Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

[brianmanahan]

as hot as everything seems, i'm trying to decide if i should take some serious money off the table

not like there's anything else decent to put it in right now. bond yields are tiny and property values are huge.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Its to good to be true. I dont know man, somehow the government is going to screw the little guy when they see many making bank.

Already happening. It's the inflation of everything. Every time I buy groceries now I'm like, "how the **** is it this expensive for 3 days worth of food?!". I swear it was maybe only 2 years ago that same amount covered nearly a week of food. Even Costco orders I'm like, "this is not cheap at all - it just feels like what was once a normal price". Electronics are also there: CPUs and GPUs cost stupid amounts of money for some time compared to 5-10 years ago. Same with phones. But hey, gas is still about the same so real inflation is only 2% right?

People are so focused on assets like homes they aren't paying attention to all the little things. And that's how it's going to get everyone. The already wealthy will not be immune this time around, but they'll be able to easily weather it. Paying $200 or $400 for something when you've got millions: it doesn't really matter. The best scenario moving forward is a stock market that kind of stagnates for a bit so the wealthy can enjoy their gains, while wages rise rapidly so everyone else has a few years to play some "catch up", but it unfortunately can't work like that in our environment: big always takes from little.

Right now I'm trying to ensure my son will not have to deal with whatever economic fallout Generation Alpha has to deal with in 20-30 years. Hopefully things turn around but I foresee the following: the wealth elites, the current upper middle class, and a socialist everyone else stuck on some kind of UBI unable to move up due to the inflation of everything. And whatever anyone is born into now is where they'll likely remain.

 

[KB]

Anything heavily shorted seems to be kicking butt. Bought some MAC at 10, and its been way up. Not a good time to be a short.

On GME, if the shorts can hold long enough, they might get some relief. Gamestop would be stupid not to issue new shares at these prices. Then use those proceeds to buy some assets that will actually make money after consoles go download only. It looks like the diamond handers are alrighty faltering a bit. It went up to $150, now down 50% from those levels.

It sure is fun to watch.

 

[dasherHampton]

Its to good to be true. I dont know man, somehow the government is going to screw the little guy when they see many making bank.

I would love to know a stat on the number of new millionaires created last year.

Biden wants to double the capital gains from 20% to 40%. As far as I know it's only for people who make more than a million a year but anyone who thinks it's going to stop there might be fooling themselves.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Any thoughts on CRSR? I like it's chart from a technical play. It looks it has formed a strong base at current levels. Earnings are coming up on the 9th. Given it's oscillations lately, I'll be DCAing up until then.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Biden wants to double the capital gains from 20% to 40%. As far as I know it's only for people who make more than a million a year but anyone who thinks it's going to stop there might be fooling themselves.

If Biden does that I hope it actually grandfathers in current LT positions so that they are exempt from that.

Now Yellen on the other hand and her completely stupid idea of taxing unrealized gains... that's an investment, game over, economy over idea for sure.

 

[Torn Mind]

What do you guys think of Costco and Ulta Beauty as stocks?

 

[dasherHampton]

If Biden does that I hope it actually grandfathers in current LT positions so that they are exempt from that.

Now Yellen on the other hand and her completely stupid idea of taxing unrealized gains... that's an investment, game over, economy over idea for sure.

Yeah, I've read about that a little as well. I don't understand the specifics.

So if you buy a stock at $150 and it has a great year, rising to $180, you'd pay tax on the $30 gain even if you don't sell? What if the stock then tanks the next year, falling to $120? Wouldn't there have to be a commensurate tax break on the $60 loss if you don't sell as well?

So we're talking zero sum game here. Or am I misunderstanding?

 

[dasherHampton]

Man, if EPD doesn't stop falling I'm going to right back in a margin call.

WTF.

 

[ponyo]

Anything heavily shorted seems to be kicking butt. Bought some MAC at 10, and its been way up. Not a good time to be a short.

On GME, if the shorts can hold long enough, they might get some relief. Gamestop would be stupid not to issue new shares at these prices. Then use those proceeds to buy some assets that will actually make money after consoles go download only. It looks like the diamond handers are alrighty faltering a bit. It went up to $150, now down 50% from those levels.

It sure is fun to watch.

Hold long enough? Clock is ticking everyday for GME shorts. Their entire short thesis is busted. The shorts thought GME was going the way of Blockbuster and going to bankrupt. They would've been right in normal times. But current environment is not normal. GME will not go bankrupt. Not anytime soon. So if your short thesis is busted, you're supposed to cover and abandon the trade if you're a trader. Take your loss like a man and move on. Except it's become personal for the dumb GME shorts.

