Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[dasherHampton]

Im glad we agree. The survivors have no choice but to adapt, and theyve done a bang up job. Life will run its course and only the strongest will survive financially either through adaptation or changing job roles.

We may never go back to the way we were despite peoples desire to do so. Its sad if you ask me, but what choice do survivors have? And government checks only delay the inevitable - bankruptcy. We cant buy our way out of this.

But the government wont listen to me. They will continue to dilute existing currency holders into oblivion like they always have no matter who is in office.

It's interesting, isn't it, how hard it is to tell anymore who's full of shit?

For most of my 9 years in the market it was pretty easy.

 

[ponyo]

Crazy trading volumes for NIO and XPEV. NIO already traded over 55 million shares in the first 10 minutes. XPEV over 16 million shares. I think yesterday XPEV had over 150 million shares traded. FOMO. This is not just Robinhood and retail that's driving the huge trading volumes each day. Some big whales are playing in there. If you want to make big money, you have to learn how to ride the whales and the waves. Control your emotions and not get scared. Extremely important and very hard skill to acquire. It's easier said than done which is why so many people get shaken out and sell on the big dips. Scared money don't make big money.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The market can still be easy just do what you know. You've done pretty good shorting puts and calls. Ponyo has done well with his EV plays. Others have done well with AMD.

It looks like 2020s will be the Decade of the Hive. You have places where millions congregate and all agree on a particular company or theme. That place now is Reddit. Whether you agree or not, if money is going into a stock its hard to fight a tidal wave of money.

I traded NIO back when it was $15. If you had told me it would hit $50 this year because the Hive says they cant enough of it and only see growth from now on, I would not have believed you. Looking back now, I guess I should have bought 100 shares and just held them.

Despite what the Hive says, does or wants, I will continue to express my opinion. Right now I think people are selling Tesla and chasing the smaller cap EV plays.

I have no position at the moment.

 

[FelixDeCat]

NIO intraday high $53, now $44 and falling hard.

edit : Notorious short Andy Left took at dump on NIOs head. Ill bet shareholders dismiss Andy.

EDIT 2: Stock continuing to fall now $41. Keep an eye out for falling objects!

 

[ponyo]

The market can still be easy just do what you know. You've done pretty good shorting puts and calls. Ponyo has done well with his EV plays. Others have done well with AMD.

It looks like 2020s will be the Decade of the Hive. You have places where millions congregate and all agree on a particular company or theme. That place now is Reddit. Whether you agree or not, if money is going into a stock its hard to fight a tidal wave of money.

I traded NIO back when it was $15. If you had told me it would hit $50 this year because the Hive says they cant enough of it and only see growth from now on, I would not have believed you. Looking back now, I guess I should have bought 100 shares and just held them.

Despite what the Hive says, does or wants, I will continue to express my opinion. Right now I think people are selling Tesla and chasing the smaller cap EV plays.

I have no position at the moment.

You always had the Hive. Smart money is actually dumb money. They just have more money than you because they were born into money. The thing about Wall Street and it's always been the case is that there's actually very little research and thinking that goes on. All the hedge funds and traders talk to each other and they all follow each others moves. And most Wall Street analysts are even dumber. If you ever read their research and listen to their interviews, it will be painfully obvious how clueless most are. It's really groupthink mentality on Wall Street. But you have to follow the money. You have some really smart people on Wall Street but tons of stupid people as well who got their cushy Wall Street jobs through their family connections and schools they went to because they were born into money.

With the growth of social media like Twitter and Reddit, you have hedge funds and others scanning places WallStreetBets and Robinhood to get idea on what retail is buying and playing. Wall Street and big media loves to shit on the small retail guys but I find many of the retail guys do better research and have way deeper and better understanding of companies and stocks they buy and trade.

It's amazing how Wall Street can still con people to give them money to actively manage when they underperform S&P 500 index every year. Either manage it yourself if you can do better than S&P 500 or just buy the index if you can't. But do not give these fools your hard-earned money to gamble. They are stupid. You should be able to lose your money just as well as the Wall Street Pro fools.

