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Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

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Nice day so far for me.

A lot of things that have been red for a long time in my accounts have finally started turning green.

The only thing that sucks is the usual: SAVA puts. Can trading be halted on options? I honestly have no idea. My SAVA puts have been stuck on -35% for a while now. They're not moving at all.
 
dasherHampton said:
I'm wondering if I should just take the $400 profit on my AMC puts and call it a day. That shit has to crash again doesn't it?
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I dont know. The stock is obviously overvalued, but so are many stocks in the market ....they used to call this a bubble back in my day.

AMC can be any price. It can be $100 or it can be $20. I dont see $10 any time soon unless there is some sort of unknown factor that causes a general market correction like we havent seen since March 2020.
 
FelixDeCat said:
I dont know. The stock is obviously overvalued, but so are many stocks in the market ....they used to call this a bubble back in my day.

AMC can be any price. It can be $100 or it can be $20. I dont see $10 any time soon unless there is some sort of unknown factor that causes a general market correction like we havent seen since March 2020.
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Yeah, I guess we just have to be surfers and learn how to ride the meme wave.

I sold a lot of MVIS $10 puts when it was down around $13 or so purely because it's in the meme stock category. I figured the reddit guys might take it higher. And look at it now.
 
dasherHampton said:
Yeah, I guess we just have to be surfers and learn how to ride the meme wave.

I sold a lot of MVIS $10 puts when it was down around $13 or so purely because it's in the meme stock category. I figured the reddit guys might take it higher. And look at it now.
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Meme stocks have been on fire. GME earnings on deck.

AMC options were pricey.

This morning, you could buy 100 shares of AMC for $5,500 and sell one $55 call option for $10, netting an instant $1000. These options expired in 3 days.
 
US dollars are down vs. other currencies around the world, even with developing countries.

Just a hiccup or????
 
destrekor said:
Thoughts on CLOV, anyone?
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I was looking into this not too long ago, before the runup. It turns out the stock crashed earlier this year when it was discovered that serial SPAC pumper Chamath Palihapitiya and the CEO Of Clover Viveck Garripalli failed to disclose numerous problems with the company before going public as revealed by Hindenburg Research:


-Critically, Clover has not disclosed that its business model and its software offering, called the Clover Assistant, are under active investigation by the Department of Justice (DOJ), which is investigating at least 12 issues ranging from kickbacks to marketing practices to undisclosed third-party deals, according to a Civil Investigative Demand (similar to a subpoena) we obtained

-In a CNBC interview announcing the Clover transaction, Chamath proclaimed, unprompted, “they create transparency…they don’t motivate doctors to upcode or do all kinds of things to get paid”. A former employee explained to us that the DOJ is specifically asking about upcoding, or the practice of overbilling Medicare.

-Clover has a thinly-disclosed subsidiary called “Seek Insurance”. Seek makes no mention of its relationship with Clover on its website yet misleadingly advertises to seniors that it offers “independent” and “unbiased” advice on selecting Medicare plans. It claims, “We don’t work for insurance companies. We work for you”, despite literally being owned by Clover, an insurance company. Its activities are also under investigation by the DOJ.


With this kind of chicanery tread very carefully. The current runup is just a short roasting party.


From what I've read the major shortcoming of SPACs is that all the warts are not fully revealed like traditional IPO's, which makes them dangerous. Like LordsTown Motors (RIDE) fake pre orders for "500,000" trucks that were placed by people with no obligation to take delivery and excessive losses that may drive the company into bankruptcy DESPITE raising over $500,000,000 in cash!
 
FelixDeCat said:
Meme stocks have been on fire. GME earnings on deck.

AMC options were pricey.

This morning, you could buy 100 shares of AMC for $5,500 and sell one $55 call option for $10, netting an instant $1000. These options expired in 3 days.
Click to expand...

Turns out this wasnt such a great idea after all. With the SEC announcement they are investigating the manipulation of stock prices of meme stocks, AMC and GME fell pretty hard today. On paper you are down $219 after subtracting call premium. Next weeks $55 calls pay $425 as of today.

