention from us" and fix itself "quickly", and will go no further on this topic. He also says that increasing rates was essential to decreasing inflation, and that they were wrong to say that it was transitory. I'm not saying that it's the only thing that helped with lowering rates, but according to them it was an essential part of getting inflation down. Maybe if they had waited another 2-3 years inflation would have gone down by itself, maybe 10 years, maybe not. That doesn't mean that it was transitory in the sense that they meant it.

I am saying Powell was incorrect. The analysis has been done by multiple different groups after all the data is in and the dust has settled. The bulk of the inflation was transitory Covid-related effects (shipment lags, workforce disruptions, etc) that all self-corrected. It absolutely would not have been 10 years -- see the graph you ignored above in post #1277.

The Fed should have raised interest rates higher and sooner. Not due to the expected duration, but due to the severity. That was the essential part.

 

[Charmonium]

The Fed should have raised interest rates higher and sooner. Not due to the expected duration, but due to the severity. That was the essential part.

i haven't been following the financial news so the info I get is while channel surfing and picking up the odd factoid.

The impression I get is that the market seems to favor at least one cut this year, possibly in September.

Then there is always the Trump chaos coefficient. Even when a given tariff is in effect, you have no clue if that will change in the x number of days. He could eliminate all of the tomorrow and then double them the same day. Calling this a clown car is disrespectful even for clowns

 

[dullard]

The impression I get is that the market seems to favor at least one cut this year, possibly in September.

Then there is always the Trump chaos coefficient. Even when a given tariff is in effect, you have no clue if that will change in the x number of days. He could eliminate all of the tomorrow and then double them the same day. Calling this a clown car is disrespectful even for clowns

The last that I heard, the fed is expecting to do two cuts in 2025. There are only four fed meetings left in 2025 (July, Sept, Oct, and Dec). At least one cut by September is the most likely answer. The only other options are that the fed reduces it's planned cuts in 2025 (possibly due to the clown circus going on) or the fed backloads both cuts.

 

[dasherHampton]

Come on APLD.

Can you finally hold a gain you piece of #@##$$%$.

 

[JTsyo]

Have you guys heard of the UPRO/TMF strategy? Saw it a while back on the Boglehead forums but the thread was so long I couldn't really follow all of it. Today I found this summary and it's much more condensed. Basic breakdown is UPRO gives leveraged returns during bull runs and TMF hedges for bear markets. Thinking of putting in a small amount after the next correction to see how well it works.

 

[dullard]

I have a half dozen 529 accounts for my nieces / nephews. I had them on full aggressive investments for many years. Yesterday I switched to fully conservative. They still have some stocks in them, but I figured that I'd lock in their gains when the S&P was at all time highs. Plus, they are getting closer to needing to use them so a drop now would be painful.

Will I miss the top? Probably. But, it just seemed too risky to stay in the most aggressive growth strategy for the whole duration of the accounts (which could go 22+ years). I'm okay with the ~3x to ~6x return that they have made.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Just checked price of silver as it's been a while since I bought any or even kept track of it. It's at $52. When I bought it was in the 35ish range. May have bought some at 40.

According to Silvergoldbull based on my transactions there I'm at $1,971.57 profit if I was to sell. A 44% return. My best investment yet.

 

[herm0016]

I know the CEO of Blackstar enterprise group and bought some stock. BEGI is the ticker. they have some very interesting patents that are recent and they are now moving into a phase of testing and trying to get a few companies on board.

check it out if you like low price stocks.

https://www.blackstareg.com/ Would love to know some opinions on trading securities on the blockchain with actual SEC oversight and no tokens. Check out some of his interviews on their site.

 

[Charmonium]

Just checked price of silver as it's been a while since I bought any or even kept track of it. It's at $52. When I bought it was in the 35ish range. May have bought some at 40.

According to Silvergoldbull based on my transactions there I'm at $1,971.57 profit if I was to sell. A 44% return. My best investment yet.