GME will definitely do public secondary offering. And the stock will probably fall initially on the news. But that's bear trap. Secondary is good news for GME. They can issue more shares and dilute 10-20% of current shareholders and completely wipe out their $500 million debt. And they could even have enough cash left over for a war chest depending on how many shares they sell and the price. Longterm GME is going down. But short term, shorts have already lost the war. Shorts who don't acknowledge the new reality are completely clueless and stupid and deserve to lose everything.

 

[ponyo]

as hot as everything seems, i'm trying to decide if i should take some serious money off the table

not like there's anything else decent to put it in right now. bond yields are tiny and property values are huge.

I'm ok with the market going up or down. I'm sitting on millions in cash and but also have millions in stock exposure. I'm hedged somewhat with options and have plenty of cash to take advantage of any major selloff. But I'm not expecting any big selloff near term. Market is still super strong and these pocket bubbles do not concern me much. You guys look at action in GME and think it's insane. But to me, it's perfectly rational. The actions I saw during last summer was lot more crazy to me. When I saw bankrupt stock like Hertz mooning like it did along with fraud stock like Luckin Coffee after the accounting fraud was exposed and stock was crushed. Plus the whole gamma squeeze by SoftBank with their massive call option buying. That stuff was ridiculous and concerning.

 

[Train]

But hey, gas is still about the same so real inflation is only 2% right?

IMHO, cheap gas has been the only thing propping the dollar up this past decade.

Best to take advantage of ridiculously cheap mortgage rates, hedge against inflation. I used to be the "pay it down faster, get some equity" mindset, but with rates this low, and factoring in the tax deduction, it's better to just pay the minimum and put the money elsewhere. Hell, even BOND is paying a better dividend than what I'd get by paying my house down.

 

[FelixDeCat]

It seems like the current set of regulations and business climate has kept things very stable, with only COVID causing the disruption.

Look, everybody knows this is government stimulus and Fed induced market bubble.

We are in a LALA land environment for stocks, RE, gold, cryptos, etc.

Since there is nothing you can do about it, may as well play along.

But please, don't YOLO with more than you can afford to lose. Very dangerous times when everyone automatically assumes they make money.

 

[ponyo]

IMHO, cheap gas has been the only thing propping the dollar up this past decade.

Best to take advantage of ridiculously cheap mortgage rates, hedge against inflation. I used to be the "pay it down faster, get some equity" mindset, but with rates this low, and factoring in the tax deduction, it's better to just pay the minimum and put the money elsewhere. Hell, even BOND is paying a better dividend than what I'd get by paying my house down.

I've always been in the camp of pay off your mortgage and debt as fast as possible. Even today with low rates, I still think people should pay off their mortgage aggressively if they can. It's weird because I always had high risk tolerance for investments and taking risks but yet hated and despised debt. It's like I'm walking contradiction.

 

[Svnla]

LOL @ the craziness of Game Stop. Goodness. So much for all the financial analysis and such. Don't let me start with all of the wild swings of cryptos.

Look, everybody knows this is government stimulus and Fed induced market bubble.

We are in a LALA land environment for stocks, RE, gold, cryptos, etc.

Since there is nothing you can do about it, may as well play along.

But please, don't YOLO with more than you can afford to lose. Very dangerous times when everyone automatically assumes they make money.

Yup. Nothing us ordinary folks can do about it. I am worry about hyperinflation/much weaker dollars because of all the years and years of (D + R) excessive spending. The chicken will come home to roost sooner than later.

I have some decent money set aside on numerous FDIC insured reward checking and savings account and I am not sure what to do with them to fight the incoming storms. Buy a house? Gold? Crypto? Weeds????? WWJD?

 

[FelixDeCat]

1900 SAVA $13.04 (system showing 13.68 for some reason)

Now almost $16. Sweet baby Jesus go to $20. Or $50.

 

[ponyo]

Now almost $16. Sweet baby Jesus go to $20. Or $50.

What? You haven't sold yet? What happened to your paper hands?

 

[njdevilsfan87]

IMHO, cheap gas has been the only thing propping the dollar up this past decade.

Best to take advantage of ridiculously cheap mortgage rates, hedge against inflation. I used to be the "pay it down faster, get some equity" mindset, but with rates this low, and factoring in the tax deduction, it's better to just pay the minimum and put the money elsewhere. Hell, even BOND is paying a better dividend than what I'd get by paying my house down.

I've already done that and have a loan at 2.75% since this past August. I'm hedged against asset inflation there, but I don't expect anything too crazy with home prices: in fact I expect them to continue to underperform things like stocks, crypto, etc.

The issue I see is that it's not necessarily assets like houses that will continue to inflate at crazy rates. It's the "everything else" that everyone can still afford day-to-day. That can be stretched quite a bit because people can cut back: stop buying high quality food or organic, reduce your data plan, stop wasting electricity and water, have only one streaming service, etc. And that's why I feel like my FI/FIRE numbers keep getting pushed back. I might even have to start practicing some of these things myself now and reduce expenses as much as possible.

