***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Ugh, I don't know, I can't bring myself to buy gold/silver, even through an ETF like GLD. The downside risk just bugs me.

So, China is almost done filling their strategic reserve. But who gives a fuck, QE QE QE QE QE Qe QE QE QE NIRP NIRP NIRP NIRP ZIRP ZIRp ZIRP ZIRP ZIRP ZIRP QEQQ EQEQEQE QEQEQEQE.

China is likely close to filling its strategic petroleum reserves after doubling purchases for it this year as prices plunged, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts...

...At the current rate of stockpiling, the storage would fill up by August, leading to a potential import drop in September.

Might be a video:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...re-because-china-s-almost-done-amassing-crude

Throw that into the pile of who gives a shit: European banks failing, slowing global economy, rising delinquencies. S&P 500 to 2500 by year's end!

 

[Artdeco]

My SWHC up over 14% now...

 

[Charmonium]

Ugh, I don't know, I can't bring myself to buy gold/silver, even through an ETF like GLD. The downside risk just bugs me.

You can rationalize it if you buy gold collectibles. Part of the value will be in the metal and part in the provenance. This way even if the metal price tanks, the items will still retain part of their value and in the long run, due to rarity, the price should go up - over the long term. In the short term, you might experience some paper loses but over say 5-10 years, you should be fine.

 

[holden j caufield]

silver has been on a tear. I think uslv was $15 -16 ish before the Brexit and now it's $25 wtf.

 

[FelixDeCat]

silver has been on a tear. I think uslv was $15 -16 ish before the Brexit and now it's $25 wtf.

NUGT also hit $145 on Friday!!!

I would have loved to own USLV however I've decided to stay away from all leveraged ETF's at the moment because the SEC is about to implement new rules before the end of Obamas term in January.

Mary Jo Whitehead, chair of the SEC, intends to limit leverage to no more than 1.5x times assets for mutual funds and ETFs.

This change could put all double and triple levered ETFs in jeopardy. I dont know what will happen under the new rules but Im afraid of waking up one day and trading in NUGT / USLV will be halted for good. The leveraged ETF fund industry is trying to stop the change so the next administration can make up its own mind.

Lots of stories about the rule change -

https://www.google.com/search?q=sec+rule+change+levered+etfs&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

 

[Imp]

You can rationalize it if you buy gold collectibles. Part of the value will be in the metal and part in the provenance. This way even if the metal price tanks, the items will still retain part of their value and in the long run, due to rarity, the price should go up - over the long term. In the short term, you might experience some paper loses but over say 5-10 years, you should be fine.

I can't get over the fact that I may get murdered over some stupid shiny round metal items in my home that are worth more than most people make in a week.

 

[ponyo]

You can rationalize it if you buy gold collectibles. Part of the value will be in the metal and part in the provenance. This way even if the metal price tanks, the items will still retain part of their value and in the long run, due to rarity, the price should go up - over the long term. In the short term, you might experience some paper loses but over say 5-10 years, you should be fine.

I do not recommend this to anyone starting out. Collectible market requires lot of knowledge and is best left up to the pros or later after you gain the knowledge and experience. Novice should steer clear of collectibles and numismatics and just stick with plain bullion for its metal value.

I'm not buying metals here. I don't like to chase, and I already bought plenty at lower levels prior to the breakout on the pullback. But I'm not selling here either. I think we'll see even higher prices and shorts and nonbelievers will continue to be squeezed.

 

[ponyo]

I can't get over the fact that I may get murdered over some stupid shiny round metal items in my home that are worth more than most people make in a week.

Why would you get murdered over metals? And who says you have to keep it at your home? Do you worry you might be murdered over some stupid paper in your home or at a bank? Perhaps you need to see a shrink for your paranoia.

 

[Charmonium]

I can't get over the fact that I may get murdered over some stupid shiny round metal items in my home that are worth more than most people make in a week.

That's what safe deposit boxes are for. It's something you should probably have anyway to keep any important papers or other valuables. Most things are digital today and aside from a will I can't really think of any important papers that I have but you must have some valuable and/or inherited items that you would want to keep safe.

In terms of what you should pay for collectibles, I don't think you need to be an expert. I think if you look at the historical and current prices for an item you can get an idea of what part of a valuation is metal and what part is provenance.

The only thing I would worry about is the fact that a lot of boomer dying and/or liquidating their collections could result in greater supply for the next 20 years or so. So you might get peaks and valleys in the price of certain things. But as a general rule, things that are rare don't get less rare with time.

The other concern is cyclicality. Collectible markets tend to rise and fall with economic conditions and can be overbid during economic expansions. There's even a semi serious art index that some people use to predict economic down turns since the price of collectibles tends to fall before the downturn is apparent.

 

[Imp]

Well, Australia fuxxor3d their election or something. No party has control of their government?

I thought their election was Sunday or right now, but sounds like it was Saturday.

