Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

[uclaLabrat]

Haha never said it was easy, just saying there are volatile stocks that go up or down more than that in a day, so playing the volatility game can be productive.

 

[ponyo]

You have a link to a good article? I had to read a few to get somewhat of an idea, but they weren't very detailed.

The overall gist I understood is that they bet big on Viacom and the like and when they tanked on the offerings, the Archegos fund was margin called.

EDIT: I see now you will post a link later!

The articles I read were from Forbes, Bloomberg, and CNBC. And WSB had bunch of posts on Archegos and what went on. I don't know how much of it is true but it's fun to read.

Forbes
https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoin...ets-disclosed-almost-nothing/?sh=6e511f133567

Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...greatest-hidden-fortunes-is-wiped-out-in-days

CNBC
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/30/meet-bill-hwang-the-man-behind-archegos-capital-management.html

another CNBC
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/the-archegos-blowup-and-its-ripple-effect-across-markets.html

It sounds like Sung Kook Hwang took tens of millions of dollars and leveraged heavily and ultimately grew it to $15 billion in about 7 years before blowing it all up. Now he owes like $5-10 billion to Nomura and Credit Suisse which he can't pay. It sounds like Nomura suffered $2 billion in loss and Credit Suisse is rumored for $3 billion to $7 billion. If true, that's huge losses suffered by the greedy banks.

The banks were so greedy for millions in commission and fees that they got played by Hwang. He was able to leverage 5-10x his money in extremely concentrated positions by using swaps. There's no way the risk management at the banks would approved 5 to 10x margin if they had any idea how concentrated Archegos positions were. But because he used swaps and did huge business with Nomura, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, the risk management teams didn't have the complete picture and let their guards down. But when Hwang got the first margin call after the Viacom secondary and couldn't pay, the banks got together and talked and realized how screwed they were. They realized they were holding crazy large concentrated positions in very few media names and Chinese stocks. They knew if they tried to sell it at once, it would tank the price in the those stocks so they made a pact that they would slowly unload not to cause panic selling. But of course Goldman Sachs backstabbed everyone and unloaded all their positions at once. Morgan Stanley quickly followed. So Goldman and Morgan basically didn't suffer any loss. They left Nomura and Credit Suisse holding the bag. Nomura and Credit Suisse like idiots trusted Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to stick to the plan of slow liquidation. There is no honor among thieves.

 

[FelixDeCat]

nvm

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Starting to read some crazy stuff on Reddit again about a bond short being the nuclear bomb of the markets... that makes GME seem like nothing. Here's the link: The Everything Short. Take with a grain of salt, considering the source is /r/GME. But you never know.

Maybe we are going to head into a, "everything not fiat and limited in supply pump". Those 1st edition PSA10 Charizards already going for over $250K...

 

[FelixDeCat]

Starting to read some crazy stuff on Reddit again about a bond short being the nuclear bomb of the markets... that makes GME seem like nothing. Here's the link: The Everything Short. Take with a grain of salt, considering the source is /r/GME. But you never know.

Maybe we are going to head into a, "everything not fiat and limited in supply pump". Those 1st edition PSA10 Charizards already going for over $250K...

Oh lawd....dont tell me we are doing the 50 x 1 leverage thing again. This is the same crap that brought us the market meltdown and global credit crises of 2008.

First came some obscure Asian hedge fund, next up is ???

 

[Roger Wilco]

Is the NASDAQ no longer freaking out about bond yields? Even EV stocks are killing it right now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Is the NASDAQ no longer freaking out about bond yields? Even EV stocks are killing it right now.

Not today at least. Wait till the 10y breaks 2% and makes a run for 2.5%.

Expect fireworks.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Not today at least. Wait till the 10y breaks 2% and makes a run for 2.5%.

Expect fireworks.

There's also the chance that inflation is here. Gold may have bottomed, and if that reverses we could have rising stocks + rising gold + rising rates all at once. Maybe they freak out in the short-term, but stock markets are at ATHs and it's not like the 10yr really dipped in any meaningful way.

