***Official*** 2017 Stock Market Thread

[louis redfoot]

Right; but I hope you don't think that I was suggesting that Apple was a bad buy back in the day when they stuck a 3.5mm headphone jack on a hard drive, charged $400, and called it a revolution.

market cap only $10b. potential aquisition target for someone like walmart to overtake starbucks as the new town square. the buffet there is really good too.

 

[ImpulsE69]

Thoughts on NVDA and AMD? Was thinking about picking up a little of both, NVDA on the big dip it had today (down more AH) and AMD...but I am wondering if it is a bad time to get AMD...will it dump some before it takes off more or will it hold it's levels and go up given the positive outlook on it's new processors?

 

[zinfamous]

Thoughts on NVDA and AMD? Was thinking about picking up a little of both, NVDA on the big dip it had today (down more AH) and AMD...but I am wondering if it is a bad time to get AMD...will it dump some before it takes off more or will it hold it's levels and go up given the positive outlook on it's new processors?

Ryzen is out next week. It might be a good idea to buy now and ride the hype wave. I'm still thinking that ~$15 is the proper price for AMD shares--all of that up until now has been rumor, speculation, hype without anything released outside of Polaris over the last year--so I think this is a fair real price looking at how Ryzen appears to be performing right now.

But here's the thing: Naples (server chips) is out in 2nd Qtr. Vega is out 2nd Qtr (probably not going to be as big of a disruptor as Ryzen, though). If Naples is anything like Ryzen (it probably is), and Vega gives real competition to NVidia (though I'm not sure they will win on price like they do with Ryzen vs Intel), then the shares could easily climb up to $25 by the end of the year. ...but I still think $15 +/- is the real price...but what do I know?

Now, watch, every time I say something like this, they go up another 5 or 8% and hold for 2 weeks, lol.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Um the market is looking like its going to take a bath. I would be careful buying anything at the moment.

 

[zinfamous]

Um the market is looking like its going to take a bath. I would be careful buying anything at the moment.

I agree. But there will always be a few winners here and there riding upwards against the mud slide. AMD is probably one of those in the short-mid term. If they dip again in the next week or two, it will likely be due to the ~4th wave of short positions being sold off over the last 6 months, lol.

 

[Uppsala9496]

Just sold off the last third of my ETF's that was making me nervous. Now I'm only holding onto the total market fund (1/3rd my investment cash) and the rest is sitting as cash. Would like it to be earning something but I don't trust the market right now.
Maybe I'll dump it into a 6 month CD.

Just waiting for a big enough dip to get back in.

 

[KB]

Just sold off the last third of my ETF's that was making me nervous. Now I'm only holding onto the total market fund (1/3rd my investment cash) and the rest is sitting as cash. Would like it to be earning something but I don't trust the market right now.
Maybe I'll dump it into a 6 month CD.

Just waiting for a big enough dip to get back in.

Getting nervous about valuations myself, but there is still nowhere for money to go. CD rates are still low because treasury rates are still low and many european countries still have negative rates. This makes stocks still the best place to be.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Getting nervous about valuations myself, but there is still nowhere for money to go. CD rates are still low because treasury rates are still low and many european countries still have negative rates. This makes stocks still the best place to be.

True dat KB, however, the stock market is only place where one can earn large short term negative returns (unless you don't sell and also don't mind waiting weeks, months or years to get back to where you were).

 

[JEDI]

True dat KB, however, the stock market is only place where one can earn large short term negative returns (unless you don't sell and also don't mind waiting weeks, months or years to get back to where you were).

my neighborhood gas station lowered the price from $2.25/gal to $2.20 overnite.

time to triple short oil (again)?

 

[FelixDeCat]

my neighborhood gas station lowered the price from $2.25/gal to $2.20 overnite.

time to triple short oil (again)?

I'd be extremely careful. I think we see $58 a barrel before we see $48. The cooperative efforts to reduce supply seem to be building upward momentum but for now its mostly hope since supply is still very plentiful.

I wonder how growing military tensions with China are going to effect oil and the stock market as a whole. Right now the QQQ is trading at $130 but open conflict might knock it down to $100.

 

[Charmonium]

I think it's possible that stock values could catch up with their prices. For a very long time now businesses have been reluctant to invest in new plant and equipment mainly because of uncertainly about the political environment. They don't have that excuse any more. In addition, Fixed assets are the oldest they've been in a while and are overdue for replacement. So you should start to see a wave of investment hitting the economy any day now. . . . any day now. . . .

 

[bookem dano]

I started a new python project the other night ... stock market timing algorithms. I've been kicking around the idea in my head for a few years but found another site where a couple engineers came up with some models that work well on past market data and charge a ton of money for access to them. I figure, I TOO am an engineer who works with complicated data all day ... should be able to come up with a testing framework, a few models, optimize model parameters using past data, backtesting and hopefully hypothetically avoiding past market drops and recessions ... then applying to the current market over time and hope the models are robust enough that they work on out of testing set data points.

