Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

Feels weird not to trade or watch the markets since I've been interested in stocks most of my life.

Since I couldn't help it, I did see Tilray hit $30.

No trading for me right now.

 

[Roger Wilco]

SRNE just exploded upward 🙂

I bought some GILT earlier on a whim, and now it's up 16% lol. I'm not feeling guilty about this one.

 

[PlanetJosh]

I'm down around 6k in short term trades for the last year (all long.) It's not a bankrupting amount but will try to make it back in some more SAVA trading tomorrow. It's a matter of pride to get back to even. With the gyrations in SAVA lately I'm afraid my buys in it will be based mostly or all on hunches.

 

[FelixDeCat]

So me and the margin clerk are good now.

Oh stock market, I don't know how to quit you! 🙁

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Global food prices soar to 6-year high, UN agency says

I knew something was up. What we spend on 3-4 days worth of groceries now used to last us almost a week back in 2017-2018. I almost have to ignore the food bill now and just accept it for what it is. While this is likely a supply and demand issue: the fact is the populations are somehow absorbing these high costs. And now the world knows they can. Just like we've already been seeing this with electronics like phones and GPUs long before tariffs made them even more expensive, I don't expect food to become "cheap" or as it was ever again. "More expensive" is here to stay, imo.

I had this FIRE number in mind back in 2018... and now I'm not so sure. No one really seems all that aware of this. For example you could probably make all home appliances 50% more expensive over the course of 1-2 years and nobody would really care or notice. Same deal with energy and gas. People might complain at first, but it would quickly normalize. What was once $40K/year of living expenses prior to the pandemic will probably be $60K/year soon. It's not going to be the rent or mortgage, it's going to be the literally everything else 20-50% more expensive then it used to be.

This is part of why I have no clue where to truly price the current market. Is it really inflated or is it just foreshadowing/adjusting for what's coming?

 

[dasherHampton]

SRNE just exploded upward 🙂

I really wanted to buy 1000 more shares when it was still under $15 but my inner voice kept saying "You are going to piss off the stock market Gods right good one of these days if you keep going to the well like that".

 

[dasherHampton]

So me and the margin clerk are good now.

Oh stock market, I don't know how to quit you! 🙁

I got put in the penalty box for 3 months once for a free ride trade.

It was probably the best thing that ever could have happened to me. Those three months were the first time I seriously explored options and saw the potential. Who knew it would take this long for it to really click for me?

 

[dasherHampton]

Man CRSR just won't slow down. Why does that make me nervous?

It would cost under 50% to buy them back at this point.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Global food prices soar to 6-year high, UN agency says

I knew something was up. What we spend on 3-4 days worth of groceries now used to last us almost a week back in 2017-2018. I almost have to ignore the food bill now and just accept it for what it is. While this is likely a supply and demand issue: the fact is the populations are somehow absorbing these high costs. And now the world knows they can. Just like we've already been seeing this with electronics like phones and GPUs long before tariffs made them even more expensive, I don't expect food to become "cheap" or as it was ever again. "More expensive" is here to stay, imo.

I had this FIRE number in mind back in 2018... and now I'm not so sure. No one really seems all that aware of this. For example you could probably make all home appliances 50% more expensive over the course of 1-2 years and nobody would really care or notice. Same deal with energy and gas. People might complain at first, but it would quickly normalize. What was once $40K/year of living expenses prior to the pandemic will probably be $60K/year soon. It's not going to be the rent or mortgage, it's going to be the literally everything else 20-50% more expensive then it used to be.

This is part of why I have no clue where to truly price the current market. Is it really inflated or is it just foreshadowing/adjusting for what's coming?

Modern economists, the Fed and big deficit spending politicians love to tout there is low to no inflation......yet inflation is everywhere and "in your face":

1. Gas prices rising sharply
2. Food prices going up and not looking back.
3. All cryptos (like Bitcoin....BITCOIN!) ...has been on a tear
4. Home prices have more than doubled in hot markets over the last 7 years.
5. All major averages are up bigly over the last 24 months.
6. Even clothing is up. I was looking for a pair of Levi's the other day and could not believe the average price now is $65-80 each. I remember $35!


