***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[dasherHampton]

Very strange.

I was going over my emails and got to a brokerage receipt. It indicated a short sale, which I did not do, so I looked a little closer. Monday morning I wasn't sure if I could be at my desk at 8:30 so I had placed an order at 8 am for 10 contracts (covered calls), around $40 each, so about $400. But to my surprise the transaction log showed no gain.

For some reason the contracts had sold for .01 each, so I made .10 total instead of $400. The contacts are currently selling for around $40 again.

I'm going to clear this up tomorrow, obviously, but any guesses as to what might have happened? How could a short sale even be in play? It's not an option when selling calls.

 

[DietDrThunder]

Roseanne Bar claimed her racists tweets came from Ambien. It didn't help her and it won't help Musk. Nobody wants their CEO to be on twitter and Ambien, so no wonder people are selling TSLA.

Ambien is one of the medications I was prescribed for my sleeping problems. I'll have to admit, I did some pretty stupid stuff while one it, and it really didn't help me sleep. I don't remember any of this happening, I can only tell you what my wife told me. Apparently I had fallen asleep around 11 PM, and was only asleep for about 30 minutes when I got out of bed. My wife asked me where I was going and my response was "going to work." I did not get dressed, I got the keys to my car and got in, I did open the garage door and proceeded to back out. When my wife heard the garage door open she got concerned and opened the door to the garage when stuff started happening. Her car was parked in the driveway behind my car. I had backed into her car and must have realized my car wasn't moving, so she said I kept applying more gas pedal. Besides the loud crunching sounds from the two cars banging against each other, the garage was filled with smoke from all the burning rubber from the tires on my car. She said that my car just stopped, so she climbed in and turned the ignition off. She got me out of the car, guided me to the couch, and grabbed all of the car keys. She moved my car back to where she could close the garage door, then came in the house to confront me. She said I was dead asleep on the couch and she couldn't wake me. I woke up around noon the next day and my wife was sitting there staring at me. She told me the story and I didn't believe any of it until she took me to the garage which still smelled of burned rubber, and showed me the damage on both vehicles. We scheduled an appointment with my primary care physician, and needless to say, I've never taken Ambien again.

 

[zinfamous]

Ambien is one of the medications I was prescribed for my sleeping problems. I'll have to admit, I did some pretty stupid stuff while one it, and it really didn't help me sleep. I don't remember any of this happening, I can only tell you what my wife told me. Apparently I had fallen asleep around 11 PM, and was only asleep for about 30 minutes when I got out of bed. My wife asked me where I was going and my response was "going to work." I did not get dressed, I got the keys to my car and got in, I did open the garage door and proceeded to back out. When my wife heard the garage door open she got concerned and opened the door to the garage when stuff started happening. Her car was parked in the driveway behind my car. I had backed into her car and must have realized my car wasn't moving, so she said I kept applying more gas pedal. Besides the loud crunching sounds from the two cars banging against each other, the garage was filled with smoke from all the burning rubber from the tires on my car. She said that my car just stopped, so she climbed in and turned the ignition off. She got me out of the car, guided me to the couch, and grabbed all of the car keys. She moved my car back to where she could close the garage door, then came in the house to confront me. She said I was dead asleep on the couch and she couldn't wake me. I woke up around noon the next day and my wife was sitting there staring at me. She told me the story and I didn't believe any of it until she took me to the garage which still smelled of burned rubber, and showed me the damage on both vehicles. We scheduled an appointment with my primary care physician, and needless to say, I've never taken Ambien again.

Damn. I've read some pretty crazy Ambien stories. Some of the best are when people take one just prior to boarding a Red Eye. The best of those is when the flight is delayed right after you take the Ambien, and you're now stuck at the gate.

 

[dasherHampton]

Welp, after an hour on the phone with several departments the brokerage is taking no responsibility. They say it must have been an "unusual pre-market fluctuation".

blech. They offered me 20 free trades and I told them to stick the free trades up their ass.

Oh well. Could have been worse I guess.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Welp, after an hour on the phone with several departments the brokerage is taking no responsibility. They say it must have been an "unusual pre-market fluctuation".

blech. They offered me 20 free trades and I told them to stick the free trades up their ass.