 

[ponyo]

NIO, over 574 million shares traded today.
XPEV, over 91 million shares traded today.
LI, over 168 million shares traded today.

These are Chinese ADR shares and not even American company stocks being traded in this huge volumes. NIO is the most popular of the three because it was the first Chinese EV listed on the US stock exchange and also probably because of Nio character from Matrix movies.

Robinhood and retail don't have nearly the influence or the buying power to trade this kind of number. And volume for NIO have been insane for the past couple of months. We the retail are literally ants compared to the whales that's responsible for these insane moves. Wall Street is a big casino and the big money control the narrative since they own all the big media outlets. Don't let them lie to you and tell you this is retail move. This is big money gambling at the casino. Their version of blackjack and poker. This is what they do with the money you give them. Gamble with your money.

 

[dasherHampton]

This value rotation is pretty crazy.

If this keeps up for the rest of the year almost everything I own will get called away (except for my small AAPL and TSLA holdings). If it keeps up until March it'll all be gone outside of my dividend portfolio.

I'll have to start over. Not that I'm complaining.

 

[FelixDeCat]

As predicted, now both candidates claim to have won. Even though only one lost the popular vote and the electoral college.

Thankfully the election was peaceful.

I wonder how hard the peaceful transfer of power will be. We have already had antifa attack the pro-Trump rally on Saturday.

 

[ponyo]

TESLA! TSLA! TSLA! Finally S&P 500. Will happen Dec 21 which is 5 weeks from now. Very strange as normally a company is added in 3-5 days. Never seen it stretch out this long. It's probably because S&P 500 index funds have to buy like gazillion shares of TSLA and they don't want TSLA stock price to go insane. But it's still going to go insane. TSLA is going to break the all time high.

I'm happy Tesla is finally joining the S&P 500 which was long overdue but I'm still pissed at the S&P committee. I was holding so many calls back in Sept. I would've made so much money. I'm still going to make lot of money but no where near I would've had back in Sept.

 

[ponyo]

Damn, I wish the S&P committee would've waited until next year. Now I'm going to have to decide if I want to sell into the addition frenzy and take more short term capital gains or risk the stock falling back down after the addition and losing some of my gains. It's going to be hard to sell when I have to give up ~50% of the gains to the taxman. Ugh.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Congrats on your Tesla investment!

 

[ponyo]

Another first. I've never seen this before on S&P 500 add. S&P is seeking feedback from the investment community whether TSLA should be added all at once or in two separate trenches. Wow! S&P is so scared TSLA stock price is going to rocket up because of the addition. And they should be since over $100 billion TSLA shares need to be bought by the index funds.

https://apnews.com/press-release/pr...and-averages-4bbf1c587c9b22918f8834031fa3c85a

NEW YORK, Nov. 16, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Tesla Inc. (NASD:TSLA) will be added to the S&P 500 effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, December 21 to coincide with the December quarterly rebalance. Due to the large size of the addition, S&P Dow Jones Indices is seeking feedback through a consultation to the investment community to determine if Tesla should be added all at once on the rebalance effective date or in two separate tranches ending on the rebalance effective date. Tesla will replace a S&P 500 company to be named in a separate press release closer to the rebalance effective date./QUOTE]

 

[ultimatebob]

Another first. I've never seen this before on S&P 500 add. S&P is seeking feedback from the investment community whether TSLA should be added all at once or in two separate trenches. Wow! S&P is so scared TSLA stock price is going to rocket up because of the addition. And they should be since over $100 billion TSLA shares need to be bought by the index funds.

https://apnews.com/press-release/pr...and-averages-4bbf1c587c9b22918f8834031fa3c85a

Well... that good, right? My TSLA goes up, as does the S&P 500 index fund money in my retirement fund. Sounds like a win-win to me