The Fed printing trillions, the government handing it to anyone with a pulse, and politicians proposing massive regular payments....

...no inflation bro....you are imagining things....

Now move along and don't talk about inflation - or the feds may declare you an extremist. 😱

 

[PlanetJosh]

TYME went up almost 14% in after hours today (Monday) to close after hours at $2.99. That's in addition to going up over 10% at the regular close. It's a news based rise, a $100 million stock offering closed today for the medical drug company. The offering was made last week which caused it to double on Feb 3 which I missed as I missed today's gain.

I did make $250 in a half hour day trade on it last Friday. Should've left it in through today but didn't. Was basically luck I sold when I did at $2.46 to make that modest profit because it went down for the rest of Friday.

Anyway the stock went down after Feb 3. And then when the deal closed today (Feb 8) it got the 24% gain including after hours. This isn't advice to invest in it. It's just another interesting Yahoo Finance news article among other news sources on the same story.

edit - I'm thinking about buying it tomorrow but that doesn't mean any one else should. It's a penny stock. The previous sentence can be bolded and be an appropriate reply to this post. Even so the stock is tempting (to me.) I can only pray it goes up right after I buy, then if it sinks I have some leeway to get out at even or only a small loss.

 

[ponyo]

TLRY/APHA are moving up nicely. Sucks I'm only holding 1,500 shares of APHA. Those APHA $10 Jan 2022 calls I missed hurt. 🙁. I knew they were great deal at $3.3 when the stock was trading around $10. I let pennies get in the way of multi-bagger. Lesson for next time.

 

[echo4747]

Modern economists, the Fed and big deficit spending politicians love to tout there is low to no inflation......yet inflation is everywhere and "in your face":

1. Gas prices rising sharply
2. Food prices going up and not looking back.
3. All cryptos (like Bitcoin....BITCOIN!) ...has been on a tear
4. Home prices have more than doubled in hot markets over the last 7 years.
5. All major averages are up bigly over the last 24 months.
6. Even clothing is up. I was looking for a pair of Levi's the other day and could not believe the average price now is $65-80 each. I remember $35!


The Fed printing trillions, the government handing it to anyone with a pulse, and politicians proposing massive regular payments....

...no inflation bro....you are imagining things....

Now move along and don't talk about inflation - or the feds may declare you an extremist. 😱

Ive noticed this as well.. Its tough watching the buying power of your savings deteriorate. Both precious metals and bitcoin scare me.. I-bond returns dont keep up with what I think true inflation rate is.

 

[Svnla]

After they are done with Jack Ma and Alibaba, now they are after Tesla and Elon. Gonna to "borrow" and "transfer" some of the tech, eh? Just ask the Germans and Japanese about those high speed railroads.

Elon Musk's love-in with China may be over as regulators go after Tesla

Elon Musk's Tesla spent the last couple of years trying to win over China in a bid to conquer the world's largest car market. Now the company risks upsetting Beijing's powerful regulators.

www.cnn.com

.

 

[ponyo]

Modern economists, the Fed and big deficit spending politicians love to tout there is low to no inflation......yet inflation is everywhere and "in your face":

1. Gas prices rising sharply
2. Food prices going up and not looking back.
3. All cryptos (like Bitcoin....BITCOIN!) ...has been on a tear
4. Home prices have more than doubled in hot markets over the last 7 years.
5. All major averages are up bigly over the last 24 months.
6. Even clothing is up. I was looking for a pair of Levi's the other day and could not believe the average price now is $65-80 each. I remember $35!


The Fed printing trillions, the government handing it to anyone with a pulse, and politicians proposing massive regular payments....

...no inflation bro....you are imagining things....