Oh well. Could have been worse I guess.

So did they undo the trade or are you stuck having to deliver $40,000 worth of shares for .10 cents? If so, I would call a securities lawyer pronto.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ambien is one of the medications I was prescribed for my sleeping problems. I'll have to admit, I did some pretty stupid stuff while one it, and it really didn't help me sleep. I don't remember any of this happening, I can only tell you what my wife told me. Apparently I had fallen asleep around 11 PM, and was only asleep for about 30 minutes when I got out of bed. My wife asked me where I was going and my response was "going to work." I did not get dressed, I got the keys to my car and got in, I did open the garage door and proceeded to back out. When my wife heard the garage door open she got concerned and opened the door to the garage when stuff started happening. Her car was parked in the driveway behind my car. I had backed into her car and must have realized my car wasn't moving, so she said I kept applying more gas pedal. Besides the loud crunching sounds from the two cars banging against each other, the garage was filled with smoke from all the burning rubber from the tires on my car. She said that my car just stopped, so she climbed in and turned the ignition off. She got me out of the car, guided me to the couch, and grabbed all of the car keys. She moved my car back to where she could close the garage door, then came in the house to confront me. She said I was dead asleep on the couch and she couldn't wake me. I woke up around noon the next day and my wife was sitting there staring at me. She told me the story and I didn't believe any of it until she took me to the garage which still smelled of burned rubber, and showed me the damage on both vehicles. We scheduled an appointment with my primary care physician, and needless to say, I've never taken Ambien again.

This is some class-action material if I've ever seen it.

 

[repoman0]

I am sad that I didn't buy AMD in the 9s like I almost did.

 

[dasherHampton]

No, its not like that. I own the shares already.

I was just trying to sell some calls on them. I still feel like they botched my order but what can I do. I basically gave the calls away.

If they get exercised I'll stall make money. I just lost the fee.

 

[jpiniero]

Tesla announced on Friday that, yes, they are giving up on going private... because well lets face it, funding was never secured and couldn't convince the Saudis.

 

[zinfamous]

I am sad that I didn't buy AMD in the 9s like I almost did.

same. I bought my shares at $4.65, then after a month or so put in an order at $5 when it had moved up to 9 or so then crashed back down to $5ish (which it never reached that day at opening), then later when it fell back to $9-ish (same as before), then again, some months later, at $10. ...never could make those additional purchases because I just set buy orders ahead of opening at my target price, and I seem to pick the exact day where it stops falling, then bounces back up and I miss my target by about 20 cents, lol.

It's the only individual stock that I own, and it isn't a significant amount. The rest of my money is all in various Index funds. Also a bit annoyed that I wanted to buy in at around $3, because they had been in that $2-3 range for so long, I told myself to wait for some real support behind a growing share price. But, whatever. Then of course you tell yourself, ...what if I liquidated and dumped all of my savings into this one share....I'd be a millionaire today! Yes but, past me is still smarter, maybe, than present me. No one would do such a thing.

 

[ponyo]

Tesla announced on Friday that, yes, they are giving up on going private... because well lets face it, funding was never secured and couldn't convince the Saudis.

Yes, I'm pissed at Elon. He took the coward route and announced this on Twitter close to midnight on Friday after the markets closed for the weekend. I'm sure the board made him wait but when has Elon listened before? Pretty weak move. He has done more to harm Tesla short term than any shorts could have. I can't remember bigger act of self-sabotage in my 25 years of playing the market. Closest I can compare and it's not even the same thing or close to the self-inflicted damage is Netflix CEO Hastings wanting to separate the company and rename it Qwikster back in 2011. Musk is reminder why you shouldn't do drugs and CEO and famous people should stay off Twitter. If he had just not lied and tweeted what he did, Tesla stock price would've taken care of itself. Now his reputation and credibility are shot and it's going to be hard for him to say anything without people second guessing and trusting him.

