***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[ImpulsE69]

Which is why its foolish to go against the flow. Just play the game.

I bought some Whiting Petroleum (WLL). Credit Suisse says its worth $12. I bought at $7.80.

I've been watching it. It did really good today, but it is pretty volitile day to day....not sure about holding it long term, but great for scalps if you watch.

 

[JEDI]

I've been watching it. It did really good today, but it is pretty volitile day to day....not sure about holding it long term, but great for scalps if you watch.

oil climbing today! $45.50/barrel

 

[Imp]

Bank of Canada decided to hold rate at 0.50%. Some bullshit about how the trade deficit improved -- it went from horrible bad $4.0 billion to just really bad $2.5 billion. Last year, $3.0 million was horrible bad.

But hey, record sales numbers for homes in Toronto. Lost 36,000 jobs last month in the province? No problem, let's trade each other more houses. GM or Chrysler may be closing a production line just outside Toronto because who can compete with $25/day Mexicans when Canadians get ~$20/hour. Who cares... Buy more houses!

Edit: Reading comments about "great" real estate sales. Common logic is that the longer a bubble doesn't pop, the greater the chance it will never pop. I'm sure this is a "permanently high plateau" as well... And any correction will only be 20%. Why 20%? Because. Reversion to the mean, what the hell is that?

 

[Charmonium]

Reversion to the mean, what the hell is that?

Not sure if you were asking about this seriously but - http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/meanreversion.asp

It's a pretty simple idea. No matter how high or low prices go, the natural tendency is for them to gravitate back to the trend line or mean. Personally I think that's mostly a tautology since in the long run it's always going to be true barring some sort of apocalypse. But as the old Keynesian expression goes, in the long run, we'll all be dead.

Out of curiosity, I looked up Canada's top 10 exports - http://www.worldstopexports.com/canadas-top-exports/

By far the 2 biggest are oil and cars. I would have thought wood would have been a big one but that's pretty far down the list. Regardless, if the US consumer makes the comeback I think that they will, Canada should be able to ride the US's coat tails. The average age of a car in the US is 11.5 years as of last year - http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...-soaring-but-cars-getting-older-too/30821191/

So between that and new housing construction, Canada should see a surge in exports in the coming years.

 

[Imp]

^That last paragraph was loaded with sarcasm.

You should look at Canada's economy as a whole. Do add up all FIRE industries plus construction...
http://www.investorsfriend.com/canadian-gdp-canadian-imports-and-exports/

But more importantly, hey, no problem here, continue buying houses:

The survey released Wednesday by the Canadian Payroll Association found that 48 per cent of respondents said they rely on each payday to cover their bills, with 40 per cent admitting they spend an amount equal to all or more of their net pay each week.

There be video:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...aycheque-to-paycheque-survey/article31741113/

 

[alcoholbob]

The Canadian housing boom is just like the West Coast of the US--mostly driven by money from Asia.

Canada doesnt really have America's trade imbalance, but they are paying the price for it. All the outsourcing of US manufacturing over the last 30 years has caused a ballooning trade imbalance, and people dont like sitting on worthless IOUs--thus invariably that money from the US trade imbalance comes washing back in the form of real estate being bid up. This is why you go from the average joe in the West Coast buying able to buy a house with 2 years wages in the 1960s to now roughly 10-12 years.

 

[Charmonium]

^That last paragraph was loaded with sarcasm.

You should look at Canada's economy as a whole. Do add up all FIRE industries plus construction...
http://www.investorsfriend.com/canadian-gdp-canadian-imports-and-exports/

But more importantly, hey, no problem here, continue buying houses:



There be video:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...aycheque-to-paycheque-survey/article31741113/

I generally assume that you're being at least partially sarcastic, hence my caveat at the beginning. As I've said before, I don't know jack about Canada except what you post. I only looked at exports because that's what you were talking about and erroneously made the leap from that to overall economic conditions.

But there is still some truth in what I said. To the extent that Canada can export more, that will raise the value of their currency, improve your balance of trade and generally make life more pleasant since many goods will be cheaper. Of course the strength of the economy also factors into the value of the currency so just exporting more doesn't do jack if the rest of the economy is sucking moose dong.

The Canadian housing boom is just like the West Coast of the US--mostly driven by money from Asia.

Canada doesnt really have America's trade imbalance, but they are paying the price for it. All the outsourcing of US manufacturing over the last 30 years has caused a ballooning trade imbalance, and people dont like sitting on worthless IOUs--thus invariably that money from the US trade imbalance comes washing back in the form of real estate being bid up. This is why you go from the average joe in the West Coast buying able to buy a house with 2 years wages in the 1960s to now roughly 10-12 years.

I think that's starting to change but I'm not sure to what degree.

Now that China has a developing middle class and wages are rising, the cost of Chinese goods are increasing. At the same time you have the US pumping more oil than Saudi Arabia which is bringing in incredible amounts of foreign reserves. So overall, our trade balance should be looking less and less negative if not positive.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I've been watching it. It did really good today, but it is pretty volitile day to day....not sure about holding it long term, but great for scalps if you watch.