 

[ponyo]

Well... that good, right? My TSLA goes up, as does the S&P 500 index fund money in my retirement fund. Sounds like a win-win to me

S&P is asking fund managers if they should add 50% of TSLA on Dec 14 and the remaining 50% on Dec 21. Or 25%, 75%. Or 33%, 67%. etc. Or just 100% on Dec 21. They're asking this because the S&P 500 index funds will need to buy around $51 billion in TSLA shares or about 15% of TSLA total float. Another $74 billion in TSLA shares or about 20% of TSLA float could be bought by funds that track and tries to beat and outperform the S&P 500. Probably some of competing funds from the 2nd category probably own some TSLA shares already so that $74 billion is doubtful. But let's say another $50 billion out of the $74 billion competing funds choose to buy it too in hopes of beating the performance of the S&P 500. So if you add both groups, that's about $100 billion TSLA shares that have to be bought. Or about 30% of Tesla float. So effectively, minimum 15% of the TSLA float will be permanently removed from trading and likely around 15% additional float will be removed by the funds that try to beat the S&P 500. This is a huge deal.

So short term, TSLA is going up. S&P 500 index funds will likely buy TSLA near or at the all time high price. So S&P 500 might lose in the short run because TSLA price will likely fall some once the massive buying pressure disappears. But over the long term, TSLA is headed higher because TSLA is still a baby and S&P 500 index funds will benefit from having TSLA in the index. TSLA will power S&P 500 growth over this and next decades as TSLA grows. So it will be win-win in the end for everyone.

 

[echo4747]

S&P is asking fund managers if they should add 50% of TSLA on Dec 14 and the remaining 50% on Dec 21. Or 25%, 75%. Or 33%, 67%. etc. Or just 100% on Dec 21. They're asking this because the S&P 500 index funds will need to buy around $51 billion in TSLA shares or about 15% of TSLA total float. Another $74 billion in TSLA shares or about 20% of TSLA float could be bought by funds that track and tries to beat and outperform the S&P 500. Probably some of competing funds from the 2nd category probably own some TSLA shares already so that $74 billion is doubtful. But let's say another $50 billion out of the $74 billion competing funds choose to buy it too in hopes of beating the performance of the S&P 500. So if you add both groups, that's about $100 billion TSLA shares that have to be bought. Or about 30% of Tesla float. So effectively, minimum 15% of the TSLA float will be permanently removed from trading and likely around 15% additional float will be removed by the funds that try to beat the S&P 500. This is a huge deal.

So short term, TSLA is going up. S&P 500 index funds will likely buy TSLA near or at the all time high price. So S&P 500 might lose in the short run because TSLA price will likely fall some once the massive buying pressure disappears. But over the long term, TSLA is headed higher because TSLA is still a baby and S&P 500 index funds will benefit from having TSLA in the index. TSLA will power S&P 500 growth over this and next decades as TSLA grows. So it will be win-win in the end for everyone.

On Nov12 I purchased 60 shares @$411.00 with the idea of holding this long term. This morning i see its $462 and change premarket. Very tempted to pocket a little quick $$ . I still think it a great long term investment and would like to buy it back. Aside from the higher tax rate on short term gains, are there any other ramifications? iirc isnt there some number of days one needs to wait before purchasing again?

 

[Tweak155]

On Nov12 I purchased 60 shares @$411.00 with the idea of holding this long term. This morning i see its $462 and change premarket. Very tempted to pocket a little quick $$ . I still think it a great long term investment and would like to buy it back. Aside from the higher tax rate on short term gains, are there any other ramifications? iirc isnt there some number of days one needs to wait before purchasing again?