So given what we know now, what's next? Well, we can now pretty much not trust Elon with his statement about Tesla not needing to raise additional cash/capital this year or early next year. That statement now goes out the window. Tesla will need to raise cash to pay off the convertible bond and for other projects. So expect stock sale and/or further debt offering before end of this year. Since Musk already hired Goldman and Morgan Stanley for the now scraped private deal, they will probably help and work on raising the debt money for Tesla or stock sale. Musk and Tesla will have to deal with legal fallout of this tweet for years. I don't think Musk will go to jail but he's going to pay some fine and he's going to have to deal with lot of lawsuits. It's just going to be huge distraction going forward. My plan? I still believe in Musk and Tesla even with this clusterfuck and will double down. I was never that thrilled with the idea of Tesla going private and thought Tesla was worth far more than $420 offering price and I still believe that. It's a shame that this circus sideshow derailed what was nice momentum after Tesla 2nd quarter earnings report.

 

[woodman1999]

I hate thinking about things I sold to soon or didn't buy enough of... sold FB st 90.... oops. Didn't buy enough TRXC, AMD, or NVDA.... oops. Traded in and out of ISRG in the 300s instead of just holding it.... oops.

Hindsight sucks in the market.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I hate thinking about things I sold to soon or didn't buy enough of... sold FB st 90.... oops. Didn't buy enough TRXC, AMD, or NVDA.... oops. Traded in and out of ISRG in the 300s instead of just holding it.... oops.

Hindsight sucks in the market.

Yeah, thats the way I feel right now. I bought a DECENT amount of AMD @ ~$10-12. Also bought a decent amount with Chipotle... but I just wish I threw away my "safety first" logic and went balls deep on my buys for those

 

[FelixDeCat]

Yes, I'm pissed at Elon. He took the coward route and announced this on Twitter close to midnight on Friday after the markets closed for the weekend. I'm sure the board made him wait but when has Elon listened before? Pretty weak move. He has done more to harm Tesla short term than any shorts could have. I can't remember bigger act of self-sabotage in my 25 years of playing the market. Closest I can compare and it's not even the same thing or close to the self-inflicted damage is Netflix CEO Hastings wanting to separate the company and rename it Qwikster back in 2011. Musk is reminder why you shouldn't do drugs and CEO and famous people should stay off Twitter. If he had just not lied and tweeted what he did, Tesla stock price would've taken care of itself. Now his reputation and credibility are shot and it's going to be hard for him to say anything without people second guessing and trusting him.

So given what we know now, what's next? Well, we can now pretty much not trust Elon with his statement about Tesla not needing to raise additional cash/capital this year or early next year. That statement now goes out the window. Tesla will need to raise cash to pay off the convertible bond and for other projects. So expect stock sale and/or further debt offering before end of this year. Since Musk already hired Goldman and Morgan Stanley for the now scraped private deal, they will probably help and work on raising the debt money for Tesla or stock sale. Musk and Tesla will have to deal with legal fallout of this tweet for years. I don't think Musk will go to jail but he's going to pay some fine and he's going to have to deal with lot of lawsuits. It's just going to be huge distraction going forward. My plan? I still believe in Musk and Tesla even with this clusterfuck and will double down. I was never that thrilled with the idea of Tesla going private and thought Tesla was worth far more than $420 offering price and I still believe that. It's a shame that this circus sideshow derailed what was nice momentum after Tesla 2nd quarter earnings report.

Considering your ardent support and faith in Musk's buyout tweet, this is quite an admission. Its good to know that you can now see the bigger picture we were trying to warn you about - that Musk has "issues" and the pressures of meeting expectations are driving him to say and do batty things.

Tesla is in desperate need of reform. I saw a video on Bloomberg about a rich guy who has a stable of fine cars and paid over $100,000 for a Model S. The biggest problem it had at delivery was the alignment was so bad the car wasnt drive-able. Service time to fix his *freshly delivered* car?? Two and half months!

Also, a Tesla was torn down recently for inspection and many quality issues related to fit and finish were noted:

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/new...s-model-3-may-have-quality-issues-082318.html

Investment bank UBS has concluded that Tesla’s Model 3 sedan is riddled with quality issues, including inconsistent gaps and flushness throughout the car, missing bolts, loose tolerances, and uneven and misaligned spot welds.

Granted UBS is bearish on Tesla which probably motivated them to find things wrong, but still they did find them.

