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Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

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Just had a look.. puts to calls ratio is exploding today..

Market expecting a down day tomorrow or something??
 
Just took out the index funds I bought the other day, made around $4 off the dip, woo!

I would have left them in there but ended up having to spend that much at the vet and really need to try to put money on the credit line. My original plan was for my tax return to cover this. That and I wanted to actually test the sell feature and test transferring money as I have yet to do it. I will know in a few days when I see the money show up in the bank. I guess I probably should have done this on a Monday instead of a Friday though.
 
Red Squirrel said:
Just took out the index funds I bought the other day, made around $4 off the dip, woo!

I would have left them in there but ended up having to spend that much at the vet and really need to try to put money on the credit line. My original plan was for my tax return to cover this. That and I wanted to actually test the sell feature and test transferring money as I have yet to do it. I will know in a few days when I see the money show up in the bank. I guess I probably should have done this on a Monday instead of a Friday though.
Click to expand...

I sold AMD and made $2 but I got cash available.

Basically I'm almost all fluid.

The thing is.. I'm actually starting to wonder if the US is even investable in right now because if I weren't an American.. I would have serious doubts about investing long term in America.
 
jpiniero said:
Well, if they don't salvage Gen-Z's viability in the workplace... it's not going to matter much what the rest of the world thinks about the US's President.
Click to expand...

This probably belongs in P&N but I don't think the President's image is salvageable.
 
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jpiniero said:
Well, if they don't salvage Gen-Z's viability in the workplace... it's not going to matter much what the rest of the world thinks about the US's President.
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I work with many dedicated and intelligent gen Z software engineers as does my wife. The fact that you think nobody works says a lot more about you and the quality of your middle manager skills than anything else
 
Artorias said:
Could either of you expand on JEPI?

Pro/Cons, and risks.

Also assuming its the below fund?

am.jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF-ETF Shares | JEPI | J.P. Morgan Asset Management

View performance data, portfolio details, management information, factsheet, regulatory and other documents
am.jpmorgan.com am.jpmorgan.com
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Just a way to trade off risk for less expected return and introduce assets with some orthogonality to the stock and bond markets to my portfolio. My expectation is it will cushion a decline and maybe even make money in a flat market. Tax treatment sucks as @dullard said so don’t bother in taxable accounts. That goes for any options strategies.
 
Turkish markets have been in meltdown mode requiring central bank intervention to bring calm.

The current president of Turkey has been in power over 20 years and controls the second largest Army in NATO. He just had political opposition arrested! 😱
 
Further intervention ... short selling banned:

finance.yahoo.com

Turkey Bans Short-Selling, Eases Buybacks to Stem Market Slide

(Bloomberg) -- Turkey’s capital markets regulator imposed a ban on short-selling across all stocks and relaxed share buyback rules in a bid to prevent further deterioration of the market, which saw the country’s benchmark index tumble 17% following the detention of a prominent opposition...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com


Turkey’s capital markets regulator imposed a ban on short-selling across all stocks and relaxed share buyback rules in a bid to prevent further deterioration of the market, which saw the country’s benchmark index tumble 17% following the detention of a prominent opposition leader.
 
FelixDeCat said:
Turkish markets have been in meltdown mode requiring central bank intervention to bring calm.

The current president of Turkey has been in power over 20 years and controls the second largest Army in NATO. He just had political opposition arrested! 😱
Click to expand...

-A taste of things to come for us perhaps?
 
FelixDeCat said:
Turkish markets have been in meltdown mode requiring central bank intervention to bring calm.

The current president of Turkey has been in power over 20 years and controls the second largest Army in NATO. He just had political opposition arrested! 😱
Click to expand...

Hopefully you can start telling people around you don't chase freedumb.

It's not the same as freedom.
 
