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***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

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ponyo said:
I believe Tesla is the closest we have to the next Apple. This time, I have no plans to sell anytime soon. Especially not to buy some stupid restaurant.
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The stock definately scares me away.
In 2001 Apple was 7 bucks / share and in bad shape. Well worth the risk. TSLA is 293 bucks and in bad shape. To get the same turnaround story you would need TSLA to reach 53802. 😕
 
KB said:
The stock definately scares me away.
In 2001 Apple was 7 bucks / share and in bad shape. Well worth the risk. TSLA is 293 bucks and in bad shape. To get the same turnaround story you would need TSLA to reach 53802. 😕
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I'm not here to tell you to buy or not buy Tesla. In 2001, Apple was $14 or $1 current share if we account for all the stock splits and the entire company was worth $4 billion. It was not in bad shape. Not even close. All the analysts were screaming the sky was falling but Jobs had everything under control. Apple had $4 billion in cash and zero debt. They just had first losing quarter since Jobs returned and saved them from bankruptcy. Apple had their first failed product under Jobs, the Power Mac G4 Cube. But it was ridiculous how everyone was predicting doom when the company had $14 share in cash and no debt. Wall Street valued Apple strictly at cash level and placed $0 value on everything else.

I only brought up Apple because Tesla is similar cult company and not because I expect Tesla to reach Apple level. Owners of Apple and Tesla products absolutely love the brand and products. That's huge and amazing and shouldn't be discounted. All the money in the world can't buy that kind of brand equity and loyalty. That's every companies dream and probably worth billions alone in free marketing and demand base. The problem with Tesla is they spent lot of money trying to ramp up Model 3 and have run into some road bumps trying to increase Model 3 production. But this is short term problem and eventually, the production issues will be resolved. The demand for Tesla cars and products are strong and increasing as more cars are delivered and people see the cars in person. I don't know any company that went bankrupt because of over demand and customers lining up to buy its product. Companies fail when there's no demand and not when there's excess demand. Tesla is in the driver seat. Tesla has huge amount of work ahead of it building out its battery and car assembly factories. And building the semi, Y, and the roadster along with 3, X, and S. And building and installing solar panels and powerbanks. And developing their Autopilot program so they can have autonomous program that can possibly replace Uber. And building out their Supercharger network. All this is going to require significant amount of money. But one thing I learned hanging out with rich people is that there's plenty of money in the world looking for the next great idea/growth story. As long as there's overwhelming demand for Tesla products, rich people will give Elon and Tesla the money needed to build out his company and vision.

And I don't worry about all the Tesla shorts. They eventually have to cover and buy. I remember a time when Apple had huge short base and nonbelievers too. One of the best time to buy stock in a company is when there's hot new product roll out and there are production issues and all the uncertainty and FUD that comes with it.
 
We all have our "one that got away" story. Here is mine.

In 2008 I day traded NFLX twice and made a profit of $2400. If I had simply held those shares I would now own:

70,000 shares (7x1 stock split) at $320 each, worth $22,406,300.

I thought NFLX was just DVDs by mail and did not really even like or even use the company's products (I still dont).

Capture2.jpg


Here we are exactly 10 years later and suffice to say I dont have $22MM. 🙁
 
Got out of AMD @ $11.60. Here's hoping it tanks again so I can buy back in lol

Also, TFW you accidentally hit "Buy" instead of "Sell". oops. Here's hoping CHK tanks again too.
 
My AAPL June 15 175 calls up 416% today at the mid day peak. I really hit this one out of the park. Still holding because I think it's going to 190+ (maybe even 200+). Already got my money back so i can only lose profits.
 
So far up 10% on TSLA. Still time to board this rocket ship to Mars. Elon is building a candy store on Olympus Mons and it's going to sell candy called "Elon's Nuts" the slogan is you have to suck them to get the flavor!


People are going to pay billions to charter Space X rockets to fly to mars just to get a taste of Elon's Nuts. TSLA to $600
 
So why is it so important for the market for Trump's decision on Iran? Futures are lower this morning. Why?

Oh, and it the Fed Reserve not really important anymore? I remember when the market swung either positive or negative based on what color tie Alan Greenspan wore, or what hand he carried his briefcase in.
 
Cepak said:
So why is it so important for the market for Trump's decision on Iran? Futures are lower this morning. Why?

Oh, and it the Fed Reserve not really important anymore? I remember when the market swung either positive or negative based on what color tie Alan Greenspan wore, or what hand he carried his briefcase in.
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Nobody really knows why the markets does what it does. The news just likes to blame volatility on something instead of saying "we have no idea whats happening so why are you watching us?".

My thoughts as a pundit:
If Trump cancels the deal, oil prices will go up, input prices will go up and inflation will go up. This may incline the fed to raise rates. This may also reduce profits for companies that use downstream oil products. Iran had deals with many companies including Boeing, which could be cancelled.

