***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[indamixx99]

Nugt obliterated, down almost 30% today alone. No need to take a shower tonight when I just took a bath. Step in front of a train and sometimes you get run over.

Yeah i got hammered holding this today. Avg is almost $22. Pretty confident this will rebound though.

 

[ponyo]

Sold my remaining core Twitter shares. Daily buyout stories on Bloomberg is getting to be too much so it's starting to feel crowded. And the buyout price could be lower than the current price. So I decided to lock in the gain and let the larger players fight it out.

 

[JEDI]

going to triple short oil when it hits $50/barrel

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sold my remaining core Twitter shares. Daily buyout stories on Bloomberg is getting to be too much so it's starting to feel crowded. And the buyout price could be lower than the current price. So I decided to lock in the gain and let the larger players fight it out.

Good move. No one ever went broke taking profits.

 

[Imp]

What is going on with oil? Seasonal trend for crude in the U.S. is for a supply build starting around September. Instead we get some of the biggest draws of the year?

 

[FelixDeCat]

What is going on with oil? Seasonal trend for crude in the U.S. is for a supply build starting around September. Instead we get some of the biggest draws of the year?

Havernt you heard? Its just China hoarding resources again. China caused the spike in 2008 to $150 a barrel, a few years later America started fracking and now we have too much. Did I mention Iran now sells oil? So now we have $50 oil (used to be $25 earlier this year).

So here we have China again, anticipating demand for its 1,000,000,000 people way into the future and $50 looks cheap, so they buy. And buy. And buy.

Oh yeah, America is now an OIL EXPORTER.

 

[ponyo]

Something strange is going on with Twitter stock after hours. It's showing last trade at $22.50, down $2.32 from the normal close. I checked Nasdaq after hours trading and it's not just couple shares that someone was trying to paint the tape. The volume was over 2 million after hours.

 

[ponyo]

Found the reason for the Twitter stock price drop after hours. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ump-after-report-says-google-won-t-make-a-bid

Some rumor report saying Google won't make a bid for Twitter. It's the battle of rumors. Rumor to push it up. Another rumor to push it down. There will probably be another rumor to push it back up. The big boys are playing now. As long as the stock stays above $21, I'm tempted to buyback and play again.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Welp, I posted a few days ago that the whole TWTR buyout rumor game (that has been continually played since 2015) is just a steady stream of pump and dump nonsense.

You should see all the wailing and gnashing of teeth from baghholders on the stock message board who did not sell. Obama's SEC has a lot to answer for on this one.

 

[dullard]

Shorting metals long term right now is a VERY bad idea. Yeah, you might get lucky and make a dime intraday. Enjoy it. And don't spend it all in one place.

But to say your thesis for shorting Silver is that "its 'long term' value is $5, short it!!" ...without understanding the underlying reasons for its recent rise from $12 to $18.5 (a 50% increase), is uniformed ...to put it mildly.

Dyarr.

Silver price when you edited that post: $18.71/ounce.
Silver price now: $17.37/ounce and falling.
How is your uniformed logic doing? Whatever uniformed logic means. Note: bolding in the quote above was yours, so the uniformity of the logic must have been impeccable.

My informed thesis is this:
1) Metals are overvalued due to irrational exuberance. Fear is driving their price, not their true underlying value. Metals were a hedge against this fear, but that fear has been waning for years. The sky didn't fall with the great recession, the Eurozone may fall apart but that will be over decades and seems to be reasonably orderly rather than in one overnight panic.

2) Metals were used a hedge against inflation by those who don't understand he underlying cause of inflation (how many hyperinflation threads did Anandtech have back then, it seemed like a new one came out each week?) A massive great recession is almost never the cause of inflation. Thus the hedge was misplaced. And people have been realizing this folly. Not all at once, but people have been realizing it for the last few years as the hyperinflation talk dies down.

3) Big institutions/countries with large metal stockpiles are getting more and more desperate to actually use that wealth rather than continue to watch it decline. As oil wealth declines, many countries are being caught overspending with nothing to back it up. Venezuela for example. Heck even Canada recently sold all of its gold.

4) Metals tend to go the opposite of interest rates. The US is looking to finally really start raising rates this winter. Thus metals, if following the typical pattern, will go down.

5) Metals will eventually go to their production cost value--which for silver is about $9/ounce. Metals have gone through this boom/bust multiple times before and it is often in a ~30-year cycle. Thus, no, they won't return to their true value overnight. But they will be returning.

Was that uniformed enough?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ummm...dullard.....I was buying low and selling high. My purchases were even subsidized, as my cost per ounce was less than $5 each!!

IN FACT not long after I made that post - silver hit an intraday high of nearly $21. Anyone could have made a killing on the ride from $18 to nearly $21 alone. Now after I sold at $19 and long after the correction in metals is clear....YOU WANT TO GLOAT?!!