 

[ponyo]

Tesla out with their Q1 2021 production and delivery numbers. 180,338 vehicles produced, 184,800 vehicles delivered.

https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q1-2021-vehicle-production-deliveries

These are some great numbers. It's way more than I was expecting. So I'm pleasantly surprised and super happy with the report. 180,338 produced were all Model 3 and Model Y. Tesla did not produce any Model S & X this quarter because of the vehicles refresh. Normally, Tesla sells about 15,000 Model S & X per quarter. So if you add that, it could've been close to 200,000 quarter. Which is amazing considering Q1 is always the weakest quarter. This quarter Tesla had to deal with worldwide chip shortage which shut down Fremont factory for couple days to a week. And they had the factory fire at the casting machine which also cost them production time. And Q1 also has the least amount of days in the quarter and there's the seasonality holiday hangover and cold weather issue. So for Tesla to deliver this kind of numbers exceeded all my expectations. I was secretly hoping for 170k range, while expecting 160k range while mentally bracing for the fact they could report 150k to even low as 140k. So I'm elated at 180k. I know in the big picture these small fluctuations in the quarterly delivery numbers is not a big deal. What matters is longterm yearly trends and Tesla's execution towards that goal. But Wall Street cares greatly about these stupid quarterly numbers so we're dragged into this short-term thinking stuff whether we like it or not.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Tesla out with their Q1 2021 production and delivery numbers. 180,338 vehicles produced, 184,800 vehicles delivered.

https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q1-2021-vehicle-production-deliveries

These are some great numbers. It's way more than I was expecting. So I'm pleasantly surprised and super happy with the report. 180,338 produced were all Model 3 and Model Y. Tesla did not produce any Model S & X this quarter because of the vehicles refresh. Normally, Tesla sells about 15,000 Model S & X per quarter. So if you add that, it could've been close to 200,000 quarter. Which is amazing considering Q1 is always the weakest quarter. This quarter Tesla had to deal with worldwide chip shortage which shut down Fremont factory for couple days to a week. And they had the factory fire at the casting machine which also cost them production time. And Q1 also has the least amount of days in the quarter and there's the seasonality holiday hangover and cold weather issue. So for Tesla to deliver this kind of numbers exceeded all my expectations. I was secretly hoping for 170k range, while expecting 160k range while mentally bracing for the fact they could report 150k to even low as 140k. So I'm elated at 180k. I know in the big picture these small fluctuations in the quarterly delivery numbers is not a big deal. What matters is longterm yearly trends and Tesla's execution towards that goal. But Wall Street cares greatly about these stupid quarterly numbers so we're dragged into this short-term thinking stuff whether we like it or not.

Im starting to notice Teslas everywhere now. Im thinking to myself, "where did all these these Teslas come from"? This is DFW not Seattle. Yet suddenly there are appearing everywhere.

I normally avoid Tesla stock and options because they are so expensive. But last week, out of the clear blue sky, I decided to dabble in 100 share trades. Just buys and sells. Actually lost a little bit, not much. EV stocks got a really good bounce after Bidens call for infrastructure spending on charging networks. .

 

[Torn Mind]

Im starting to notice Teslas everywhere now. Im thinking to myself, "where did all these these Teslas come from"? This is DFW not Seattle. Yet suddenly there are appearing everywhere.

I normally avoid Tesla stock and options because they are so expensive. But last week, out of the clear blue sky, I decided to dabble in 100 share trades. Just buys and sells. Actually lost a little bit, not much. EV stocks got a really good bounce after Bidens call for infrastructure spending on charging networks. .

Pretty much any SFH house with garage can seamlessly accommodate an EV cold turkey.
EVs wouldn't face much resistance if certain politically expedient benefits were emphasized instead of just environment.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Pretty much any SFH house with garage can seamlessly accommodate an EV cold turkey.
EVs wouldn't face much resistance if certain politically expedient benefits were emphasized instead of just environment.