This is important because there was talk about Australia's credit rating being lowered. Good luck dealing with that and a giant housing bubble that's showing signs of topping. But who cares, Hong Kong's housing bubble popped almost a year ago and everything's still kicking there.

 

[holden j caufield]

after brexit happened gold/silver popped as kind of a safe zone from stocks. Stocks recovered but gold and silver still kept popping up each and everyday. Not sure what to make of it.

 

[Charmonium]

after brexit happened gold/silver popped as kind of a safe zone from stocks. Stocks recovered but gold and silver still kept popping up each and everyday. Not sure what to make of it.

I don't know but . . . . I think it probably has to do with the reduced probability of a fed rate hike.

The longer the fed maintains a dovish monetary policy, the greater the danger of inflation - or so the popular thinking goes. That's what let gold go up to $1900 an ounce a few years ago. You'd think people would have learned their lesson after that but apparently not.

The market was anticipating 2 rate hikes this year, one back in March and one probably in December. Now the market seems to be implying that there won't be another hike until almost 2018.

 

[Imp]

^Last I saw, the "analyst" or "economist" rate hike probabilities for the rest of the year were close to zero. The probabilities for rate CUTS may have been higher.

Gold to $10,000 yo.

 

[Charmonium]

I don't think there's any need to cut, barring any black swans of course. The markets are mostly back to the trendline with the exception maybe of financials. I think the fed might cut if we suddenly had a bear market, which is what, 20% decline? But only the permabears believe that will happen.

 

[Imp]

Does a cut even do anything at this point? Seriously, the rate is officially 0.25% to 0.50%, but it's actually around 0.38%. If ~8 years of 0% to 0.25% and QE ended up with us here, what could it possibly do now?

...This is exactly why I found it hilarious when the Bank of England governor said he's considering cutting. Lol, you're at 0.50% and have been there for a while. The EU is only down to -0.4% -- no one appears to want to go lower.

 

[Charmonium]

Cutting the rate probably wouldn't have much effect but QE could. QE essentially removes long dated securities from the market and forces that money into other risk assets. So it would almost certainly buoy the stock market.

I have a lot of my money in high yield funds which are loving the current climate. I'd love to see rates go lower since that would mean my stock would be worth more.

If the recovery ever really kicks into gear, I'm going to have to move several things around and I probably won't get the same money I get now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ruh roh.....DOW futures off 110.

 

[Artdeco]

Sold S&W, 13% gain in 2 weeks or so...

Also sold some more options on Stamps.com, had to buy some back, but at a profit, the strike price was 88 on them, too far out of my comfort zone...

 

[FelixDeCat]

I told you guys this Brexit thing had legs. I say we retouch the lows of last week. In the meantime Silver passed $20 today!

 

[Imp]

What assploded today? Did "concerns about Brexit" spring up again?

 

[ponyo]

What assploded today? Did "concerns about Brexit" spring up again?

Let's see. 1) Three UK property funds, M&G, Aviva and Standard Life, froze $12 billion from any redemption for at least 28 days because they don't have enough immediate funds to repay their investors. 2) UK Pound dropped to lowest level in 31 years against the dollar. 3) Italy bans short selling of Banca Monte dei Paschi Siena - Italy's 3rd largest bank til the end of tomorrow. 4) 50 yr bonds in Switzerland now has negative rates. Seven countries now have negative yields on 9yr bonds: Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Austria, and France.

But don't worry. Central banks will intervene and we'll see new highs soon.

 

[ponyo]

I told you guys this Brexit thing had legs. I say we retouch the lows of last week. In the meantime Silver passed $20 today!

Silver passed $21 late Sunday/early Monday morning before falling back. Silver is consolidating its recent run up for the next leg higher. I expect $24 or higher in the coming months.

 

[Imp]

Uh ohs... People appear to be trying to get their money out of dodge and the funds can't handle it.

The property funds barring withdrawals included M&G Investments, which runs a £4.4bn property fund, and Aviva Investors, whose fund has assets worth £1.8bn.

The moves came one day after Standard Life banned its clients from doing the same on its £2.9bn property fund, with the firms saying they had acted to stop a rush of withdrawals following “extraordinary market circumstances”.

There be video, yo:
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ing-in-its-property-fund-brexit-standard-life

Then throw in Italy's banks that are imploding and too big to fail, Deutsche Bank, and....

Let's also completely forget that a bunch of countries in the EU have housing with exorbitant price-rent and price-income ratios.

 

[Charmonium]

 

[ponyo]

Gold is continuing its climb and is getting close to $1400 USD. Gold just broke the all time high in Australian dollars today. It's currently $1,844 AUD for 1 troy ounce of gold. That's higher than in 2011. Gold is very close to all time high in Canadian dollar too. It's currently $1782 CAD. I think the all time high was barely over $1800 CAD back in 2011.

I think the Chinese are buying.