Once that is stretched as much as possible you're basically at the 3 classes I mentioned: wealthy elites, upper middle class, and the "poor socialist" class. The government will provide UBI to that class to keep everyone happy... for a while. The wealthy elites will continue to fly their private jets, the upper middle class will live comfortable lives, and the "poor socialists" will no longer have to worry about making rent anymore. So things will be ok for a while (maybe a generation or two) until the 90% are tired of being stuck in their "poor socialist" tier, and that's where things will really unravel.

So what does that have to do with right now? You get ahead of all of this as much as possible and the only way to do that is to either 1) take a low rate mortgage as you mentioned and 2) buy stonks to and be on the upper-half of the K-shaped recovery.

 

[brianmanahan]

What? You haven't sold yet? What happened to your paper hands?

felix all about those 💎🙌

 

[brianmanahan]

I'm ok with the market going up or down. I'm sitting on millions in cash and but also have millions in stock exposure.

i've got way less in cash/bonds than i do in stock exposure

but i could live off the cash for a few years so maybe i just stick with what i've got

 

[ponyo]

https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/01...nvesting-2-72b-into-melvin-capital-management

lol. I love it! The rich short boys who are trapped in GME have called in the big guns and major reinforcement of their rich buddies to help them fight WSB and bail them out. Melvin Capital is the hedge fund that's massively short GME and getting killed. Gabriel Polkin runs Melvin Capital and used to work for Steven Cohen who runs Point72 hedge fund. Steven Cohen is big name in the hedge fund world and corrupt as hell. And Citadel is the largest market makers and have a deal with Robinhood to front run all retail orders and corrupt as hell too. Citadel as market maker have the unique ability given by the SEC to do unlimited naked shorting of GME or any stock. Citadel can literally just print GME shares out of thin air as market maker and suffocate any stock they want with endless sell orders. So the rich boys club and the evil empire have joined forces to put down the WSB and the poor attempted rebellion. Not very surprising but love the market drama.

 

[Tweak155]

https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/01...nvesting-2-72b-into-melvin-capital-management

lol. I love it! The rich short boys who are trapped in GME have called in the big guns and major reinforcement of their rich buddies to help them fight WSB and bail them out. Melvin Capital is the hedge fund that's massively short GME and getting killed. Gabriel Polkin runs Melvin Capital and used to work for Steven Cohen who runs Point72 hedge fund. Steven Cohen is big name in the hedge fund world and corrupt as hell. And Citadel is the largest market makers and have a deal with Robinhood to front run all retail orders and corrupt as hell too. Citadel as market maker have the unique ability given by the SEC to do unlimited naked shorting of GME or any stock. Citadel can literally just print GME shares out of thin air as market maker and suffocate any stock they want with endless sell orders. So the rich boys club and the evil empire have joined forces to put down the WSB and the poor attempted rebellion. Not very surprising but love the market drama.

Nice summary, I've been following this ever since I first posted about the day $GME popped on $MSFT partnership announcement in the 2020 stock market thread. As a newbie to the stock market, it's been fun to follow. Starting to see more clearly how some of this stuff works, building up my trading & investment knowledge slowly.

I did day trade $GME last year, but didn't mess with it much since I didn't understand it fully. I try to avoid things I don't feel I have at least 80-90% confidence in understanding just what exactly is driving the price action (is it possible to ever know 100% without getting the data the big guys get?).

I get what is going on with $GME a lot better now, but I was well too late to enter any position I was willing to hold.

 

[Scarpozzi]

I've always been in the camp of pay off your mortgage and debt as fast as possible. Even today with low rates, I still think people should pay off their mortgage aggressively if they can. It's weird because I always had high risk tolerance for investments and taking risks but yet hated and despised debt. It's like I'm walking contradiction.

I'm in that same camp. Because we didn't travel much the past year and only took vacations we already prepaid, we saved a lot of money. I'm finally getting my mortgage down and tripling up on payments to wipe it out this calendar year if all goes to plan. I'm just waiting for my W2 so I can calculate my tax return and know how much extra I get to throw on .

After that, I'm going to be rolling more into stocks and retirement savings, though I'm already putting 12% in annually. I've got 25 years before I hit retirement age unless you can give me some decent stock tips next year when I'm ready to really push the needle on my investments.

 

[dasherHampton]

I just don't understand myself sometimes.

I've been waiting for weeks for this particular one to see if RFE would rise before the ex. dividend date (Thursday) and push the calls higher. But then PFE spiked a little on Friday and then pulled back slightly and I decided to sell 38s for March. And now look at it.

What is my deal? I couldn't wait ONE more weekend, after all of that patience I showed? Am I schizophrenic? No, I can't be. Or maybe I am. No, that's silly. Shut up.

But all is not lost. The calls for later on are rising. I'll have to buy them back tomorrow morning and extend 40s out to June or July.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Nm