If you buy an EV thats not a Tesla and start to tout its benefits online you might "trigger" some people:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-owner-mustang-mach-e-151927893.html

This guy purchased a Ford Mach E and praised it over a Model X online ....and then got death threats. 😱

 

[Torn Mind]

If you buy an EV thats not a Tesla and start to tout its benefits online you might "trigger" some people:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-owner-mustang-mach-e-151927893.html

This guy purchased a Ford Mach E and praised it over a Model X online ....and then got death threats. 😱

Tesla owners just don't know they're doing something as old as time. "Car Wars"

 

[FelixDeCat]

Tesla owners just don't know they're doing something as old as time. "Car Wars"

Ford started making cars in 1903. Nine years later in 1912, a feisty young upstart called "Chevrolet" made a 40hp V6 for sale. It was an expensive car, selling for $2500, when the average Ford went for $450.

Henry Ford was feeling the heat however, with a total of 200 other car makers competing with him.

Ford was forced to innovate by introducing a crazy concept called "mass production" in 1913 using a moving assembly line. With replaceable parts and mass production you need well paid workers who can put up with stress of making millions of Model T's. So in 1914 he introduced the highest wage in America at the time for factory workers - $5 per day. He also introduced three shits to cut down on worker fatigue, shortening the average workday from 12 hours to 8 hours.

Chevrolet began to adopt Ford practices and introduced a $490 car in 1916.

In 1917 Ford first introduced the first pickup truck. Chevy followed in 1918 with a pickup truck.

In 1918 Chevrolet is acquired by General Motors, joining Cadillac and Buick among several others who were trying to compete with Ford.

By 1927, General Motors surpasses Ford Motor Company in total vehicle sales.

In 1935 GM introduces the first SUV, the Suburban.

In 1956, Ford Motor goes public in the largest IPO in history at the time.


Fast forward to 2003 ....and along comes Tesla.

 

[zinfamous]

Ford started making cars in 1903. Nine years later in 1912, a feisty young upstart called "Chevrolet" made a 40hp V6 for sale. It was an expensive car, selling for $2500, when the average Ford went for $450.

Henry Ford was feeling the heat however, with a total of 200 other car makers competing with him.

Ford was forced to innovate by introducing a crazy concept called "mass production" in 1913 using a moving assembly line. With replaceable parts and mass production you need well paid workers who can put up with stress of making millions of Model T's. So in 1914 he introduced the highest wage in America at the time for factory workers - $5 per day. He also introduced three shits to cut down on worker fatigue, shortening the average workday from 12 hours to 8 hours.

Chevrolet began to adopt Ford practices and introduced a $490 car in 1916.

In 1917 Ford first introduced the first pickup truck. Chevy followed in 1918 with a pickup truck.

In 1918 Chevrolet is acquired by General Motors, joining Cadillac and Buick among several others who were trying to compete with Ford.

By 1927, General Motors surpasses Ford Motor Company in total vehicle sales.

In 1935 GM introduces the first SUV, the Suburban.

In 1956, Ford Motor goes public in the largest IPO in history at the time.


Fast forward to 2003 ....and along comes Tesla.

90 year+ gap....OK, yeah, that makes sense in a way.

US has been failing pretty terribly since 1976 or so. They effectively gave up.

 

[Torn Mind]

Ford started making cars in 1903. Nine years later in 1912, a feisty young upstart called "Chevrolet" made a 40hp V6 for sale. It was an expensive car, selling for $2500, when the average Ford went for $450.

Henry Ford was feeling the heat however, with a total of 200 other car makers competing with him.

Ford was forced to innovate by introducing a crazy concept called "mass production" in 1913 using a moving assembly line. With replaceable parts and mass production you need well paid workers who can put up with stress of making millions of Model T's. So in 1914 he introduced the highest wage in America at the time for factory workers - $5 per day. He also introduced three shits to cut down on worker fatigue, shortening the average workday from 12 hours to 8 hours.

Chevrolet began to adopt Ford practices and introduced a $490 car in 1916.

In 1917 Ford first introduced the first pickup truck. Chevy followed in 1918 with a pickup truck.

In 1918 Chevrolet is acquired by General Motors, joining Cadillac and Buick among several others who were trying to compete with Ford.