Learning python is a nice bonus since I can't get free matlab anymore except on my work laptop and I hate my work laptop.

You could try to validate this...

http://etfdailynews.com/2016/10/15/one-strategy-to-trade-the-dow-before-its-big-meltdown/

 

[ImpulsE69]

I ended up grabbing a little AMD on it's dip.

With the way things are going with Trump..I'm thinking just dumping everything in CXW.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I ended up grabbing a little AMD on it's dip.

With the way things are going with Trump..I'm thinking just dumping everything in CXW.

Assuming the market doesn't tank, Im fairly certain AMD will hit $18 sometime this year. I have no interest in the stock long or short.

 

[Ken g6]

I started a new python project the other night ... stock market timing algorithms. I've been kicking around the idea in my head for a few years but found another site where a couple engineers came up with some models that work well on past market data and charge a ton of money for access to them. I figure, I TOO am an engineer who works with complicated data all day ... should be able to come up with a testing framework, a few models, optimize model parameters using past data, backtesting and hopefully hypothetically avoiding past market drops and recessions ... then applying to the current market over time and hope the models are robust enough that they work on out of testing set data points.

Learning python is a nice bonus since I can't get free matlab anymore except on my work laptop and I hate my work laptop.

I tried that kind of thing once on some Dow data. Stuff that worked back in the mid 20th century stopped working later, and was even regressive.

 

[repoman0]

I tried that kind of thing once on some Dow data. Stuff that worked back in the mid 20th century stopped working later, and was even regressive.

What did you try? What inputs and model ideas?

 

[Ken g6]

What did you try? What inputs and model ideas?

I don't remember exactly. Basically I was trying to buy when the market was going down, and sell when it's going up.

 

[zinfamous]

I don't remember exactly. Basically I was trying to buy when the market was going down, and sell when it's going up.

well, that's just an awful idea.

 

[zinfamous]

I ended up grabbing a little AMD on it's dip.

With the way things are going with Trump..I'm thinking just dumping everything in CXW.

Man, I've been thinking something like this, too. With the Trump election, I think that if you are one with no soul or moral compunction, there is no better strategy than investing in human misery going forward. :\

 

[ImpulsE69]

Man, I've been thinking something like this, too. With the Trump election, I think that if you are one with no soul or moral compunction, there is no better strategy than investing in human misery going forward. :\

Yea, I've had discussions around that aspect lol. But...I think if you are in the market at all, you are already a bit on the low moral ground, because very little about the market is morally grounded.

 

[Muse]

well, that's just an awful idea.

Yeah, the smarter idea is to buy when the market is going up and sell when it's still going up. Well, this works for individual stocks.

 

[repoman0]

well, that's just an awful idea.

heh

Yeah, it's definitely going to depend on the quality of the model. As far as I'm concerned, the concept is validated by these guys:

http://imarketsignals.com/2015/spy-ief-market-timer/

They use more than just watching the prices over time, and include inputs like VIX, S&P500 risk premium, EPS, unemployment and other generic economic data, etc.

About as far as I've gotten is pulling historic prices and dividends from Yahoo and adding up total return including dividends over any date range for a given model (my only model so far is "hold stock XXX" but others will plug right in). Next I want to learn how to use matplotlib for aiding visualization, since at work I make extensive use of matlab's plotting functionality. Eventually I'd like to attach this all to a nice GUI since if it works, it will need to be easily usable on a ~weekly basis.

I am definitely liking python so far over matlab. There are some things that suck in comparison, like no command history and reimporting modules after making changes is a pain, but there are definitely solutions for that -- write a history(n) function that displays last n commands and using test functions instead of the interactive shell that automatically reimport, etc. So really just a change in working style.

 

[Charmonium]

I like the CXW idea. Although if you're thinking about the round up of illegals being a boon for detention centers, it looks like Donald is going to ship these people back w/o much in the way of due process. So I don't think there will be a lot of opportunities to cash in on that aspect of the new Trump reality.

For AMD, just be aware that there are some problems with the Ryzen memory controller. It can't handle 4 DIMM's running at high frequencies. So if you want to use 4 3200 modules, you either have to cut that back to 2 modules or you have to down clock them to 2666. The problem should be resolved in a couple of months with a bios update but until then this will be an issue.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

MXIM recently jumped from ~$40 to ~$45.
Glad I procrastinated and held on to all those ESPPs that I got for high-20s / low-30s

 

[JEDI]

where is the crash?!
I'm waiting to max out my 2016 and 2017 Roth into Vanguard Intl fund!
$11k