I decided to take profits at $8.22. Would definitely buy back under $8.

 

[Imp]

^Uh ohs, API report side beaucoup crude draw down. They've been incredibly off compared to the EIA more than a few times.

Regardless, historic/seasonal trend is a build-up in storage from now to next spring.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Meh...no one ever lost money taking profits.

Im back in biotech for a quick buck.

 

[ImpulsE69]

Nice, as much as I've been watching WLL, I've missed every entry I wanted because I've been dealing with gold miners so much.

Today I had a nice surprise though in that my long bag holding on MGT finally took off and I made a nice 15% on it, and 3% on my whole portfolio.

 

[Imp]

Woot. Massive drawdown in crude = WTI up almost 5%!!!

Those whiny analysts are blaming some hurricane. How could a hurricane possibly stop ships carrying crude from docking...

Wonder how much of it was sitting on Hanjin ships.

 

[Charmonium]

Party like it's 1999 - can't believe no one has picked up on that line yet since it's the largest drop in crude inventories since then.

Draghi talked down the need for monetary easing so that harshed everyone's sugar buzz.

 

[Imp]

Here, this is all I remember of the year 1999, other than Y2K:
https://youtu.be/VT_GG7q3vhs

 

[Ken g6]

Party like it's 1999

Looks like the century just turned.

 

[jpiniero]

zomg, another Fed guy talks about raising rates and boom goes the market.

 

[Imp]

^OMFG. Potential Fed rate hike. Like every other month prior to a hike. Then nothing and DXY tanks. Best pump and dump ever.

A 2% movement is the most action there's been in weeks...

 

[jpiniero]

^OMFG. Potential Fed rate hike. Like every other month prior to a hike. Then nothing and DXY tanks. Best pump and dump ever.

I dunno, sounds like they are seriously going to vote on raising it at the Sept meeting. It'll probably fail but even if it's close that could freak people out too.

 

[Imp]

^I want them to raise it. Bad. Because it'll finally turn this credit/business cycle over properly. I just have very very low expectations because we started the year with 4 expected hikes. There are only 3 FOMC meetings left this year.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Fucking Fed.

 

[jpiniero]

So one fucking bastard at the Fed gets to crash the market? Corrupt ass piece of shit. And you know Goldman was in on it.

I don't think they have much choice but to telegraph that they are serious about possibly raising it in September. The market's gonna selloff if they raise it, better that it's not all at once.

 

[Imp]

^There's also talk that the central banks may have finally realized their shit doesn't work. ECB and Japan running negative rates, hardcore QE. US holding QE, near zero rates. What do they get? Huge asset bubbles, shit real growth.

I wonder how Deutsche Bank is doing. Last I checked, they made $20 million in profit the prior quarter. And everyone thought they were, allegedly, insolvent or borderline.

And how's Monti dei Paschi.

So many banks... Only so many Lehmans.

 

[brianmanahan]

shiller PE is still at 26 - i wouldn't be surprised if this moves down to 20 or 15 over the next 10 years, and would in fact be relieved

hence the predictions that US stock returns will only be about %1-2 real in the next decade

 

[Charmonium]

^There's also talk that the central banks may have finally realized their shit doesn't work. ECB and Japan running negative rates, hardcore QE. US holding QE, near zero rates. What do they get? Huge asset bubbles, shit real growth.

The fed is painfully aware of the mistake Greenspan made in keeping rates too low for too long. They may end up making a similar mistake but they won't end up making the same mistake. I've got to give Yellen more credit than that.

So far she's been right about keeping rates low to boost the participation rate. From Aug of '15 to now, the rate is up almost a half of a percentage point - despite the dip earlier in the summer - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

But the closer we get to NAIRU, the more the fed has to worry about wage inflation, which we've already seen in some sectors. There's also the credibility issue you've pointed out. With a predicted 4 rate hikes this year, it's almost de rigueur that we get at least one more this year. Although honestly, I don't think anyone expects one before the election.

shiller PE is still at 26 - i wouldn't be surprised if this moves down to 20 or 15 over the next 10 years, and would in fact be relieved

hence the predictions that US stock returns will only be about %1-2 real in the next decade

By Shiller you mean CAPE? I think that's based on historical averages and since the recession we've been pretty far from the mean in terms of those. With rates as low as they have been, very low returns can support pretty rich valuations. Hopefully that's not going to follow Japan's lead where this goes on indefinitely.

Govts around the world are starting to realize that you need to have a fiscal component to support your monetary policy. One w/o the other can only do so much. Hence the concept of helicopter money. But I don't think we need to go to that extreme. Here in the US, we have plenty of work to do on infrastructure and a new building boom like we saw in the 50's with the interstate highway program would not only serve to revamp our wobbly infrastructure but give give the economy the shot of intravenous meth it needs.

 

[jpiniero]

The fed is painfully aware of the mistake Greenspan made in keeping rates too low for too long. They may end up making a similar mistake but they won't end up making the same mistake. I've got to give Yellen more credit than that.

Rates have been too low for too long, that ship is sailed. I think raising the rates would help the economy but you are risking a stock market crash.