Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,765
4,292
126
I love RTO cause I can be lazy as fuck and if anyone ever wondered where I am, I can always say I was discussing x/y/z project with Joe Fuckwad in the hallway like that want us to when we RTO.

What are they even supposed to say to that. How dare you collaborate with your colleagues we brought you back... Uh... Wait... Shit.
Ah, the water cooler discussion. Get paid 8 hours to do nothing when you are in the office and no one knows the better. Because you are in the office collaborating with your colleagues.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,765
4,292
126
Small companies and growth companies are getting hammered. Value companies, especially large value companies are doing quite fine. So, the small company funds are on my watch list. I think they need to drop another 10% for me to be seriously tempted to put more cash in. But, if my international funds keep skyrocketing, I might move some of that money into the small US company funds rather than using up my cash.

I have enough money in growth funds at the moment (due to their large growth the last couple of years), so their drop isn't remotely tempting me yet.

1741323983146.png

 
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biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
19,488
6,553
136
Small companies and growth companies are getting hammered. Value companies, especially large value companies are doing quite fine. So, the small company funds are on my watch list. I think they need to drop another 10% for me to be seriously tempted to put more cash in. But, if my international funds keep skyrocketing, I might move some of that money into the small US company funds rather than using up my cash.

I have enough money in growth funds at the moment (due to their large growth the last couple of years), so their drop isn't remotely tempting me yet.

View attachment 119158

Large value is doing fine as your rates will keep being high or increase :)
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
19,488
6,553
136
Not ready yet.
1) Announce tariffs
2) Stock market drops
3) Billionaires buy tons of stock
4) Cancel tariffs
5) Stock market goes back up.

We are at step #2 heading to #3.
Except 5 is not going to happen, as the uncertainty of DJT will move any sane investor to other markets.
 
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Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,326
3,406
136
If it's just too much to manage.. just stick to S&P etfs.
You can also try some low-fee (under 1%) sector funds.

I don't pay much attention to the stock market either, but then I have investments that are decades old and I prefer it that way - ride out the bumps. Almost everything is various types of funds. I'm not even sure what any more since I don't pay attention.

Just remember - the historical trend is always up. So "historical" is in what you want for your investments.
Rate cut by ECB to 2.5% in EURO area, 2.25% in Denmark.
I don't think we were going that deep but we'd still be on a cutting cycle - but for Trump. He seems to want a fully fledged recession and I suspect that he'll get his wish. Shrug.
 

Roy Batty

Junior Member
Aug 4, 2011
11
8
81
He seems to want a fully fledged recession and I suspect that he'll get his wish. Shrug.
I believe, for the time being, he'll get all his wishes. Which is why most, but not all, of my retirement is now sitting in G bonds until the market figures out how to react to all of his (and his minions') whims. As may be apparent, I know little or nothing about investing, I am not going to let the nuttiness in DC play havoc with my retirement nest egg.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,580
2,581
126
I believe, for the time being, he'll get all his wishes. Which is why most, but not all, of my retirement is now sitting in G bonds until the market figures out how to react to all of his (and his minions') whims. As may be apparent, I know little or nothing about investing, I am not going to let the nuttiness in DC play havoc with my retirement nest egg.
Welcome Roy.

I've been in bonds since 2022.
 

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,326
3,406
136
Investment grade bonds are great - IF you hold them to maturity. In that case, you aren't really concerned with interest rates. Sure, you might have some paper loses if rates go above what your bond is paying you. But in the meantime, you're getting precisely what you signed up for. That goes a long way to soothing the nerves. Personally, I don't hold any bonds or bond funds. To get a decent return of say 10%, almost by definition, you're looking at the junk end of the spectrum. I prefer to take my chances in the market but that is almost exclusively via Vanguard and T Rowe Price funds.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,580
2,581
126
So the government is set to shut down on March 14th unless the Republicans w/moderate Democrats approve a 6 month spending bill. So far many Republicans are unhappy with it.

Will the government shut down? And will the market just ignore it?

Thankfully Ive already gotten my tax refund back and applied it to debt repayment. I did not want to risk the shut down nonsense.


(Ive also updated my avatar, they are from the first version of Civilization from 1991, when the government is changed to despotism)

trump cabinet.jpg
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
16,134
6,595
136
I'll add that "are people on Reddit still asking about WFH / complaining about RTO" is my barometer as to whether the economy is in fact crashing.

So far they still are.
 
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Dec 10, 2005
27,488
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I'll add that "are people on Reddit still asking about WFH / complaining about RTO" is my barometer as to whether the economy is in fact crashing.

So far they still are.
So you're an event bigger idiot than you've led us to believe here.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
14,633
10,228
136
So the government is set to shut down on March 14th unless the Republicans w/moderate democrats approve a 6 month spending bill. So far many Republicans are unhappy with it.

Will the government shut down? And will the market just ignore it?

Thankfully Ive already gotten my tax refund back and applied it to debt repayment. I did not want to risk the shut down nonsense.


(Ive also updated my avatar, they are from Civ I from 1991, when the government is changed to despotism)

View attachment 119361

Thanks to the Trump tax cuts I actually owe $3760 vs when I used to get a refund before with Obama.

I scheduled them to take it on March 15th.. hopefully they're closed and they forget to take it this year!
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,765
4,292
126
Thanks to the Trump tax cuts I actually owe $3760 vs when I used to get a refund before with Obama.

I scheduled them to take it on March 15th.. hopefully they're closed and they forget to take it this year!
What someone owes / gets as a refund at tax time is probably the worst possible measure of what tax changes actually did. There are so, so, so many ways to game that particular value. The easiest way to get a refund is to put a different number on your W-4 form (either different number of credits on step 3 or different amount of withholding on step 4).

You essentially are making the point that getting $0.93 back in change on a steak dinner at a restaurant makes the steak cheaper than getting $0.75 in change on a packet of ramen noodles at a grocery store. The amount of change has almost nothing to do with the total price you paid because it ignores the important detail of how much money you handed over.

What matters is how much actual total tax you paid. Use it as a percent of your income if your income happened to change much. Percent of income also helps keep your data private if you want to discuss things on the internet.

Yes, SALT deduction changes may have made you pay more total tax. But, my point is that refund/owed amounts when you file your taxes is pretty much irrelevant to any meaningful discussion points.
 
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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
14,633
10,228
136
Since the government is "so shit at doing everything"

It's proving what it will do for crypto/ bitcoin..

(not that I mind lol)
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,580
2,581
126
Interview on Fox, Trump's is expecting a recession too. Thinks it's necessary before his policies create a strong economy.
I have long supported government reform, austerity and a balanced budget. If you start to too see a market limit down 5% or more it means a big flush. I am long QQQ puts now.

Considering the S&P pe ratio has been above average for quite some time there was plenty of fluff in the market.

And considering persistent inflation dont expect the Fed to come to the rescue.