Ok.

(ps. We are both now cheering for $12-$14 silver. )

 

[FelixDeCat]

Forgot to mention that while I agree with your uninformed* thesis on why metals are due for a correction, everything you said has been true in the midst of the rally. There is such things as commodities bubbles and we were in a short term one for metals IMO.

I dont think I would short them right now because who knows what impact the US election will have. If Donald Trump wins I suspect there will be rioting in Chicago, New York, Los Angeles and other liberal enclaves with potential deportees. If there is no rioting, then Donalds own words might send the metals soaring on uncertainty from our new president. He tends to shoot from the hip and without a second thought.


* = lol

 

[ponyo]

Silver hit my buy level so I bought the first batch of SLV today. It's 1/2 of my full desired position. We should see big move up or down tomorrow morning after the report. The 1/2 half may or may not be filled depending on the report tomorrow.

Gold chart is broken but silver chart is still good. We might see attempt tomorrow morning to break it.

 

[ponyo]

Welp, I posted a few days ago that the whole TWTR buyout rumor game (that has been continually played since 2015) is just a steady stream of pump and dump nonsense.

You should see all the wailing and gnashing of teeth from baghholders on the stock message board who did not sell. Obama's SEC has a lot to answer for on this one.

Twitter broke under $21 so I really have no interest to get back in. I got lucky with my exit timing so I'm moving on.

 

[dullard]

IN FACT not long after I made that post - silver hit an intraday high of nearly $21. Anyone could have made a killing on the ride from $18 to nearly $21 alone. Now after I sold at $19 and long after the correction in metals is clear....YOU WANT TO GLOAT?!!

You gloated, so I came back to gloat. I do that.

Suppose, at the time you posted that it was a VERY bad idea to short metals, a person purchased DSLV (the stock that I keep suggesting). That would have been a $24.81 purchase price. Just by holding onto that, it is now $27.69. Is that a killing? No. Could one have done better? Yes. But a 11.6% return in 3 months is not a "VERY bad idea".

Yes, there will be short-term bubbles (up and down). But the overall long-term trend is just down, down, down with metals. Shorting is where you should be in the long-run. Theoretically it is possible to regularly buy/sell and if you timed it right for each short-term bubble you'd do quite well. Or, since timing is nearly impossible, you'd probably lose your shirt. I only recommend plays that are likely to turn out long-term, not plays that are so risky that you might make a killing or might lose it all.

Trump won't win. But even if he did, it will just be a short bubble up.

 

[ponyo]

You gloated, so I came back to gloat. I do that.

Suppose, at the time you posted that it was a VERY bad idea to short metals, a person purchased DSLV (the stock that I keep suggesting). That would have been a $24.81 purchase price. Just by holding onto that, it is now $27.69. Is that a killing? No. Could one have done better? Yes. But a 11.6% return in 3 months is not a "VERY bad idea".

Yes, there will be short-term bubbles (up and down). But the overall long-term trend is just down, down, down with metals. Shorting is where you should be in the long-run. Theoretically it is possible to regularly buy/sell and if you timed it right for each short-term bubble you'd do quite well. Or, since timing is nearly impossible, you'd probably lose your shirt. I only recommend plays that are likely to turn out long-term, not plays that are so risky that you might make a killing or might lose it all.

Trump won't win. But even if he did, it will just be a short bubble up.

I think it's bad idea to recommend DSLV or any 3x ETF. If you held DSLV for 3 months, that's crazy. I remember when you recommended people buy DSLV back in the $60 as a way to short silver. Silver price is similar to back then yet DSLV is down more than 50%. 3X stuff is toxic and you have to be crazy to hold 3 months.

Silver used to be a buck an ounce and gold $35 an ounce. I don't see long term trend being down with metals. I see pause in bigger future run up.

This week's action in metals suggest a big leveraged fund with big PM holdings blew up and was forced to liquidate causing a chain reaction. There's no major news that explains the pounding PM took this week. My guess is forced liquidation.

 

[Imp]

Havernt you heard? Its just China hoarding resources again. China caused the spike in 2008 to $150 a barrel, a few years later America started fracking and now we have too much. Did I mention Iran now sells oil? So now we have $50 oil (used to be $25 earlier this year).

So here we have China again, anticipating demand for its 1,000,000,000 people way into the future and $50 looks cheap, so they buy. And buy. And buy.

Some analysis came out last week that China may have been buying way more oil than people thought to fill storage tanks people didn't know existed. Concern was that China's tank-filling demand made up more demand than they thought. So, the fundamentals of China's economy are not strong?

You should see all the wailing and gnashing of teeth from baghholders on the stock message board who did not sell. Obama's SEC has a lot to answer for on this one.

