- Aug 4, 2000
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- Aug 4, 2000
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I dunno, rates are creeping up as zero cuts are being priced in now, as predicted.
Bond guys about to get margin calls.
Charmonium
Diamond Member
- May 15, 2015
- 9,447
- 2,798
- 136
AdamK47
Lifer
- Oct 9, 1999
- 15,292
- 2,903
- 126
Charmonium
Diamond Member
- May 15, 2015
- 9,447
- 2,798
- 136
- Aug 4, 2000
- 29,264
- 2,081
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Unfortunately I think the stock market will be higher for longer.
We dont need to cut rates, we need to cut stock prices!
We dont need to cut rates, we need to cut stock prices!
- Aug 4, 2000
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dullard
Elite Member
- May 21, 2001
- 25,165
- 3,586
- 126
Easy. Buy millions of dollars of a stock and then pretend to be average little guy on Reddit while using the gullible to manipulate the stock price for you.
KB
Diamond Member
- Nov 8, 1999
- 5,401
- 386
- 126
"Keith Gill is a former financial analyst"
Who Is Keith Gill? The Man Behind Roaring Kitty
Keith Gill, known online as Roaring Kitty, is largely credited for spiking the GameStop surge in late 2020.
He wasn't an average stock guy. He was a youtuber who convinced tons of followers to jump off a cliff and milked them as they did, doing the old pump and dump.
"He went on to invest $53,000 of his own money in GameStop stock, which was once valued at approximately $48 million as the stock price peaked."
I want to know where the other $50 million came from, but if you have $48 millions its not hard to made $100 million.
- Aug 4, 2000
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AdamK47
Lifer
- Oct 9, 1999
- 15,292
- 2,903
- 126
The SEC market manipulation case with his previous employer was thrown out in February."Keith Gill is a former financial analyst"
Who Is Keith Gill? The Man Behind Roaring Kitty
Keith Gill, known online as Roaring Kitty, is largely credited for spiking the GameStop surge in late 2020.www.investopedia.com
He wasn't an average stock guy. He was a youtuber who convinced tons of followers to jump off a cliff and milked them as they did, doing the old pump and dump.
"He went on to invest $53,000 of his own money in GameStop stock, which was once valued at approximately $48 million as the stock price peaked."
I want to know where the other $50 million came from, but if you have $48 millions its not hard to made $100 million.
Now this guy is being brazen about his market manipulation. SEC is going to have their eye on him.
- Aug 4, 2000
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If you are disclosing your increasing stake publicly how is that manipulation?
He has a large option position expiring soon as well. He will need to short the stock and exercise the calls to wipe them out, buy millions of more shares at 20 or roll them out. No matter what he does all eyes are on him. Not an envious position to be in.
How do you determine what a reasonable market cap for a company is? Nvidia at 3 trillion seems overly steep.
I've been very, very long on Nvidia. Trying to figure out a 'sweet' spot to sell a few shares. Figure sometime after the split.
According to Quicken/Morningstar xray, In august 2023, nvidia was 23% of my direct and indirect holdings. Now it's 50% and I haven't added any shares. It seems the history of companies that hit the highest valuation typically has not fared very well in a long, long, long hold strategy.
I've been very, very long on Nvidia. Trying to figure out a 'sweet' spot to sell a few shares. Figure sometime after the split.
According to Quicken/Morningstar xray, In august 2023, nvidia was 23% of my direct and indirect holdings. Now it's 50% and I haven't added any shares. It seems the history of companies that hit the highest valuation typically has not fared very well in a long, long, long hold strategy.
- Aug 4, 2000
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That is what everyone is saying...and we all know who is doing it....the Wall Street Bets crowd and the millions of copy cats
There are actually big funds chasing those things. Buy millions of contracts and you can move a stock, even for a prolonged period of time.
And for support you have the "short vol" crowd shorting NVDA puts because it seems like a safe bet and free money...until it isnt.
I called 1300 /130 (pre/post split) as the top for Nvidia this year. We are only 80 dollars away!
Otherwise I will have to raise to 2100 / 210 and there is no way I can see that.
