***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[dullard]

Market opportunity appears mostly passed. Anything interesting to look at that hasn't strongly rebounded yet?

I'm still interested in getting some pounds. They haven't rebounded much yet. But it is also not easy to get your hands on it. The institutional investors sold it in electronic format which dropped the price, but individual investors buy it in paper format - which there isn't enough stock of at the moment to actually get. Orders for pounds were being cancelled recently. I don't know if that has been fixed yet.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Shorting metals long term right now is a VERY bad idea. Yeah, you might get lucky and make a dime intraday. Enjoy it. And don't spend it all in one place.

But to say your thesis for shorting Silver is that "its 'long term' value is $5, short it!!" ...without understanding the underlying reasons for its recent rise from $12 to $18.5 (a 50% increase), is uniformed ...to put it mildly.

After the 1980 boom, the average for gold was $300 an ounce, before that $50 and even $20 during the turn of the century. Do you honestly think I would make money shorting gold from $1311 to $20 because it traded there once? LOL!!! LOL I say!

This is a free market and you are free to do as you wish....but Im am so confident Silver will trade over $20 an ounce this year I have decided to own it physically using healthcare dollars at work. The average purchase price is $4 per ounce.

Dyarr.

 

[Miramonti]

I'm still interested in getting some pounds. They haven't rebounded much yet. But it is also not easy to get your hands on it. The institutional investors sold it in electronic format which dropped the price, but individual investors buy it in paper format - which there isn't enough stock of at the moment to actually get. Orders for pounds were being cancelled recently. I don't know if that has been fixed yet.

Interesting. There are some etf for the british pounds and here are a couple:

FXB
GBB

However GBB isn't very liquid so FXB would be the best option of these two.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Also, Im afraid this little stock market rally is going to end and will retouch the lows of a few days ago. Sure it was probably an over reaction to the news of a two year Brexit process that is now underway, but NOW we know that this market is not as good as people think and a typical summer selloff on low volume will most likely occur.

 

[Imp]

Also, Im afraid this little stock market rally is going to end and will retouch the lows of a few days ago. Sure it was probably an over reaction to the news of a two year Brexit process that is now underway, but NOW we know that this market is not as good as people think and a typical summer selloff on low volume will most likely occur.

You leave that negative shit out of here... The market is amazing, yo. Rise forever. QE4 is just around the corner, stock buy-backs will keep going. No stock market will ever be allowed to fall again!

And negative interest rates will be everywhere. Fuck you, pension funds and risk averse savers! Borrow more! Buy more useless shit!

 

[FelixDeCat]

You leave that negative shit out of here... The market is amazing, yo. Rise forever. QE4 is just around the corner, stock buy-backs will keep going. No stock market will ever be allowed to fall again!

And negative interest rates will be everywhere. Fuck you, pension funds and risk averse savers! Borrow more! Buy more useless shit!

"Oh Im afraid the deflector shield will be quite operational when your friends arrive." :sneaky:

 

[Imp]

Well, that's interesting. I went to check Deutsche Bank's stock and it hasn't followed the general market up.

Another fuck you to the failing banks in Europe from the record low interest rate environment that lowers certain income sources...

 

[edro]

I have decided to own it physically using healthcare dollars at work. The average purchase price is $4 per ounce.

wat

 

[Miramonti]

My wayward guess is that the market will be in a much better position at the end of the year than it is now. This rally seems pretty healthy and an uncertain Europe makes the US market preferable in comparison, a 'flight to quality' of sorts. That's not to say it's not going to give any of this rally back at some point, but I don't see it nearing the lows of a few days ago, and I think it would then continue upward.

 

[Imp]

My wayward guess is that the market will be in a much better position at the end of the year than it is now. This rally seems pretty healthy and an uncertain Europe makes the US market preferable in comparison, a 'flight to quality' of sorts. That's not to say it's not going to give any of this rally back at some point, but I don't see it nearing the lows of a few days ago, and I think it would then continue upward.

Home country/continent bias suggests that people are just dumping money into bonds. German 10-year Bund is now yielding -0.10%.

Edit: And EU credit rating got downgraded. Considering their shitty economy, this one might matter more than the UK's downgrade.

There be a video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/30/sp-revises-european-union-credit-rating-to-aa-from-aa.html

 

[Miramonti]

Home country/continent bias suggests that people are just dumping money into bonds. German 10-year Bund is now yielding -0.10%.

And I wish them luck.

 

[Charmonium]

While we're on it, Trump. He definitely can unilaterally do things but two houses and the Supreme Court can keep him in check. How much has Obummer really done since Congress turned Republican? But omfg, fear fear fear, end of da world.

You're not counting the fact that a crazy ass pres could easily start another war. Sure, congress holds the purse strings but that doesn't count for much once the battle has begun. Just look at Vietnam.

My wayward guess is that the market will be in a much better position at the end of the year than it is now. This rally seems pretty healthy and an uncertain Europe makes the US market preferable in comparison, a 'flight to quality' of sorts. That's not to say it's not going to give any of this rally back at some point, but I don't see it nearing the lows of a few days ago, and I think it would then continue upward.

I agree with you on that. Although it's becoming harder to justify current multiples, I don't see anything on the horizon that is horribly negative. If anything, housing should start to see a resurgence since there is still huge pent up demand. And housing is what normally leads us out of recessions.

 

[Imp]

You're not counting the fact that a crazy ass pres could easily start another war. Sure, congress holds the purse strings but that doesn't count for much once the battle has begun. Just look at Vietnam.

Definitely possible, but even with Iraq and Afghanistan, the administration got the approval/ambivalence of numerous foreign countries -- doubt anyone in Europe could even afford a war right now. Congress and Senate authorized funding in Iraq/Afghanistan -- neither really support Trump, even on the Republican side.