If SEC don't give a shit about unsubstantiated "OPEC deal" rumors over the past year, you can't expect them to care about little 'ole Twitter.

Oh, look. WTI is past $50 now because OPEC said they had a deal -- a deal that won't allocate actual cuts until November. Let me get this straight: "deals" between some of the "best" regimes on the planet who are hemorrhaging money and can use every last dollar and are well known to cheat on their quotas. And Iran may even be exempt. Never mind that 60% of global oil production isn't part of OPEC? Never mind that the deal apparently cuts production to summer 2016 levels. And things are pointing to a global slowdown and the EIA or IEA has been adjusting down their overly optimistic demand projections.

 

[FelixDeCat]

IMP, the SEC does not regulate OIL contracts / futures / prices......the CTFC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) does. They can not do anything about world government manipulation of oil prices.

Also look for yet another buyout rumor on TWTR when it hits $17. Expect the name to be AMZN this time. Expect that too to be a lie. I wonder when "buyout fatigue" will finally settle on TWTR and the stock no longer goes up on rumors alone.

 

[dullard]

3X stuff is toxic and you have to be crazy to hold 3 months.

I have no personal qualms holding DSLV that long. Most 3X funds lose a ton over time. DSLV not so much. It isn't like DUST where you can lose everything if you hold it more than a day or two.

Silver used to be a buck an ounce and gold $35 an ounce. I don't see long term trend being down with metals. I see pause in bigger future run up.

If you are going to go back 100 years to the great depression, you might as well inflation adjust it. The inflation-adjusted silver price has had its ups and downs but it overall hasn't moved much: Silver was ~$15/ounce inflation adjusted in 1916, 1968, 1982, 2006, and 2016 just to pick a few spread-out dates.
http://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart

What I meant by a long-term drop was ~$50/ounce in 2011, ~$30/ounce in 2012, ~$25/ounce in 2013, ~$20/ounce in 2014, and ~$17.30 today. I should be more clear about my long-term definitions. It'll keep dropping until about the cost to mine it which is just under $10/ounce.

I'm not dumb enough to short it all that way as then the 3X fees would kill you in comparison to the possible gains. But I will short it on the DSLV dips and sell the 3X shorts on the DSLV peaks. Thus, I'll buy and sell several times until silver reaches somewhere around $12/ounce.

 

[dullard]

This week's action in metals suggest a big leveraged fund with big PM holdings blew up and was forced to liquidate causing a chain reaction. There's no major news that explains the pounding PM took this week. My guess is forced liquidation.

No major news this week?

1) Brexit has been in the news a lot this week with the pound sterling at 30-year lows. That means that priced in pound sterling, precious metals are back near their all-time peaks. It gives England a great reason to sell their precious metals.

2) There has been a strong consensus towards federal reserve increasing rates this winter.

3) Trump's poll numbers have not done well since the debate. PMs have been inversely proportional to his ratings over the last year or so.

Precious metals all fell for those reasons. I'll take those over some speculated forced liquidation.

 

[ponyo]

No major news this week?

1) Brexit has been in the news a lot this week with the pound sterling at 30-year lows. That means that priced in pound sterling, precious metals are back near their all-time peaks. It gives England a great reason to sell their precious metals.

2) There has been a strong consensus towards federal reserve increasing rates this winter.

3) Trump's poll numbers have not done well since the debate. PMs have been inversely proportional to his ratings over the last year or so.

Precious metals all fell for those reasons. I'll take those over some speculated forced liquidation.

That's kind of news you read on Bloomberg to try explain the price action. You can buy it. I don't. It's not big enough news to suddenly drop silver to biggest weekly drop in 3 years. The price action feels like forced liquidation. We won't know for weeks if ever but that's what it feels like to me. You can believe your story. I'll believe mine and trade accordingly. That's what makes a market.

 

[Imp]

That's good to know. You can start any random rumor about oil to pump and dump, no one can do shit. But why should I expect anything else with all the real estate bubbles around the world.

"Economics" assumes people are rational actors and informed? When's the last time either has been true...

 

[Imp]

Woho... what the hell just happened. The British Pound just tanked against the USD to below $1.20 around 7:00pm EST. It's been sliding after they announced they were actually committed to Brexit like last week. It was around $1.26 around 6pm, now $1.23.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR

 

[Miramonti]

Woho... what the hell just happened. The British Pound just tanked against the USD to below $1.20 around 7:00pm EST. It's been sliding after they announced they were actually committed to Brexit like last week. It was around $1.26 around 6pm, now $1.23.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR

That can't be good for our exports to them.

 

[ponyo]

Added 1/4 more GLD and SLV today. Now I'm at 75% position. Let's see if we get a dead cat bounce next week.