I suspect Monday TSLA will open sub $300 and probably go even lower ($220ish by December?) now that the CEO's credibility is in question and there will be additional need to raise capital through secondary offerings.

 

[jpiniero]

I could easily see Musk being banned from being an officer in a public company.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I could easily see Musk being banned from being an officer in a public company.

Depending on what sort of sanctions the SEC imposes, thats a possibility. I mentioned it earlier, it would be wise for Musk to step back and let his talent do more of the day to day operations. Micromanaging should not be his gig. He needs to be there for the big picture and the lieutenants do the heavy lifting. Also stay away from social media and run your thoughts through the board before making any public pronouncements. He needs to rebuild his image gradually over time.

Once the near term issues are worked out (quality control, rolling over debt and/or issuing more shares), they can refocus on the brand and become what they really want to be - a successful and PROFITABLE car company.

But please, no more sky high pronouncements and moon shot expectations near term.....they cant afford it right now. Look over the next 5 years not 5 months.

 

[ponyo]

Considering your ardent support and faith in Musk's buyout tweet, this is quite an admission. Its good to know that you can now see the bigger picture we were trying to warn you about - that Musk has "issues" and the pressures of meeting expectations are driving him to say and do batty things.

Tesla is in desperate need of reform. I saw a video on Bloomberg about a rich guy who has a stable of fine cars and paid over $100,000 for a Model S. The biggest problem it had at delivery was the alignment was so bad the car wasnt drive-able. Service time to fix his *freshly delivered* car?? Two and half months!

Also, a Tesla was torn down recently for inspection and many quality issues related to fit and finish were noted:

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/new...s-model-3-may-have-quality-issues-082318.html



Granted UBS is bearish on Tesla which probably motivated them to find things wrong, but still they did find them.

I suspect Monday TSLA will open sub $300 and probably go even lower ($220ish by December?) now that the CEO's credibility is in question and there will be additional need to raise capital through secondary offerings.

Lol. I know you're trolling but you didn't warn me about anything. What Musk tweeted was unprecedented and he misled everyone. You take CEO at their word at something serious as this and if they say funding secured and the only thing left is shareholder vote, you would be crazy not to believe and act accordingly. But there is first time for everything. The big picture hasn't changed. Electric cars are the future and Tesla is going to be big part of it. It's just going to extra bumpy ride for Tesla and Musk in the meantime.

As for the Bloomberg video and Youtube video, I'm not even going to waste my time. Tesla has >90% of buyers saying they will buy another Tesla. That's incredible. You would think if the quality control was so poor, people would hate their Tesla cars and owners would say they would never buy another Tesla. But that's 100% not the case. Tesla owners LOVE their Tesla cars. I mean LOVE. People don't love bad products. Quality control is something that can and will be solved just like Model 3 production issues are now solved for the most part. The fit and finish are getting better and will continue to do so. If your main and best argument against Tesla is poor fit and finish, you really don't have any argument. Because fit and finish will improve and once that problem is solved, then what are you left with? You have nothing just like people who thought Tesla would never make more than 2,000 Model 3 cars a week.

I don't pretend to know how Tesla will trade Monday other than it will probably open down. But talk is cheap. If you think Tesla will be $220 by December, the casino is open and your money is good if you have any. You won't hurt my feelings if you bet against Tesla. I'll probably respect you more if you do. Because like I said, talk is cheap.

 

[FelixDeCat]

^Sure Musk played you and the entire market while he was on an Ambien delusion, but dont blame me or anyone else who was warning you that "funding secured" was not likely going to happen. I even said they had to stay public to access markets and fund the non-profit operation, remember?

As far as betting against the stock, I have never traded TSLA stock or options and dont *think* I will any time soon. I think the only people left who own the stock are true believers who will ride it anywhere it goes ..... to $420 or to ZERO.

Also, I pointed out some concerns over quality and service issues for Teslas. If I paid six figures for a car and it was defective at delivery I would be pissed, but to then be told the wait time to have it fixed is TWO MONTHS, I would call Musk himself and tell him to bring his tool box and fix my car!!

In the meantime I will continue to drive my old clunker and watch the drama from the sidelines.

 

[zinfamous]

I could easily see Musk being banned from being an officer in a public company.