Now move along and don't talk about inflation - or the feds may declare you an extremist. 😱

1. Gas prices are still cheap. Like $2 gallon where I live.
2. Food prices are still cheap. Not seeing anything too worrying. Compared to the rest of the world, Americans pay very little for food relative to our income.
3. Cryptos are on a tear. Natural price discovery.
4. Home prices are up. Again, natural price discovery.
5. Stocks are up. Price discovery.
6. Clothing prices are up? You're old. Why don you care about fashion? I buy my clothes from Costco and clothing prices are still dirt cheap. I paid like $8 pair for my Urban Star jeans at Costco on clearance. I bought like 10 pairs because I liked it so much. $80 for 10 pairs of jeans which will last me forever as long as I don't gain too much weight. Seriously, Kirkland blue jeans are like $15 everyday price. If you're paying $65-$80 each for jeans, that's your problem and not the market. Call it stupid tax or luxury tax.

 

[jpiniero]

1. Gas prices are still cheap. Like $2 gallon where I live.
2. Food prices are still cheap. Not seeing anything too worrying. Compared to the rest of the world, Americans pay very little for food relative to our income.
3. Cryptos are on a tear. Natural price discovery.
4. Home prices are up. Again, natural price discovery.
5. Stocks are up. Price discovery.

I've noticed that food prices have started to go up. That's a relatively new development.

The other four... the low rates and the stimulus are having a huge impact. Even gas when you consider the low demand right now. Anything comparable to 2019 demand and it could easily hit $80 or more.

 

[PlanetJosh]

Well I haven't bought any TYME this morning. Maybe it already had it's main rise on news of the stock offering deal closing. So still waiting to see when to buy today. It is up over 20% today but it pulled back from a high a few minutes ago.

 

[ponyo]

I've noticed that food prices have started to go up. That's a relatively new development.

The other four... the low rates and the stimulus are having a huge impact. Even gas when you consider the low demand right now. Anything comparable to 2019 demand and it could easily hit $80 or more.

I'm not seeing big food prices increases you guys are seeing. And I grocery shop a lot. Meat, dairy, seafood, produce, fruit prices are all pretty stable. There will always be pockets of price spikes because of poor crop or natural disasters but that's normal and happens all the time. Now, if you're buying all processed shit, maybe that's where the increases are and I'm missing it because I actually cook and make food from scratch.

 

[FelixDeCat]

TLRY/APHA are moving up nicely. Sucks I'm only holding 1,500 shares of APHA. Those APHA $10 Jan 2022 calls I missed hurt. 🙁. I knew they were great deal at $3.3 when the stock was trading around $10. I let pennies get in the way of multi-bagger. Lesson for next time.

Tilray has outperformed Apha even though they are the same. I wonder after the merger is complete if the company will continue to see outstanding gains.

 

[zinfamous]

CCIV was up 15% today on hopes of a merger with Lucid Motors (luxury EV vehicles).

As far as I know, the CEO of Lucid simply refused to confirm or deny whether or not CCIV and Lucid were actively negotiating, and that was enough to stimulate a 15% boost.

I remember the ticker symbol because it looks like a Roman numeral but every time I think about checking it out I always think "Eh, its probably too late to get in".

It's almost never too late to get in on a stock that's trending upward. But I'm maxed out. The SAVA thing put me up against it. Again.

You know, I had just learned about SPACs about this same time last week, randomly clicking on some garbage click bait, also about CCIV and Lucid. I can't say that I understand exactly how this works...but...

I also just learned a few days ago that VGAC will be taking 23&Me public some time in the next quarter. (from a customer email, forwarded to me). This is a multi-billions dollars industry for years to come, though one that is going to be heavily influenced by regulation and how such data can be used and for what purposes, but I don't think anyone is better poised than 23&Me in terms of where that industry is going to be (They were founded on the understanding of medical and basic research purposes; Ancestry just kinda limped in to it with their "You guys want to know who your daddy is, but also with science?" business model).

Anyway, how does this whole thing work? Right now, you simply buy whatever shares of VGAC, they eventually become shares of ME after the "merger," and it's a straight up swap? Is there some dilution or devaluation, maybe some sort of yet-unknown, undisclosed IPO-like price when that happens? It's not an IPO, and it's not like someone is buying someone else, so they aren't "purchasing" shares of the other company at a set price, right?

I guess I don't know enough about the history of these sort of arrangements and honestly...it all just sounds sketchy to me. But, I like that Branson is involved in a serious way.