Congrats furball. I definitely didn't think it would hit that anytime soon, but I guess inflation fears are at least partly to blame/thank. But then I still don't understand how crypto could be a thing.

Once the public investment gravy train got chuggin' . . . well, to the MOON.

But I'm still more comfortable with the idea that physical objects are 99% empty volume and the rest is just a collection of probabilities. It's sort of soothing to know for a fact that you can't ever really know anything for a fact.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Come on APLD.

Can you finally hold a gain you piece of #@##$$%$.

APLD seems to want to go back up to where it was. But with Coreweave divesting its position in APLD and buying Core Scientific instead, the handwriting was on the wall. APLD has earnings up pretty soon. Might break 13 or 8 depending on the report.

 

[FelixDeCat]

As far as other stocks, its seems in the AI/Crypto/You name it bubble we are in, people are looking for the "next big thing" to chase and drive up the stock price.

Lately its been - JOBY




An air taxi company that for the past few years since going public via risky SPAC, has spent billions trying to develop prototypes and get FAA approval.

..... the irony is every time I touch the stock it falls... I bought some at $11 and it quickly drops to $9, then recovers, breaks the 13 fib, and this week jumps up to $18. I now have a few shares and a call option.

The stock price is very frothy right now and shorts keep pounding the stock waiting for a pullback. I think this weeks gains might have been driven by a short squeeze.

Momentum is great when it works for you but very dangerous in a pullback. I can see this going back to $8 in a hurry. But with elevated interest, continued short squeezes, etc., it might see 20+, and I have tiny gamble on it.

The current valuation almost double that of American Airlines! ...and JOBY doesnt have one air taxi in the air yet!

Joby Friday valuation -

American Airlines Friday valuation -



So yes, this stock might be prime for a fall which is why shorts keep pounding the table. But with hype and hope being what it is these days, shorts worst fear is an irrational market chasing momentum.

 

[dasherHampton]

Yeah, I dont know what to do.

I bought 1000 APLD shares at 14. Luckily I sold 15 calls for $1000 so my break even value on the stock is like $13 a share. I probably should just sell right before earnings and take whatever loss comes with that.

And watch it soar to 18 the next day, knowing my luck.

Good news is that my QS shares are now green. After years of being WAY down.

Latest zombies to shamble:

AGEN
OUST
OPEN (can you believe that?)
Pagaya
MVIS


What do you think of NNE?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Yeah, I dont know what to do.

I bought 1000 APLD shares at 14. Luckily I sold 15 calls for $1000 so my break even value on the stock is like $13 a share. I probably should just sell right before earnings and take whatever loss comes with that.

And watch it soar to 18 the next day, knowing my luck.

Good news is that my QS shares are now green. After years of being WAY down.

Latest zombies to shamble:

AGEN
OUST
OPEN (can you believe that?)
Pagaya
MVIS


What do you think of NNE?

I used to follow NNE last year but lost interest. Looking at it now, it appears to be poised to go somewhat higher or lower. I am not sure however.


And I just picked up on OPEN today. Bulls are out of their mind. The company is hopeless and frankly should have just filed for BR and gotten it over with. Nevertheless we might see $4 before earnings because of momentum. Currently $2.20.

After reading the Motley Fool article I think the stock might be worth near zero, but I have no position either way.

 

[AdamK47]

Tech doing well ahead of earnings.

Let's see if VGT can hit $700.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Open Door almost opens 4.00 door🚪

 

[JTsyo]

Open Door almost opens 4.00 door🚪

Looks like the pump and dump is done.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Tesla should be under 200.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Beware the IPO market...not everyone is a winner..



Offer price 4.00, rockets to 22, dumps back to 4.00 - in the same day!

 

[biostud]

Maybe I should have bought in April

 

[Indus]

Tesla should be under 200.

Yep evaluations make no sense for most stocks.. I mean we're at 200 P/E ratios for some.

This rally is creating massive FOMO.. but with inbound tariffs.. I am going to wait.. what's 720 today could easily be 540 with some tariffs.