Saylick
Diamond Member
- Sep 10, 2012
- 3,884
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- Aug 4, 2000
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We've been drifting for years with the same old playbook. Bureaucrats in charge from top to bottom, endless trillions squandered on nothing and the party goes on as the oligarchy grows ever richer.
Don't construe this to mean I support everything going on but I like someone to try something different.
As far as constantly bitching about it, feel free but you are barking up the wrong tree and we are all aware of what's going on.
Give us ideas on how to deal instead. Something we can all appreciate. 🙂
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Indus
Lifer
- May 11, 2002
- 14,853
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I dunno.. maybe try.. oh Socialism??
I mean why not.. you've already tried Feudalism, Colonialism, Capitalism, Authoritarianism, Fascism.
What've you got to lose at this point?
dullard
Elite Member
- May 21, 2001
- 25,799
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There are people (A) that want all the power and all the wealth. Then there are (B) the rest of us that want some of it too -- enough to have a reasonable pursuit of life, liberty, and happiness. There is no possible way to have both groups A and B appreciate the end result.
We need a leader that is willing and able to go towards a better, more sustainable optimum between the two because there is no pleasing everyone. Basically, your goal you just posted is impossible, so you are defaulting to making a known bad change just because it is a change. All systems in the history of the world have eventually failed when too much power and wealth get into too few of people.
brianmanahan
Lifer
- Sep 2, 2006
- 24,563
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kinda glad i moved a decent sized chunk of my roth IRA into IAU
up almost %30 since late december
Artorias
Platinum Member
- Feb 8, 2014
- 2,224
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- 136
Indus
Lifer
- May 11, 2002
- 14,853
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You guys might think this post is a joke.. but I think you all need to start preparing yourself for the coming future as overseas workers (like immigrants)
It's clear the US economy is going to take a nose dive the likes of which you've not seen within a year and it'll be drip by drip by drip.. not a sudden downturn where you buy the dip. This dip will seem endless.
I used to date this girl who had an entire house to herself because her parents were living overseas and sending money back home. I was like why are they working Saudi Arabia? They paid better than American jobs was the answer.
I think that is about to become the norm shortly.
NVDA looks like it's already thinking of offshoring and coming off the S&P 500:
Fortune 500 companies have got to be thinking of the same.. would they be an American company and put up with this shit show or move to Canada/ EU/ Dubai and have 97% of the possible market vs just 3% of the world market?
It's clear the US economy is going to take a nose dive the likes of which you've not seen within a year and it'll be drip by drip by drip.. not a sudden downturn where you buy the dip. This dip will seem endless.
I used to date this girl who had an entire house to herself because her parents were living overseas and sending money back home. I was like why are they working Saudi Arabia? They paid better than American jobs was the answer.
I think that is about to become the norm shortly.
NVDA looks like it's already thinking of offshoring and coming off the S&P 500:
Fortune 500 companies have got to be thinking of the same.. would they be an American company and put up with this shit show or move to Canada/ EU/ Dubai and have 97% of the possible market vs just 3% of the world market?
Well, if they don't end WFH... getting really serious about offshoring might be the next step regardless. With New Grads being worthless, there might be much of a point of being in the US.
A Trade War might not be the best way to go about it, but...
dullard
Elite Member
- May 21, 2001
- 25,799
- 4,340
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LLY has an Ozempic-rival in a pill form. Who wouldn't perfer a pill over regular weekly injections? https://www.reuters.com/business/he...ads-79-weight-loss-40-weeks-trial-2025-04-17/
UNH missed earnings. After they tried denying me a Covid shot this year, I hope they crash and burn to nothingness (claiming that I was too young to get this year's vaccine, then claiming that I shouldn't have had a consultation at the pharmacy when I got it, then claiming that I have to guess the code to get reimbursed, then rejecting the proper codes, and finally caving once I had enough evidence and pressure that they were denying legally required coverage).
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- Aug 4, 2000
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- Aug 4, 2000
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Indus
Lifer
- May 11, 2002
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With what Dumbass Turd is doing.. expect America only companies to grow and multinationals to look to exit!
I wouldn't be surprised if all of the TECH sector or most of it came off the S&P 500.
biostud
Lifer
- Feb 27, 2003
- 19,583
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Yeah I was wondering if it would be possible to split companies into let's say Microsoft and Microsoft-Europe, Nvidia and Nvidia-Europe etc. With some kind of intellectual cross licensing.
- Aug 4, 2000
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dullard
Elite Member
- May 21, 2001
- 25,799
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Interesting that when we put tariffs up to 145% on most China goods (up to 245% on some goods) that it is China meddling in trade.
What are your thoughts? Dead cat going to splat, bounce again, or is it now in freefall? I think splat but my crystal ball is out for repairs.
- Aug 4, 2000
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You know, Im not sure. The mag 7 will start reporting. I am tempted to sell and go back to just DCA. I think absolute worst case we might see QQQ sub 350, maybe 325. But it seems my worst predictions never come true....at least not usually.
The only thing is a Republican revolt on tariffs supported by Dems but the old Republicans like McConnell no longer have influence.
- Aug 4, 2000
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Also Trump trying to unseat Powell prematurely is rattling confidence in the US markets and the dollar. That's a banana republic move.
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 51,327
- 43,674
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The beatings will continue until investor sentiment improves.
- Aug 4, 2000
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And we are just getting started I think.
I was tempted to buy international as well.
I decided to take the 8% loss and just DCA back into US indexes over time. QQQ 300 was roughly the 2022 low, thats another 32% decline. 😱
I am now 100 / 0
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Indus
Lifer
- May 11, 2002
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I'm caught in 2 minds.. do I trust the S&P 500 to recover or do I put it somewhere safer?
We've never had a government actively try to destroy America and S&P 500 was always based in the belief of America.
dullard
Elite Member
- May 21, 2001
- 25,799
- 4,340
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For me the answer is obvious. I buy based on two criteria:
1) Is it relatively cheap compared to my other options (the first part of the standard buy-low, sell-high advice).
2) Do I need more of it in my portfolio (based on pre-defined criteria made when the market was normal).
From the massive S&P500 runup over the last 3 years, I do not need more of the S&P500 in my portfolio. This is true even with the recent pullback. But I do need more foreign stocks in my portfolio. And looking at the graph below, the S&P500 (blue line) is not relatively cheap compared to VXUS (yellow line).
Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) Mutual Fund Price & News - Google Finance
Get the latest Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.
www.google.com
- Aug 4, 2000
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Trump is prone to say crazy things, even things he can't do and later backs off. Unseating Powell is one of those things.
But thats not even the worse case. While I have long suggested it is impossible for America to repay the national debt, Trump may one day re-embrace a previous position of renegotiating the debt, which is a technical default. Being that money markets hold treasuries, your talking a 50% haircut or more....in cash!
I highly doubt he does this but the only place to hide from that is decimated stocks and just ride them down in hopes for a recovery one day or international investment grade bonds.
The only way to trim debt quickly is to cancel the currency and reissue new currency at something like a 2 to 1 conversion rate. The "new dollar" will be used to pay old debts.
Several countries have done this before including Mexico (did it twice).
Unfortunately this led to periods of extreme chaos and food riots in Mexico as grocery stores were stripped bare and gold was hoarded. Car notes and mortgages hit 80 to 90% interest rates.
That will definitely be a nightmare scenario.
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