Man, if only we held actual leaders responsible for their actual consequences to the same standards that we hold this Musk guy to for like, 2 tweets.

Wow.

 

[FIVR]

$20 by April is unlikely but possible. I see AMD trading in the 15-18$ range by then... which is why I bought $10 1/19 Calls when it was $9.90.

Who here took my advice and bought AMD? If you had bought AMD at 9.90 like I repeatedly recommended you would have 150% returns simply buy buying the stock!

Those calls I spoke about? Up over 400%


There is still time to buy AMD before it gets to $30. It will be over 30 in a week or two.

 

[zinfamous]

Who here took my advice and bought AMD? If you had bought AMD at 9.90 like I repeatedly recommended you would have 150% returns simply buy buying the stock!

Those calls I spoke about? Up over 400%


There is still time to buy AMD before it gets to $30. It will be over 30 in a week or two.

Me am smarter than you and bought it at $4.60, but only after watching it climb from about $2.90, lol.

Thing is, at that time and at your time, Meltdown and Specter weren't publicly disclosed, Krazanich didn't go nuts and was still employed at Intel and when I bought in 2016, Zen had not yet been released and its performance was still completely unknown and mostly written off as "Fake AMD marketing blah blah blah..." and well, for good reason based on history.

 

[FIVR]

Me am smarter than you and bought it at $4.60, but only after watching it climb from about $2.90, lol.

Thing is, at that time and at your time, Meltdown and Specter weren't publicly disclosed, Krazanich didn't go nuts and was still employed at Intel and when I bought in 2016, Zen had not yet been released and its performance was still completely unknown and mostly written off as "Fake AMD marketing blah blah blah..." and well, for good reason based on history.

4.60 is impressive but my first buy goes back to May of 2016 at 4.08, so I still got you beat. Granted I hadn't even joined this forum at that time and definitely hadn't posted about AMD.


I covered my intel short at 49 and have been waiting for a new CEO to re-enter. Now it appears that was far too soon and nobody wants to be CEO of intel so they keep falling.

 

[zinfamous]

4.60 is impressive but my first buy goes back to May of 2016 at 4.08, so I still got you beat. Granted I hadn't even joined this forum at that time and definitely hadn't posted about AMD.


I covered my intel short at 49 and have been waiting for a new CEO to re-enter. Now it appears that was far too soon and nobody wants to be CEO of intel so they keep falling.

It's just play money for me. barely enough to think about and is the only individual stock I own. I had tried to buy more at $5, $9, and $10 over the last two years, in response to those weird week-long drops from their 2 year highs, but the orders I placed priced out on opening and I just cancelled them, lol. I couldn't really justify my thinking at the time, because it was still "too early" to expect AMD to gain serious support in that $15 range. Oh well.

 

[KB]

There is still time to buy AMD before it gets to $30. It will be over 30 in a week or two.

What is the thesis for buying AMD at this point or is this a short term play? NVDA and AMD have been jumping in the last year due to crypto currency miners buying video cards. NVDA just admitted this was ending soon, so shouldn't their revenue and then their stock prices fall?

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2018...-great-for-gpu-makers-that-might-change-soon/

 

[zinfamous]

What is the thesis for buying AMD at this point or is this a short term play? NVDA and AMD have been jumping in the last year due to crypto currency miners buying video cards. NVDA just admitted this was ending soon, so shouldn't their revenue and then their stock prices fall?

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2018...-great-for-gpu-makers-that-might-change-soon/

There really isn't anything interesting about the GPU sector when it comes to AMD. forget about crypto nonsense, which was announced at their last two earnings reports this year as "not significant in the upcoming year." AMD is all about Epyc for the next two to three years, while Intel suffered some serious setbacks at 10nm and are, at this point, stuck on what is predicted to be an under-performing process throughout 2020, at least. AMD will have Epyc chips on 7nm in 2019, as well as desktop Zen (or maybe that is 2020, I forget). Again, this, I think is what is driving investor interest now, based on information from all camps regarding their 2018 and 2019 outlook.

It doesn't mean it will happen that way, but I think most are seeing blue blood in the water right now, especially as there seems to be no real end in site regarding Spectre-related security issues that are mostly tied to Intel's architecture.