 

[ponyo]

Tilray has outperformed Apha even though they are the same. I wonder after the merger is complete if the company will continue to see outstanding gains.

That's because you have the merger arb dudes buying Tilray and shorting equal portion amount of Apha to capture the arbitrage difference. Happens with every merger deal until the deal closes. Same thing happens when company issues convertibles. Arb dudes will buy the convertibles and short the underlying stock to capture the spread.

 

[FelixDeCat]

1. Gas prices are still cheap. Like $2 gallon where I live.
2. Food prices are still cheap. Not seeing anything too worrying. Compared to the rest of the world, Americans pay very little for food relative to our income.
3. Cryptos are on a tear. Natural price discovery.
4. Home prices are up. Again, natural price discovery.
5. Stocks are up. Price discovery.
6. Clothing prices are up? You're old. Why don you care about fashion? I buy my clothes from Costco and clothing prices are still dirt cheap. I paid like $8 pair for my Urban Star jeans at Costco on clearance. I bought like 10 pairs because I liked it so much. $80 for 10 pairs of jeans which will last me forever as long as I don't gain too much weight. Seriously, Kirkland blue jeans are like $15 everyday price. If you're paying $65-$80 each for jeans, that's your problem and not the market. Call it stupid tax or luxury tax.

You can dismiss inflation but ignore it at your peril.

I was reading that the massive rise in food prices are due to too much of the world's farmland being gobbled up by corporations, hedgefunds and billionaires who are taking farm subsidies while at the same time controlling supply to increase commodity prices.

Conspiracy theory? I can't say for certain.

But all this free money the government is printing is creating asset bubbles the world over.

 

[zinfamous]

1. Gas prices are still cheap. Like $2 gallon where I live.
2. Food prices are still cheap. Not seeing anything too worrying. Compared to the rest of the world, Americans pay very little for food relative to our income.
3. Cryptos are on a tear. Natural price discovery.
4. Home prices are up. Again, natural price discovery.
5. Stocks are up. Price discovery.
6. Clothing prices are up? You're old. Why don you care about fashion? I buy my clothes from Costco and clothing prices are still dirt cheap. I paid like $8 pair for my Urban Star jeans at Costco on clearance. I bought like 10 pairs because I liked it so much. $80 for 10 pairs of jeans which will last me forever as long as I don't gain too much weight. Seriously, Kirkland blue jeans are like $15 everyday price. If you're paying $65-$80 each for jeans, that's your problem and not the market. Call it stupid tax or luxury tax.

...you should buy your wife's clothes at Costco. 😀

by the way, beef prices have been kinda bonkers all last year. You haven't noticed that?

 

[ponyo]

...you should buy your wife's clothes at Costco. 😀

by the way, beef prices have been kinda bonkers all last year. You haven't noticed that?

My wife buys some of her clothes from Costco. 🙂. We're not snobs.

Beef prices went crazy because of the covid and meat packing plants shutdown. But things are back to normal and beef prices are cheaper than ever. Prime brisket is like $2.49 /lb right now. I know my food prices because I grocery shop myself. I enjoy it.

 

[echo4747]

...you should buy your wife's clothes at Costco. 😀

by the way, beef prices have been kinda bonkers all last year. You haven't noticed that?

yes ... here (western NY) black angus strip steaks were often 7.99lb now 8.99lb. Ground beef was 1.99lb now over 3.00/lb otoh.. boneless skinless chicken breast often on sale at 1.49-69/lb now 1.99/lb

 

[Svnla]

I went to shop groceries a few days ago and this is what I saw. Note these were on sale prices.

Chicken and eggs - Breasts - $0.99/lbs. and dozen eggs - $0.80/pack = same price
Pork loins - $1/lb. = same price
Ground beef - $2/lb. = same price
Cilantros - $0.50/pack = same price
Cabbage - $0.60/lb. = higher price, was $0.45/lb.
Tomatoes - $1/lb. = same price
OJ juice - $2/half gallon = higher price, was $1.80
Gasoline - $2.05/gallon = higher price, was $1.90

Can't afford good beef. Too expensive for now.