Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[s0me0nesmind1]

It's times like these that I will never understand wallstreet and trading.

I can't find a single reason why stocks would be up ~5% today.... Coronavirus hasn't gotten any better.

 

[K1052]

I would encourage anyone that's looking at the market today and thinking 'self, I think it's a good time to jump back in', to stop for a minute and bear in mind that we're just now starting to test for COV-19, and other countries are seeing rapidly expanding numbers of infected and dead. We're in no way, shape, or form, through this. I wouldn't be surprised to see another drop of 2k or more from the current 26k by tomorrow close.

Timing this is like trying to jump onto a moving roller coaster even if you're not really sure the track hasn't been knocked out up ahead. Extremely inadvisable.

 

[K1052]

It's times like these that I will never understand wallstreet and trading.

I can't find a single reason why stocks would be up ~5% today.... Coronavirus hasn't gotten any better.

Central bank action is assumed, analysts have convinced themselves (and others) there are deals to be had, and the general desire for the good times not to end.

Meanwhile shipping and manufacturing data point to huge problems, the entire travel/events sector is aflame, we are about to find hundred if not thousands of new US cases as testing rolls out more widely, and the US deaths are likely to start piling up. The pictures of cleaned out shelves at stores in my twitter feed are multiplying. The real economic slowdown outside the equities market is happening.

 

[ponyo]

It's times like these that I will never understand wallstreet and trading.

I can't find a single reason why stocks would be up ~5% today.... Coronavirus hasn't gotten any better.

It's because we shouldn't have sold off so heavily last week. Did you say something when we were selling off like 3-4% like everyday last week? Yes, the market should've gone down some last week. But to the extent it did in a single week? That was some pretty intense relentless selling towards the end of the week. And I've been around lot of selling over the years. Like I said last week, it felt like some extremely levered hedge funds were puking up stocks and there were lot of forced selling and selling at any cost. And when the forced selling goes away with PPT propping up the futures market, you have a recipe for vicious snap back rally. You can only step on the loaded spring so much until it uncorks and hit you right in the face. The dumb bears pressed too much and got their face smashed today. It doesn't mean we can't give some of this back tomorrow but the bears will be little more careful after today.

 

[FelixDeCat]

So I am at the doctors office right nowand you should see the precautions being taken.

Before you go in, you are prescreened with basic questions:

Have you returned from a foreign country in the last 45 days? Do you have a cough or a rash that covers a large area of your body. Do you have a fever? If so please place a face mask and gloves on and notify the nurse on duty. Have a seat in the designated room immediately.

 

[jpiniero]

It's times like these that I will never understand wallstreet and trading.

I can't find a single reason why stocks would be up ~5% today.... Coronavirus hasn't gotten any better.

The Fed and the PPT are going to do what they can to keep the bubble going. It's all they got.

 

[JEDI]

I would encourage anyone that's looking at the market today and thinking 'self, I think it's a good time to jump back in', to stop for a minute and bear in mind that we're just now starting to test for COV-19, and other countries are seeing rapidly expanding numbers of infected and dead. We're in no way, shape, or form, through this. I wouldn't be surprised to see another drop of 2k or more from the current 26k by tomorrow close.

the term is called dead cat bounce.

stocks will bounce up from a prolonged decline then fall below the point It bounced from.
you can make some serious $$$ tomorrow by buying at open and selling before the trajectory turns negative.

timing the peak of the bounce up is the trick...

 

[alcoholbob]

Economically the factory closures due to coronavirus are a supply shock, along with central bank easing, should accelerate inflation. I wouldn't buy index funds right now but it might not be a bad time to buy into gold (GLD/GLDM, GDX, etc), the recent dip is a good buying opportunity IMO.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Here are the near term risks:

1) Bernie sweeps Super Tuesday, market trades lower Wednesday.

2) The Fed does not cut this week OR it does cut by only.25% and waits for 3/18 meeting for the next move. Market trades lower in disappointment.

3) More companies lower guidance and earnings estimates. Visa warned after the close tonight. Market trades lower in response.

 

[ponyo]

TSLA is on a tear and powering up again. Coronavirus is no match for Tesla Bioweapon Defense Mode.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/putting-tesla-hepa-filter-and-bioweapon-defense-mode-to-the-test

Tesla to $1 trillion.

 

[FelixDeCat]

If markets pull back 35% or more you could see a prohibition on the short sale of stock, except to perform bonafide market making operations. This was first instituted after the stock market was closed for a week after the 9/11/01 terrorist attacks and trading resumed on September 17, 2001. Nobody could sell short stock on 9/17/2001.

The government also prohibited short sales of 1000 financial stocks for 30 days from Sept 2008 to October 2008. The net effect was:

"The Securities and Exchange Commission's ban on short selling, which sparked a series of similar bans around the globe, was intended to be a "time out" and "restore equilibrium to markets." By the time it expired Wednesday night, the general view was that it added to market confusion and didn't do much to halt the slide in financial stocks. " - WSJ 10/9/08

In 2007 the DOW hit an all time high of 13,264. The DOW lost 52% of its value and hit a low of 6,459 in March 2009.

