***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[repoman0]

I pulled a lot of money out of stocks today to park it in intermediate term bonds, so at least it's earning something. It's starting to feel like there's a lot of short term risk (real or perceived) and I may want to use it to put a down payment on a house within the next year or two.

 

[us3rnotfound]

I pulled a lot of money out of stocks today to park it in intermediate term bonds, so at least it's earning something. It's starting to feel like there's a lot of short term risk (real or perceived) and I may want to use it to put a down payment on a house within the next year or two.

Same here except cash for me...any specific bond funds that you invested in?

Sent from my HTC One M9 using Tapatalk

 

[repoman0]

Same here except cash for me...any specific bond funds that you invested in?

Sent from my HTC One M9 using Tapatalk

All Vanguard BND. BSV was an option too but then you might as well throw it in one of those 1% online savings accounts.

 

[dullard]

All Vanguard BND. BSV was an option too but then you might as well throw it in one of those 1% online savings accounts.

Do note that you should be weary of those as well. Bond funds do not have the stability that people think of when they think of individual bonds. If you hold an individual bond to maturity then you get a guaranteed gain (assuming you didn't invest in a junk bond or similar that goes bust). If you hold a bond fund, then the value of the fund will often go down when interest rates go up (or even if there is fear that interest rates will go up soon).

We are in a situation where interest rates are likely to rise in the next few months. BND lost 6.5% around the beginning of 2013 just out of fear of interest rate rises. BND lost 4% at the beginning of 2015 for the same reason. BND has lost 1.5% in the last 2 weeks, again for the same reason.

There are no real great alternatives at the moment. You could do a stable value fund and maybe get ~2%. But those are murky, high fee, and riddled with traps if you get the wrong one. High dividend stocks are too pricey. Junk bonds are too dangerous. Short term treasuries aren't yielding much. CDs aren't paying much more than 1%. Really an online account with a guaranteed return (albeit small) might be your best bet if you want to be conservative and need the money in a year or so.

 

[repoman0]

Do note that you should be weary of those as well. Bond funds do not have the stability that people think of when they think of individual bonds. If you hold an individual bond to maturity then you get a guaranteed gain (assuming you didn't invest in a junk bond or similar that goes bust). If you hold a bond fund, then the value of the fund will often go down when interest rates go up (or even if there is fear that interest rates will go up soon).

We are in a situation where interest rates are likely to rise in the next few months. BND lost 6.5% around the beginning of 2013 just out of fear of interest rate rises. BND lost 4% at the beginning of 2015 for the same reason. BND has lost 1.5% in the last 2 weeks, again for the same reason.

There are no real great alternatives at the moment. You could do a stable value fund and maybe get ~2%. But those are murky, high fee, and riddled with traps if you get the wrong one. High dividend stocks are too pricey. Junk bonds are too dangerous. Short term treasuries aren't yielding much. CDs aren't paying much more than 1%. Really an online account with a guaranteed return (albeit small) might be your best bet if you want to be conservative and need the money in a year or so.

Good info, thank you. Maybe it is smart to go with an online savings account after all ...

 

[Imp]

Surprise! No rate hike.

Bla bla, might be one this year. My money's on December for credibility and credibility alone.

Can't destroy the markets before the election and help Trump win...

There's a video.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/21/feds-yellen-i-would-expect-to-see-a-rate-hike-this-year.html

 

[dullard]

Can't destroy the markets before the election and help Trump win...

After the fed was absolutely slaughtered by the way it handled interest rates during H.W. Bush's second election, the fed is VERY shy about raising rates during an election. I don't have a subscription so I haven't read this, but the headline is all that is needed:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB904002475770183000

Note: the fed often lowers rates during an election. http://www.gailfosler.com/federal-reserve-presidential-election-cycle

Rate rises that are quite necessary have often been postponed until December/January the next year.

 

[ponyo]

After the fed was absolutely slaughtered by raising rates during H.W. Bush's second election, the fed is VERY shy about raising rates during an election. I don't have a subscription so I haven't read this, but the headline is all that is needed:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB904002475770183000

Note: the fed often lowers rates during an election. http://www.gailfosler.com/federal-reserve-presidential-election-cycle

Rate rises that are quite necessary have often been postponed until December/January the next year.

You don't need subscription to WSJ. Just copy and google search the article headline and click from the search result. You should then be able to see any subscription article in full.