Nope, as long as you have cleared funds you can buy again. There are more rules to consider if you're taking a loss, but in this case that won't be a problem for you

 

[echo4747]

While Elon is home w/covid.. I bet he has a couple billion reasons to feel a bit better

 

[ponyo]

On Nov12 I purchased 60 shares @$411.00 with the idea of holding this long term. This morning i see its $462 and change premarket. Very tempted to pocket a little quick $$ . I still think it a great long term investment and would like to buy it back. Aside from the higher tax rate on short term gains, are there any other ramifications? iirc isnt there some number of days one needs to wait before purchasing again?

Short term gains are taxed at your ordinary tax rate which can be 0% all the way up to 37%. Anything over $622,050 for married joint filling is taxed at 37%. Plus you have to pay whatever the rate your state charges and another 3.8% Medicare tax on if your capital gains is over $250,000.

You can buy and sell as many times as you want. No limit. But there are rules like wash-rule for taking losses so you only have to be concerned if you have a loss.

While Elon is home w/covid.. I bet he has a couple billion reasons to feel a bit better

It's not about the money for Elon other than the money will help fund his dream of colonizing Mars. S&P 500 addition is just acknowledgment of the tremendous accomplishments of Elon and the Tesla team the past decade. Elon and Tesla basically made and took EV/clean energy from being nerdy and something that would never work into now commonly accepted as the future and almost mainstream hip and cool. I was one of the early doubters of Tesla and thought the idea of EV being mainstream was crazy and stupid. I was 99% sure Tesla would fail and go bankrupt. But here we are today, against all odds and all the doubters and haters, Tesla is thriving and about to change the world and history. For me, I was waiting for this S&P 500 moment for the past 1.5 years. I can only imagine how long Elon dreamed and waited. So I'm so happy for Elon and all Tesla shareholders.

SpaceX launches 4 people to the Space Station, Tesla gets added to S&P 500, and Elon is at home with Covid-19. About sums up 2020. What a wacky year!

 

[echo4747]

since Tesla is now being added to the S&P .. some corporation ( who?) needs to get bumped. Will this company now get oversold? leading to a possible buying opportunity?

 

[ponyo]

since Tesla is now being added to the S&P .. some corporation ( who?) needs to get bumped. Will this company now get oversold? leading to a possible buying opportunity?

People do trade the company that's being kicked out. Usually, that stock will fall as S&P 500 index funds all sell that stock that's kicked out. So you're correct deletion will have opposite effect as addition. Some people game and trade that as well. But it's usually smaller company that gets the boot so the index effect is not as big. Tesla is just special case as it's the largest company ever to be admitted to the S&P 500 club without having been in the 400 or the 1,000 club. Just the massive size of Tesla is why the S&P people are so scared and taking these extraordinary precautions.

 

[zinfamous]

Throw in an egg roll with some duck sauce and you have a deal.

Seriously tho - did you buy some shares? You can hold them to kingdom come if you wish. I just think NIO and Xpeng have tremendous gains to absorb. No doubt the Robinhooders have put their lief savings in call options and are bragging to anyone who will listen..

yes, I bought them back on IPO day (Well, public one anyway.) I decided to go all-in on blindly trusting ponyo the sage because FOMO.

 

[zinfamous]

But the government wont listen to me.

Thank Vishnu.

 

[ponyo]

Sold some Nov 20 TSLA $550 covered calls for some fun hookers and blow money for this weekend.

 

[dasherHampton]

What the hell? I was checking one of my accounts for the first time today and immediately saw a bunch of shares of something called Viatris that I didn't buy.

I panicked because I thought my account had been taken over and was getting ready to call Schwab but it turns out I got them for owning Pfizer lol.

Sometimes its better to be lucky than good I guess.

 

[ponyo]

I read this fascinating post on the Reddit WSB. Definitely a legend and will probably inspire and bankrupt half of that sub as they try to do what he did. For 99% that tries to do what he did, they will go bankrupt. His risk tolerance is way higher than mine but his story spoke to me because I experienced everything that guy experienced. But his addiction and the high/lows is on another level because I never gambled everything on weeklies like this guy did time and time again. So lucky but he escaped. Pretty unbelievable story.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/jvh4s7