By 1927, General Motors surpasses Ford Motor Company in total vehicle sales.

In 1935 GM introduces the first SUV, the Suburban.

In 1956, Ford Motor goes public in the largest IPO in history at the time.


Fast forward to 2003 ....and along comes Tesla.

Ford got its flaws in its culture, but they know how to match performance metrics when needed. Carroll Shelby pulled that off, and Tesla is likely going to get owned in the "muscle EVs".

Toyota outdid them though by putting in "consumer TLC" into the process instead of pure numbers chasing...and that spelled the need for the government to start bailing out the industry and negotiate on their behalf. We shall see if those investments were worth it and if this electric wave will finally have them reclaim something of a substantial position.

 

[FelixDeCat]

90 year+ gap....OK, yeah, that makes sense in a way.

US has been failing pretty terribly since 1976 or so. They effectively gave up.

Three words - United Auto Workers.

Its a shame though, since I think getting your fair share of profits is worthwhile to all workers. The CEO and upper management should not walk away with the lions share. Thus, part of a workers pay should be in company shares IMO.

Were we go downhill with the concept of organized labor is excess. Getting rid of the ability of a company to randomly fire people with our without cause. Not being allowed to terminate bad workers for poor performance w/o going through an extended grievance process that goes nowhere. All workers are paid the same, regardless of performance or outcome.

Then there are other dumbsht things like not being able to close factories w/o union approval, limited number of temp positions for non skilled jobs (janitorial, general labor, etc.), layoffs are almost impossible and they are usually WITH PAY for up to a year.

How can you run a business with that kind of excess? There are tons of other examples of nutty union policies like "rubber rooms" where workers who in the process of being fired report to and sit around reading magazines for 8 hours while their cases are reviewed by the union. They can report to a rubber room with full pay for months or years.

Here is an example of NYC Teachers Union rubber rooms from 2010:

In the video, the person being interviewed says changes were coming (that was 11 years ago), yet you have "someone accused of sexual misconduct in 1999, has remained in reassignment ever since and has received at least $1.7 million in salary with full health and pension benefits as of 2019."

Can you imagine Tesla being forced to put up with that?

 

[uclaLabrat]

Imagine having to pay execs or CEOs millions of dollars to fail.

Oh wait.

 

[Torn Mind]

Three words - United Auto Workers.

Its a shame though, since I think getting your fair share of profits is worthwhile to all workers. The CEO and upper management should not walk away with the lions share. Thus, part of a workers pay should be in company shares IMO.

Were we go downhill with the concept of organized labor is excess. Getting rid of the ability of a company to randomly fire people with our without cause. Not being allowed to terminate bad workers for poor performance w/o going through an extended grievance process that goes nowhere. All workers are paid the same, regardless of performance or outcome.

Then there are other dumbsht things like not being able to close factories w/o union approval, limited number of temp positions for non skilled jobs (janitorial, general labor, etc.), layoffs are almost impossible and they are usually WITH PAY for up to a year.

How can you run a business with that kind of excess? There are tons of other examples of nutty union policies like "rubber rooms" where workers who in the process of being fired report to and sit around reading magazines for 8 hours while their cases are reviewed by the union. They can report to a rubber room with full pay for months or years.

Here is an example of NYC Teachers Union rubber rooms from 2010:

In the video, the person being interviewed says changes were coming (that was 11 years ago), yet you have "someone accused of sexual misconduct in 1999, has remained in reassignment ever since and has received at least $1.7 million in salary with full health and pension benefits as of 2019."

Can you imagine Tesla being forced to put up with that?

Tesla ordered to have Elon Musk delete anti-union tweet

The NRLB has directed Tesla to ask Musk to remove his offending tweet, and to offer a job back to a terminated employee who participated in union organizing.

www.cnbc.com

Tesla is found to have violated labor laws by firing union supporter and Elon Musk tweeting something

The National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) has ruled today that Tesla has violated labor laws by firing an employee over...

electrek.co

 

[FelixDeCat]

Imagine having to pay execs or CEOs millions of dollars to fail.