 

[FelixDeCat]

TWTR - a perennial loser with a dismal track record of market performance, survives only on rumored buy out offers floated by unknown sources or supposed "deal insiders". Once "market participants" (like Goldman) stop pulling the same scheme over and over with the SAME STOCK about a TWTR buyout for the 100th time now, TWTR will likely go under $10.

Why doesnt the SEC investigate the sources of these near quarterly TWTR buyout offers? Salesforce (another phoney baloney) has no use for TWTR and neither does GOOG. Yet these rumors are taken seriously.

August 2016, yet another TWTR buyout rumor:

San Francisco, California-based Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) shares have jumped by over 10% in the last two days, on the back of yet another round of buyout rumors. This time around, rumors have it that ex-CEO of Microsoft, Steve Ballmer, and Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal could be looking to take the microblogging giant private.

Back in June 2016, yet another buyout rumor:

Analysts expect tech behemoths like Facebook (FB - Free Report) , Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) and Apple (AAPL - Free Report) to be the most probable suitors. Recently, there were reports that Twitter and Yahoo (YHOO) had held talks for a probable merger a few months back.

Here is one for March 2016:

(TWTR) is seeing a big-volume day this afternoon, up following rehashed rumors that Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG) could be preparing to buy the microblogging platform.

Even more for 2015.

 

[Imp]

Hoochy Mama... Deutsche Bank down below € 11.00 (note to self, Euro symbol: alt + 0128). It's only gone around € 11.30 before. New low! Go Lehman II!

"News" sites saying because of articles saying Germany won't help them -- no surprise considering they're ripping the balls off Greece and Italy. Meh, ECB will bail them all out eventually even if they have to print themselves into the ground.

 

[Billb2]

I pulled a lot of money out of stocks today to park it in intermediate term bonds, so at least it's earning something. It's starting to feel like there's a lot of short term risk (real or perceived) and I may want to use it to put a down payment on a house within the next year or two.

Same her on 10/20/16, but t-bills.

 

[FelixDeCat]

So today, UBS gets the TWTR party started by downgrading the stock and setting the price target to $17. This is, of course, a set up for the NEXT buyout rumor.

 

[ponyo]

So today, UBS gets the TWTR party started by downgrading the stock and setting the price target to $17. This is, of course, a set up for the NEXT buyout rumor.

I think this time the buyout rumor is real. Why? RBC downgraded Twitter on Friday with price target of $14. Which is strange given everything they said in the report is already known. Twitter is sucking ass. But it's strange the downgrade happened right after the video ad rigging scandal at Facebook came to light. Video is one thing that is going right at Twitter. So the news is positive for Twitter and they should benefit as some of ad dollars should now go to Twitter instead of Facebook now everyone knows Facebook was lying about their video ad performance. So the stock should've moved up on Friday morning instead of down. RBC downgrade moved the stock down in the early premarket Friday morning until the buyout rumor emerged which bolted the stock higher in the later premarket.

This morning, Oppenheimer comes out and shits on Twitter by downgrading from "perform" to "underperform". So these are back to back downgrades from RBC and Oppenheimer in two days. Now this is on a stock that has like 22 "hold" recommendation and only 4 "strong buy". Like I said, everyone knows Twitter is sucking ass. They didn't need to come out now and say it again and try to push the price down. So what's their motive? They didn't downgrade on the previous rumors. I think this new buyout rumor has legs and might actually have some substance. So maybe their trading desk is short and they're trying to cover at decent price. Or they have a client who wants to speculate on Twitter shares and wants to buy in cheap. Maybe it's combination of both. But something stinks and the timing of these quick downgrades tells me there is smoke. And where there is smoke, sometimes there is fire.

 

[FelixDeCat]

But Salesforce buying TWTR is ridiculous on its face. They only have a couple of billion in cash and to make even a $20 offer they would need to dilute, massively. And even if they did offer $20, it would be rejected as the IPO price was $24 so "investors" would want no less.

Salesfacrce buying TWTR is akin to Time Warner buying AOL. Its a gimmick, adds no value and would not work.

Don't worry though - you can REST ASSURED there will be another rumor once TWTR goes back below $17 and that too will not happen, yet it will be given 100% credibility.