Its kind of weird how management has treated share holders lately - they gave them free popcorn after paying for a movie then it was time for the bad news - more dilution was on the way and they suggested the stock was overvalued and encouraged people NOT to buy shares at these prices!
 
dasherHampton said:
SAVA up almost $14 to $80 and my $20 puts are worth less now than when it rose from like $32 to $39.

Hilarious.
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ANVS and SAVA were on fire today, not sure why. Who knows what will happen Monday.

Someone mentioned CYTH as a possible cheap Alzheimer's play. They also have other treatments they are working on. Market cap is sub $80m. The 5 day chart is a thing of beauty.

They will present at a conference next Friday and are due for a report to the FDA soon. Current price is $10.50.

Not sure where it goes next either up or down, but I have a few shares.
 
FelixDeCat said:
ANVS and SAVA were on fire today, not sure why. Who knows what will happen Monday.

Someone mentioned CYTH as a possible cheap Alzheimer's play. They also have other treatments they are working on. Market cap is sub $80m. The 5 day chart is a thing of beauty.

They will present at a conference next Friday and are due for a report to the FDA soon. Current price is $10.50.

Not sure where it goes next either up or down, but I have a few shares.
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I think 2 reasons.

1) Since Biogen was approved it will be very hard for SAVA and others to be denied now. The bar has been set.

2) Biogen released what a yearlong treatment will cost and its pretty high, like 56K. If SAVA shows more effectiveness they'll be a money making machine.

I could see SAVA going to $500 or higher.
 
Fed meets this week. Be entertaining to see what would happen if they say anything that could be mistaken for advocating raising rates.
 
I'm still trying to figure out why the Wall St analysts still seem to think that Intel is a better stock pick than AMD at the moment. This is how I'm looking at it:

  • Intel is losing market-share to AMD in the server, desktop, and laptop markets. The AMD products in each product line are now faster, cheaper, and more power efficient.
  • Intel is losing Apple as a major customer, which is going to cost them another chunk of business next year
  • Intel is now about 3 years behind TSMC in processor manufacturing technology, which is the fab that most other tech companies now use
  • Intel still doesn't make GPU's yet, and well behind Nvidia and AMD in this space. Because of this, they completely missed the boat on crypto mining.
  • Intel also about to get competition from Nvidia in the data center as well

It is strictly a P/E ratio thing, or am I missing something? Intel's new CEO (Pat Gelsinger) is also being heralded as a savior of the company, even though he seemingly ran VMWare into the ground during his tenure. I guess that you could blame that on the rise of cloud hosting, though.
 
I find it amusing that people at the Fed are "stunned" by the sudden increase in inflation. Perhaps these guys should leave their ivory towers and try shopping at a grocery store once in awhile. If they have over the past six months, they would have seen this coming.
 
I think the reality is setting in for me that there may not really be a "safe haven" for inflation. If everyone is going to be cash strapped due to everything being more expensive, that's going to be negative for almost all traditional investments. Sure companies that generate cash are going to whether it best due to their ability to purchase back their own stock - but we're not going to really know which companies those are until hindsight. The companies that are generating cash now may not be during a period of inflation that forces people to cut back their spending. I feel like there is going to be this huge spending frenzy this summer, and then all of a sudden a bunch of Americans are going to realize they can no longer afford what they could prior to COVID.

The best/safest thing to do right now is to start new job hunting and look for that 30-40% raise (you should always be doing this anyway). You can at least easily get ahead of inflation if you find that new job paying you that much more than today. And with the Great Resignation potentially being a thing, now's the best time more than ever to do it. I'm even going to test the market out myself again to see what opportunities may come along. If I got an offer that comped me more than 50% of my prior job, I would be tempted to take it on and dump deposable income into the markets potentially setting me up for fat-FIRE in my 40s.

Inflation is such a weird place because your dollar devalues so you don't really want it, but at the same time you do because if other traditional investments tank your purchasing power goes up there potentially setting you up for some lucrative gains much later down the line.
 
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I'm currently thinking about buying a new place and I'm pretty sure that if I do I'm just going to keep my old one instead of selling it.

With current economic conditions I'm guessing its probably better to have property than cash. Can't have too much land.
 
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