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Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

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JTsyo said:
I hear people get worried about the bond movement with the higher yields.
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I think that China's biggest trade war weapon is bond yields. China buys roughly 7% of our government debt. It is a small percent but still should be significant enough to drastically impact yields, especially if their movements (if any) spook other investors to follow suit. If China stops investing in US debt, then bond yields will have to raise (probably significantly) to encourage other entities to fill their place. Bond prices would then fall since why would anyone want the older lower-yielding bonds.

Higher yields mean things like building manufacturing in the US gets more expensive, mortgages get more expensive, automobile loans get more expensive, credit cards get more expensive. Spending here drops while also counteracting the goals of tariffs. And it puts China in charge, even over the fed.
 
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dullard said:
I think that China's biggest trade war weapon is bond yields. China buys roughly 7% of our government debt. It is a small percent but still should be significant enough to drastically impact yields, especially if their movements (if any) spook other investors to follow suit. If China stops investing in US debt, then bond yields will have to raise (probably significantly) to encourage other entities to fill their place. Bond prices would then fall since why would anyone want the older lower-yielding bonds.

Higher yields mean things like building manufacturing in the US gets more expensive, mortgages get more expensive, automobile loans get more expensive, credit cards get more expensive. Spending here drops while also counteracting the goals of tariffs. And it puts China in charge, even over the fed.
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From what I've read China hasn't done this yet. Most people seem to suspect rising yield is due to organic flight away from US debt...which is probably a lot worse.
 
K1052 said:
From what I've read China hasn't done this yet. Most people seem to suspect rising yield is due to organic flight away from US debt...which is probably a lot worse.
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All true. China hasn't done anything yet. But they have quite a trade war weapon that we don't have.
 
"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful." - Warren Buffet

The fear and ideology of others will continue to bring me wealth. Looking forward to more of it.
 
FelixDeCat said:
After several years, I am now 50% stocks and 50% bonds. Well see if I dont regret this.
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Good luck. Since I don't sell mutual funds, just buy and collect them, I'm still in the market. I'm 67% stocks, 20% CDs (paying 4.6% to 5.4% purchased over the last two years of record stock prices), 8% real estate, and 5% cash in mutual funds (paying ~4.2%). I just wanted to get even more into stocks with this dip.
 
dullard said:
Good luck. Since I don't sell mutual funds, just buy and collect them, I'm still in the market. I'm 67% stocks, 20% CDs (paying 4.6% to 5.4% purchased over the last two years of record stock prices), 8% real estate, and 5% cash in mutual funds (paying ~4.2%). I just wanted to get even more into stocks with this dip.
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I decided to go in deeper. Now 80 - 20:

1744227769803.png


I am still averaging in if it goes lower with new contributions.
 
Indus said:
Oh you went with fund instead of ETF??

I thought you wanted QQQ.
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I used my cash for today, have to wait until tomorrow for regular trading. I was shorting CoreWeave, made about 22% day trading puts in an hour, thankfully got out just in time! 😉

They cited tariffs as a risk in their IPO.

I was talking about retirement money into the only options available to me outside of Target Date Funds which I dislike.
 
Bought about $75K of VGT in the last two weeks from new money accumulation sitting in a money market. Setting buy limits in premarket to aftermarket. Even just last night I was buying it at $460 per share in aftermarket.

Time to take a break and maybe do the usual slow trickles. Wait until there is more bad news to buy into. No doubt there will be.
 
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I was buying June 20 2025 NVDA calls at $113 strike price when everyone was running for the exits in case of reversal or temporary pause on tariffs.

Never in my wildest dreams did I expect to be in the money within 48 hours.
 
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