Oh wait.

So - two wrongs make a right?

If a company negotiates a contract w/a perspective CEO that includes stupid clauses that they get paid millions win, lose or draw..thats on the company for being stupid. As shareholders, we are supposed to oppose that.

(Seriously though, teachers unions are as bad as auto unions.)

 

[FelixDeCat]

Tesla ordered to have Elon Musk delete anti-union tweet

The NRLB has directed Tesla to ask Musk to remove his offending tweet, and to offer a job back to a terminated employee who participated in union organizing.

www.cnbc.com

Tesla is found to have violated labor laws by firing union supporter and Elon Musk tweeting something

The National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) has ruled today that Tesla has violated labor laws by firing an employee over...

electrek.co

Some headlines, but what point are you trying to make?

 

[zinfamous]

Three words - United Auto Workers.

Its a shame though, since I think getting your fair share of profits is worthwhile to all workers. The CEO and upper management should not walk away with the lions share. Thus, part of a workers pay should be in company shares IMO.

Were we go downhill with the concept of organized labor is excess. Getting rid of the ability of a company to randomly fire people with our without cause. Not being allowed to terminate bad workers for poor performance w/o going through an extended grievance process that goes nowhere. All workers are paid the same, regardless of performance or outcome.

Then there are other dumbsht things like not being able to close factories w/o union approval, limited number of temp positions for non skilled jobs (janitorial, general labor, etc.), layoffs are almost impossible and they are usually WITH PAY for up to a year.

How can you run a business with that kind of excess? There are tons of other examples of nutty union policies like "rubber rooms" where workers who in the process of being fired report to and sit around reading magazines for 8 hours while their cases are reviewed by the union. They can report to a rubber room with full pay for months or years.

Here is an example of NYC Teachers Union rubber rooms from 2010:

In the video, the person being interviewed says changes were coming (that was 11 years ago), yet you have "someone accused of sexual misconduct in 1999, has remained in reassignment ever since and has received at least $1.7 million in salary with full health and pension benefits as of 2019."

Can you imagine Tesla being forced to put up with that?

The UAW never demanded that Ford and GM continue to make shitty non-competitive cars that the market no longer wanted for decades while the Japanese and Germans were slaughtering them.

The UAW's role in "destroying Detroit" is massively overblown.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The UAW never demanded that Ford and GM continue to make shitty non-competitive cars that the market no longer wanted for decades while the Japanese and Germans were slaughtering them.

The UAW's role in "destroying Detroit" is massively overblown.

You got to cut corners somewhere to pay for all that union carp. And when your workers dont care about quality, guess what happens? Yeah.

Also the engineers are to blame for some poor designs here and there.

 

[zinfamous]

You got to cut corners somewhere to pay for all that union carp. And when your workers dont care about quality, guess what happens? Yeah.

Also the engineers are to blame for some poor designs here and there.

that doesn't make any sense. It has nothing to do with cutting corners or "workers not caring about quality"--lol, that last part doesn't even mean anything. You build the cars and use the parts that are supplied. It has nothing to do with the workers.

They weren't cutting corners--they specifically refused to build cars that the market wanted at the time. Why would anyone lumber around at 7 mpg when the other guys were building much cheaper, much more dependable cars, that would get you 3x the efficiency? ...especially during and after the oil crisis. They refused to adapt. And yes, for a few generations, the cars were designed for ~10 year obsolescence. So yeah, they were "built crappily," but that was by design and it had nothing to do with the labor or the cost of labor.

The assholes in charge just determined that they knew what customers wanted despite what customers were actually buying.

 

[Torn Mind]

Some headlines, but what point are you trying to make?

Nothing broad. Just giving couple articles of what is going on. The UAW does get involved elsewhere in the industry via financial support.

As someone who has a little economics education, there are some effects of unions that are negative.

At the same time, the system here is designed so that you cannot relent legally on your stance; you always have to push for more and do it "dirty" to get the optimal legal result. There comes a point where it is no longer dire straits of the worker but killing the golden goose and building a castle of complacency.