The good news is higher oil will also increase profits for oil companies. This is why indexing is good so you can just sit there and forget about it. It all balances in the end.
 
KB said:
Nobody really knows why the markets does what it does. The news just likes to blame volatility on something instead of saying "we have no idea whats happening so why are you watching us?".

My thoughts as a pundit:
If Trump cancels the deal, oil prices will go up, input prices will go up and inflation will go up. This may incline the fed to raise rates. This may also reduce profits for companies that use downstream oil products. Iran had deals with many companies including Boeing, which could be cancelled.

The good news is higher oil will also increase profits for oil companies. This is why indexing is good so you can just sit there and forget about it. It all balances in the end.
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I would love for the talking heads of finance to say "We have no idea whats happening so why are you watching us?" At least it would be the truth.

Oh, and while I'm at it, why is a little inflation a bad thing?
 
What happened to if price of oil past $60 /barrel, US shale oil would flood the market and drive down the price of oil? That's all I heard from so called oil analysts the past few years.

I bought more Tesla this morning in the premarket. And I plan to buy more today once the market opens. My goal was to accumulate Tesla S or X amount of shares and I should easily hit that today. Tomorrow, California should pass mandate that requires all new housing construction in the state to have solar power roof starting in Jan. 1, 2020. And Trump recently signed tariffs on Chinese solar panels. Which means Tesla which makes solar panels in US factories should benefit going forward. Not to mention, many of the new houses in California will also likely add some sort of powerwall system for electricity storage to go along with the solar power roof. Tesla should sell crap load of powerwall batteries for homes and condos.
 
ponyo said:
What happened to if price of oil past $60 /barrel, US shale oil would flood the market and drive down the price of oil? That's all I heard from so called oil analysts the past few years.

I bought more Tesla this morning in the premarket. And I plan to buy more today once the market opens. My goal was to accumulate Tesla S or X amount of shares and I should easily hit that today. Tomorrow, California should pass mandate that requires all new housing construction in the state to have solar power roof starting in Jan. 1, 2020. And Trump recently signed tariffs on Chinese solar panels. Which means Tesla which makes solar panels in US factories should benefit going forward. Not to mention, many of the new houses in California will also likely add some sort of powerwall system for electricity storage to go along with the solar power roof. Tesla should sell crap load of powerwall batteries for homes and condos.
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The current prices have nothing to do with a lack of capacity or low inventories.... the only reason oil is over 60 is due to political risk (mostly caused by Trump).


I think TSLA is by far the best play here, because Trump could back track at any moment and send oil crashing down. I moved about 70% of my portfolio in TSLA last week and it has been very good to me so far. I wish I had bought options but i burned myself so hard on calls a month ago and there is some psychological issue I'm having with trading derivatives again on this equity.
 
I don't see how Trump bailing on the Iran nuke deal is a surprise. It was one of his campaign agenda items. I think the talking heads can't tell the difference between their asses and a hole in the ground and will state anything as an excuse for market volatility. I think they enjoy having people scared and the market fluctuating. Otherwise they'd have nothing to talk about.
 
Wasn't that surprised, and apparently neither was the market since there has been barely any fluctuation in the short time since the announcement.

And I agree on the talking heads. They enjoy creating panic and fear (similar to newscasters on the nightly news) as it drives ratings. Something a human behaviorist will have to dig into one of these days...
 
Cepak said:
So the "uncertainty" is over and the market is back to positive. What a bunch of stupid F's.
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Sorry Cepak. The impact of the decision will now rely on Iran's response and its affect on companies that are making money from the deal and those that will benefit from there being no deal.

But there will definitely be a disruption. Its size will could be impacted by Iran.
 
Cepak said:
Goldman Sachs is blaming Mom and Pop investors for the market volatility.

https://www.marketwatch.com/Story/g...n-stocks-2018-05-08?&siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

I say BS, and I blame Goldman Sach's behavior and that of analysts, along with the algorithmic trading and the quant bots. No way are "mom and pop" investors responsible...hell they aren't the ones with billions to invest.
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In my extremely novice experience with markets and financial analysis, I have at least captured one rather solid truth: If Goldman is declaring something, you can be sure that they actually believe or are doing the exact opposite
 
I think the fact that the number of individuals trading from their desk at home is increasing rapidly does have something to do with the "new" market.

Look at a guy like me. I don't add value. I don't invest in companies because I believe in them in the long term. I circle like a vulture, extracting value from the market wherever I can, and I rarely lose money.

I'm part of the problem.
 
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/09/california-approves-plan-to-mandate-solar-panels-on-new-homes.html

As expected, California passes mandate requiring solar panels on all new home construction 3 stories or lower. The requirement takes place starting Jan 1, 2020. This is a win for Tesla and they should benefit. There were about 50K+ new single family homes and 50K+ multi family homes built last year in California. Tesla will capture some of the solar panel market and they should have upper hand in the battery storage add-on market for all these new solar roof homes.
 
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