QQQ running for 500, currently 489

People pounding the table for Tesla after the 50% decline despite abysmal sales...271 today

App Lovin also crashed pretty hard after being rejected again by S&P committee and is now recovering...335 today

They also like Meta...617 today
 
FelixDeCat said:
QQQ running for 500, currently 489

People pounding the table for Tesla after the 50% decline despite abysmal sales...271 today

App Lovin also crashed pretty hard after being rejected again by S&P committee and is now recovering...335 today

They also like Meta...617 today
Click to expand...

I sold AMD for 107.. it's 112 today.

I originally wanted to go long and hold but I think with the Trump tariff volatility diversified ETF's are safer.

Just not sure now is the right time to invest. I mean just look at last week's concensus was get out of the market. Now it's time to get back in??

Might be a bull trap to ensnare us in again.. maybe @repoman0 is right.. go with safe bets for now.
 
Indus said:
I sold AMD for 107.. it's 112 today.

I originally wanted to go long and hold but I think with the Trump tariff volatility diversified ETF's are safer.

Just not sure now is the right time to invest. I mean just look at last week's concensus was get out of the market. Now it's time to get back in??

Might be a bull trap to ensnare us in again.. maybe @repoman0 is right.. go with safe bets for now.
Click to expand...
I agree, the ground will be shaky after April 2nd. In the meantime it looks like they want to run stocks up to kill volatility in puts and calls.
 
Bessent and Lutnik got sent out to calm the markets along with leaks that the 4/2 tariffs will be "targeted". So markets start to pop on the imaginary news.

I'm not sure how many trips on this roller coaster we have to endure before everybody disbelieves what they say because Trump almost inevitably comes out and says "No, actually I want the insane plan".
 
I think by July or August we should start to see price hikes of about 10% or mass layoffs to reduce costs. Maybe even a combination of both.

Tariffs are ultimately just consumption taxes (somewhat like a VAT tax). Higher costs usually lead to reduced demand.

Of course US produced items should flourish.... so long as you have 100% US supply chain...which it seems very few do, except maybe raw food producers do like farming, bees/honey, chickens, beef, bread, wood crafts. You know, an early 1900s economy. 🤠

Software, IT services, should also be okay, at least until the economy slows.

But the Trump will likely come back with stimulus checks with Republican Congress.
 
Indus said:
Wait are you finally becoming wise to him and all his bogus claims because it's him that wants to wreck the economy and the markets??
Click to expand...
He is attempting to retool our economy into manufacturing beyond just the service economy we have no matter the pain we endure in the meantime. But it takes at least a year to get a factory up and running. Then there are raw materials, a lot still comes outside the US.

Another reason to get us used to a "tariff economy" is to probably reduce our reliance on income taxes and include taxes on consumption. That makes sense as the rich hate income tax. Before the Constitutional income tax amendment we ran the Federal Government solely on fees, levies and tariffs. The government has since grown to be a giant, three headed monster with a bottomless appetite for more money.

The are many videos on YouTube explaining how the Federal Resrve needs income taxes, inflation and more debt to support our confetti money supply...but this a complicated explanation beyond this topic.

I am just thinking logically as far as possible moves and counter moves.
 
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FelixDeCat said:
But it takes at least a year to get a factory up and running.
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Your range (1 year to infinity) seemed a bit broad. So, I did a very quick search. Came up with this:
1742835953068.png

Seems like 2 years is pretty close to the median, but it would depend a lot on complexity (a semiconductor fab takes way longer than a metal shop to build). And I highly doubt many companies are interested in expanding right at the moment given the extreme uncertainty on things like tariffs that seem to change almost daily. So the ~2 year window won't start until Trump settles down.

Just today, we learned that the tariffs will be targetted instead of universal. But, in the opposite corner we are adding another 25% tariff on countries that buy oil from Venezuela (China, Brazil, India, Spain, Italy, Cuba, Singapore, Malaysia)

Then of course, we don't have people with those skills any more, so retraining millions of people to move from cushy desk jobs to manual labor will take quite some time to ramp up too. This of course ignores the likelihood that much of any new manufacturing would be automated.
 
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