The one main 401K type fund I'm in tries to emulate the S&P, so that's really the only one I pay much attention to. Up 60 today, but still down 80 over 5 days. What will tomorrow bring?
As I mentioned a few posts up, we have seen this movie before.
Now I am not saying anything is guaranteed or foreseeable, but lets rewind 2020 again.......
Early Reports in China
Last year there were reports of an infections virus in China which was leading to drastic measures including shutdowns, quarantines and death. The market pulled back some in response but it was eventually dismissed as SARS part 2 and the market went back up the next trading session.
Welcome to Europe
Then reports of it surfacing in Europe hit the news and lock downs were going into place and the market pulled back hard. Over the next few days we made up a lot of that ground on hopes it could be contained.
Now in America
Suddenly we were informed it was in America in nursing homes in the North West. They promised containment but the market was spooked and we had our first 5% daily sell off. There were various reports of COVID like sickness in various parts of the country but were unconfirmed.
Travel Bans, lock downs and a market catastrophe nobody expected
Travel bans were put into place and there was talk of a national lock down. Day after day we had limit down moves in the stock market and a few crazy limit moves back up (ie Dow down several thousand points then back up several thousand points).
Major portions of the country were being shut down and quarantined as COVID was now everywhere, hospitals were packed, naval hospital ships deployed and sports venues were being converted into medical use.
The market, bitcoin, gold, oil, EVERYTHING was in virtual free fall. Day after day, the selling was relentless. Some REITS lost 90-95% of their value in days as they were getting 2008 style margin calls, some issuing going concern statements and warning of BANKRUPTCY
Whats ahead?
We have a couple of risk factors ahead........
1) The battle over extending the debt ceiling which was pushed back to December. Honesty I dont think there will be much fighting as the R's dont want to rock the boat close to Christmas. They will likely kick the can down the road again.
2) The announcement that OMICRON is now in America. Who knows how it will play out this time. It could be treated like Delta
or cause some panic if it causes lots of break through in the vaccinated.
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