But all that's ignoring the fact that Trump's pissed off the Latino and African-American vote -- even one of CNN's biggest Republican cheerleaders who is a Latina got angry at Trump a while back. Good luck winning anything without even a bit of their support. Best of luck winning after pissing them off and having them come out in large numbers on voting day.

 

[jpiniero]

My wayward guess is that the market will be in a much better position at the end of the year than it is now.

This 'rally' is only as healthy as how willing the Fed is willing to pump it.

 

[FelixDeCat]

This 'rally' is only as healthy as how willing the Fed is willing to pump it.

We need to raise rates. Now.

We have been on "emergency" rates since 2007. There is nothing wrong, just bunches of drama queens and crybabies. :'(

 

[Imp]

We need to raise rates. Now.

We have been on "emergency" rates since 2007. There is nothing wrong, just bunches of drama queens and crybabies. :'(

Pffff... Raise rates? Lulz. Why do that? Negative rates is what the cool kids do now. It's been working great in the EU and Japan.

Edit: Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.... Chinese economic numbers as good as ever. Nothing to worry about here, pump those stock markets up because QE + negative rates + stock buybacks. Yaaaaa.

The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a survey that tracks the health of large and state-owned companies, came in at 50.0 for last month, versus 50.1 logged in May and April.

Focus is now on the June release of Caixin's China manufacturing PMI...

The index, which tracks smaller-scale private firms than the official gauge, reported a 49.2 reading in May and has been mired below the 50-level since the start of the year.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/30/china-official-june-manufacturing-pmi-declines-slightly-from-may.html

 

[Kwatt]

We need to raise rates. Now.

We have been on "emergency" rates since 2007. There is nothing wrong, just bunches of drama queens and crybabies. :'(

Brexit is a perfect excuse not to raise rates. It is going to drawn out and no "data dependences".

I wager a $1 that the next meeting will bring that up when "no rate hike" is confirmed.

.

 

[Imp]

Brexit is a perfect excuse not to raise rates. It is going to drawn out and no "data dependences".

Google "Italy bank bailout." It may be related to Brexit.

And Caixin China PMI came in... An acceleration in contraction. Sounds good.

Caixin's China June manufacturing PMI, which tracks smaller-scale private firms compared to the official gauge, also recorded the fastest rate of deterioration in four months. The index reported a 48.6 reading for June, compared with 49.2 in May.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/30/china-official-june-manufacturing-pmi-declines-slightly-from-may.html

 

[Miramonti]

Brexit is a perfect excuse not to raise rates. It is going to drawn out and no "data dependences".

I wager a $1 that the next meeting will bring that up when "no rate hike" is confirmed.

.

And in an election year, I suspect there would be fear of a negative stock market response, thus preferring to leave it on the next president's legacy.

 

[Charmonium]

QE - to infinity and beyond!!!

 

[Kwatt]

YIf anything, housing should start to see a resurgence since there is still huge pent up demand.

Yep. Given that Wells Fargo has come up with "new" mortgage option. Only 3% down and a credit score of 620. If you have teenagers at home they will even count their income from their after school job!

And let us not forget the “Lite Doc” plan. 2 months employment verification for a 5 year adjustable!

Why has nobody thought of this before?
/s


.

 

[KB]

Yep. Given that Wells Fargo has come up with "new" mortgage option. Only 3% down and a credit score of 620. If you have teenagers at home they will even count their income from their after school job!

And let us not forget the “Lite Doc” plan. 2 months employment verification for a 5 year adjustable!

Why has nobody thought of this before?
/s


.

Wake me when they start giving Ninja loans again, then i can short the market. I think relaxing lending standards is a good thing and will help bring home ownership back. Just as long as they dont overdue it.

 

[Imp]

The hell happened with silver? Popped over 5% today.

Regardless, carry on, all. Buy buy buy, everything is awesome. I mean, Deutsche Bank may be in the process of going Lehman, same with Italy's banks. Deutsche has $55 trillion in derivatives or something. Keep buying, all is good.

Second quarter just ended, too bad we'll have to wait 2 more months until we get a new reading on delinquencies from the Fed.

 

[ponyo]

The hell happened with silver? Popped over 5% today.

Regardless, carry on, all. Buy buy buy, everything is awesome. I mean, Deutsche Bank may be in the process of going Lehman, same with Italy's banks. Deutsche has $55 trillion in derivatives or something. Keep buying, all is good.

Second quarter just ended, too bad we'll have to wait 2 more months until we get a new reading on delinquencies from the Fed.

Silver being silver. It's volatile metal compared to gold. Silver is up ~13% since Brexit, up over 23% for the month, and up 42% this year. Gold in comparison is up 26% this year. After this breakout, I expect some consolidation around $19 for silver, but I don't expect it to drop below $18.50 since that was former resistance which will now become support. If silver breaks through $20, it shouldn't have much resistance til $23-24 range. But who really knows.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Shorting metals long term right now is a VERY bad idea. Yeah, you might get lucky and make a dime intraday. Enjoy it. And don't spend it all in one place.

But to say your thesis for shorting Silver is that "its 'long term' value is $5, short it!!" ...without understanding the underlying reasons for its recent rise from $12 to $18.5 (a 50% increase), is uniformed ...to put it mildly.

After the 1980 boom, the average for gold was $300 an ounce, before that $50 and even $20 during the turn of the century. Do you honestly think I would make money shorting gold from $1311 to $20 because it traded there once? LOL!!! LOL I say!

This is a free market and you are free to do as you wish....but Im am so confident Silver will trade over $20 an ounce this year I have decided to own it physically using healthcare dollars at work. The average purchase price is $4 per ounce.