For comparison sake, the QQQ would fall from $234 to $112 and the DOW falls from 29,568 to 14,488.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Bad start to the day. Fed just cut interest rates by a half point. Not a lot of wiggle room left if the markets don't fly again.

Does look like they're surging back up, I worry that it's all a crutch though, fed probably should have let it bottom out more over the next few days.

 

[K1052]

Nothing says "it's all under control" like an emergency 50bp cut. It might goose equities for a day or two but liquidity is not the fundamental economic problem we are facing.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Nothing says "it's all under control" like an emergency 50bp cut. It might goose equities for a day or two but liquidity is not the fundamental economic problem we are facing.

You might not even make it that long, DOW is already back down to open after a 400? point run-up. So basically someone just made a bunch of money and now we're back in the shit.

 

[K1052]

You might not even make it that long, DOW is already back down to open after a 400? point run-up. So basically someone just made a bunch of money and now we're back in the shit.

Aaaannnd it's gone.

 

[FelixDeCat]

NUGT/ gold on fire! TY Lord!

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Nothing says "it's all under control" like an emergency 50bp cut. It might goose equities for a day or two but liquidity is not the fundamental economic problem we are facing.

Being back above levels we only passed within 6 months ago isn't bad... it's like a second chance to save those retirement funds and/or shift to lower risk assets for now. I'm either selling my slightly green DCAs from last week either later today or tomorrow.

 

[ponyo]

lol at all the chicken little running around scared and predicting complete market collapse.

Relax. Chill. The world is not ending. Do you know how many different virus scares Asia had to deal with the last 20 years? Just because this is the first time virus scare is hitting Europe and the US doesn't mean the world is going to end. The market will recover and the strong will get stronger and while the weak gets weaker or die. That's just normal market.

At every major market downturn, there are new leaders that emerge. And it's not going to be FAANG this time. Their reign is over. I'm not saying all the FAANG companies won't keep doing well but it's time for new blood. All the money people received from selling their stocks last week in panic have to be reallocated to some other stocks. Once the panic dies down and people return to rational thinking, they will seek to redeploy those new capital. Follow the money. I'm betting lot of new money will flow to Tesla. TSLA will be the new market leader after this correction. Count on it.

 

[ponyo]

NUGT/ gold on fire! TY Lord!

You made me look. Meh. Gold is at ~$1,636. Yawn.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

lol at all the chicken little running around scared and predicting complete market collapse.

Relax. Chill. The world is not ending. Do you know how many different virus scares Asia had to deal with the last 20 years? Just because this is the first time virus scare is hitting Europe and the US doesn't mean the world is going to end. The market will recover and the strong will get stronger and while the weak gets weaker or die. That's just normal market.

At every major market downturn, there are new leaders that emerge. And it's not going to be FAANG this time. Their reign is over. I'm not saying all the FAANG companies won't keep doing well but it's time for new blood. All the money people received from selling their stocks last week in panic have to be reallocated to some other stocks. Once the panic dies down and people return to rational thinking, they will seek to redeploy those new capital. Follow the money. I'm betting lot of new money will flow to Tesla. TSLA will be the new market leader after this correction. Count on it.

Yes, but people have been predicting that we need a market correction now for the last few years.... It's pretty well agreed that our market is overvalued.

I don't think anyone (at least - not the folks here on AT) think that Coronavirus is going to make the market fall to pieces and never recover. Likewise, I know that this isn't going to be anywhere near the bottom of the market based on our understanding of this virus.

 

[FelixDeCat]

You made me look. Meh. Gold is at ~$1,636. Yawn.

Dude, if its not your play, stay away.

Nugt up from $24 to $30.5 since yesterday. Call options sold, still hold some shares in anticipation of election tonight. Near term overbought, if market goes down hard miners go down too even if gold breaks for new 52 week highs, so watch out.

Nugt was $42 last week but past performance is no guarantee of future results!

Also have tiny amount of SQQQ triple short QQQ.

 

[ponyo]

Dude, if its not your play, stay away.

Nugt up from $24 to $30.5 since yesterday. Call options sold, still hold some shares in anticipation of election tonight. Near term overbought, if market goes down hard miners go down too even if gold breaks for new 52 week highs, so watch.

Nugt was $42 last week but past performance is no guarantee of future results!

Dude, I own some gold. Like almost 80 ounces. How much do you own? I don't even look at the small daily movements. Gold was close to $1,700 last week before all these chicken little started screaming the market was going to crash due to coronavirus.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Dude, I own some gold. Like almost 80 ounces. How much do you own? I don't even look at the small daily movements. Gold was close to $1,700 last week before all these chicken little started screaming the market was going to crash due to coronavirus.

Beautiful. That picture made my day.

 

[JEDI]

come on Russia. resist Opec+ cuts.
the chrono virus isn't hurting you since you a pipeline straight to China.

my 6figure short in oil is counting on you!

and damn it why did I sell my short @$62/barrel in Jan? only made a few thousand

 

[ponyo]

Beautiful. That picture made my day.

I told you I willing to sell you a bunch if you want to buy.