 

[ponyo]

Most buyout and mergers are stupid and harmful. But bankers want to make money. Lawyers want to make money. They sweet talk the CEOs and flame their massive ego. So these CEOs do deals that doesn't make sense and is net negative for their companies to stroke their ego and chance at even bigger pay and glory. Never underestimate the stupidity of these CEOs and their need to feed their ego.

There is decent technical support around $21 for Twitter. I might buy some extra shares for a trade if it gets near that area.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Amen!! I give you Texas based TXU Energy as case in point. That is our local electric utility. They were ALWAYS profitable nearly every year of very long history, even while publically traded. Then one day TPG Capital and a few other vultures convinced management (it wasn't that hard), to take on TWENTY BILLION in debt and do a leveraged buyout.

Of course, the bottom fell out in energy with deregulation and TXU filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy a couple of years on.

Any company that borrowers money to buy back shares is stupid, much less leverage every asset - and then some - to buy itself out.

 

[FelixDeCat]

LOL LOL LOL

TWITER back up on rumors today that DISNEY wants to buy it.

WTF?!!!!

You know that's a bunch of horseshit. Disney. My ass!

And they could not even wait 24 hours before floating ANOTHER buyout rumor.

Where is the SEC?

 

[Imp]

^I just heard about the Disney one after market closing on TV. You'd think there would be rules against starting these bullshit rumors and that there wouldn't be so many suckers falling for them... But here we are.

What a sweat deal though: pump and dump AND short it on the way down.

 

[ponyo]

lol. Disney does own ESPN. And Twitter has the NFL Thursday night football broadcast deal. Video is the key to Twitter and its trump card. Because of the video platform, you can name any media company as potential Twitter buyer and you can't dismiss it 100% no matter how ridiculous.

Me? I"m enjoying the circus and the firework. I still have the core shares I bought on the buyout hope. The trading shares are gone. But if the price keeps going up, I'll put up the core shares for sale too and not stick around for the finish.

 

[Imp]

LOL LOL LOL

TWITER back up on rumors today that DISNEY wants to buy it.

WTF?!!!!

You know that's a bunch of horseshit. Disney. My ass!

And they could not even wait 24 hours before floating ANOTHER buyout rumor.

Where is the SEC?

Microsoft was already floated last week, but hey, here it is again and it merited a new article, apparently.

May be video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/26/microsoft-seen-as-possible-twitter-bidder-source.html

 

[turtile]

So basically, no one is buying Twitter. I don't think the stock has fallen low enough to enable anyone to buy it (and make use of it).

 

[FelixDeCat]

Someone in the rumor boiler room needs to be FIRED!

TWTR is down a buck and no one is floating ANOTHER buyout rumor to get the price up.

 

[Imp]

Someone in the rumor boiler room needs to be FIRED!

TWTR is down a buck and no one is floating ANOTHER buyout rumor to get the price up.

You're raging about the wrong thing.

Headline: "Oil jumps after report OPEC reaches deal to limit oil output in November"

Oil prices rose as much as 6 percent on Wednesday on a report that OPEC members have reached a deal to limit oil supply.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/27/oil-prices-climb-after-industry-data-shows-us-stocks-draw.html

On a "report." Like the few dozen other "reports" in the past year? When I checked oil prices around noon, they were flat. When I checked again around 3:00pm, LOLOLOL DEAL REACHED LOLOLOL 5% JUMP...TROLOLOL.

They just reported yesterday that Saudi Arabia and Iran wouldn't agree due to deep seeded divisions. Last I heard, they were fighting a proxy war in Yemen.


Oh, and Blackberry ain't making their own Blackberries no more. Go go job cuts to the entire hardware divison.

https://www.thestar.com/business/20...are-development-in-major-strategic-shift.html

 

[ponyo]

Now the 9/11 bill has become law, I'm curious if Saudis will follow through with their previous threat to sell US treasury and US stock holdings.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...verride-obama-veto-of-saudi-9-11-lawsuit-bill

 

[FelixDeCat]

Now the 9/11 bill has become law, I'm curious if Saudis will follow through with their previous threat to sell US treasury and US stock holdings.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...verride-obama-veto-of-saudi-9-11-lawsuit-bill

I too think it was stupid to get this bill passed. It was nothing but greed. The 9/11 families were compensated millions of dollars by American taxpayers. Now they want even more from Saudi Arabia in some half backed scheme to get it.