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AdamK47
Lifer
- Oct 9, 1999
- 15,292
- 2,903
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Hosts on Bloomberg joked that people didn't even know how to pronounce Nvidia a year ago.
My PC gaming mind explodes.
My PC gaming mind explodes.
dullard
Elite Member
- May 21, 2001
- 25,165
- 3,586
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You don't, not in the case of a bubble like NVidia. Right now the price is not dependent on fundamentals or anything else that you can reasonably determine. The price is a game of chicken. Buy high, sell higher, until you can't anymore. Just hope you aren't caught holding the hot potato when it does inevitably return back to normal valuations.
Instead, you determine (hopefully ahead of time before the bubble occurs) how much of your portfolio you want NVidia or similar technology stocks to be. Then sell when it exceeds that predetermined number.
I would hazard a guess that in August 2023 you didn't plan for NVidia to be half your portfolio. If that is true, you should begin considering selling it. At least enough to lock in profits--you don't have to sell a lot or sell it all at once. Sure, you might not hit the exact perfect moment to sell right at the peak. But, you can pat yourself on the back for doing exceedingly well and laugh all the way to the bank. Then don't look back.
- Aug 4, 2000
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Speaking of crazy momentum stocks.. I've been trading NVAX here and there. It's first major rally this year was from $4 to $13 less than 30 days ago on good news with cash infusion from Sanofi who will blend its covid drug with its flu drugs.
More good news has kept the stock on fire towards new 52 week highs. Yesterday I bought 1k at $18. It hit another brand new high of $27 premarket this morning on additional news of human bird flu case in Mexico. It's probably a matter of time before it hits the US with our stupid open border.
The funny thing is Nvax bird flu drug is not even approved yet but it's covid variant drug will be on shelves in August which the government is pushing.
Might sell to lock in profits and trade dips.
More good news has kept the stock on fire towards new 52 week highs. Yesterday I bought 1k at $18. It hit another brand new high of $27 premarket this morning on additional news of human bird flu case in Mexico. It's probably a matter of time before it hits the US with our stupid open border.
The funny thing is Nvax bird flu drug is not even approved yet but it's covid variant drug will be on shelves in August which the government is pushing.
Might sell to lock in profits and trade dips.
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Also NVAX is up almost 700% in 30 days so a large retest of 13 or 18 is not out of the question. But I think 21 is a more likely floor.
Current market cap is 3B with 800m in debt and 500m in cash and revs of 900m.
I have seen many other no name drug companies with 8B market caps so to see Nvax in the 30s this year or higher will not be a surprise. But then momentum could die and the next earnings might not be more of the turn around story and a big correction might happen.
Current market cap is 3B with 800m in debt and 500m in cash and revs of 900m.
I have seen many other no name drug companies with 8B market caps so to see Nvax in the 30s this year or higher will not be a surprise. But then momentum could die and the next earnings might not be more of the turn around story and a big correction might happen.
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KB
Diamond Member
- Nov 8, 1999
- 5,401
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People typically try to price a stock and thus its market cap, based on financial analysis, by using things like PE, PEG Ratio
Compare to Apple
and you will see NVDA is priced far higher than AAPL in a PE ratio (100 compared to AAPLs 31), but it has a lower PEG ratio, which means it is growing earnings faster and you can see its future PE is moving closer to AAPLs.
So what does all that tell you? Not much really. Stocks are rarely priced on fundamentals and mostly trade on momentum in the short term. The stock could go up or down in the future but the current trend is up. If analysts are correct in their assumptions, then NVDA is priced just about right for its 2027 earnings. If earnings grow passed 2027 then the price will likely rise. However if they are wrong, and earnings don't live up to expectations, then the stock is overpriced and will likely fall. Many believe that INTEL, AMD and TSMC will catch up to NVDA and cut into their sales, but I am not a semiconductor analyst so i don't know.
If 50% of my stock portfolio was in one name, I would sell some even if i was sure the stock could keep going up, but that's me.
Checked out unemployment and it's still pretty much flat? Between that and NVDA (and housing, which is still fucked), I see no reason to cut rates any time soon, even though I have seen some improvement in grocery store prices.
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