***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[JEDI]

Oil back up to $38.

short oil now!
mortgage everything and buy dwti!

 

[Charmonium]

Iron ore rose the most ever recorded.

 

[JEDI]

Iron ore rose the most ever recorded.

oh man.. cargo shipping (ships) must be imploding.
w/iron ore prices that high, it's cheaper to mine than import

 

[ponyo]

USD/CAD 1.33
AUD/USD 0.74
Oil $38

When oil fell below $30, USD/CAD over 1.4, and AUD/USD hit .69, I thought it was overdone.

Year to date:

Gold: +19.7%
Silver: +13.6%
Platinum: +12.6%
WTI Crude oil: -6.3%

Let's see if gold and silver can keep it up.

 

[Imp]

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!

China's exports fell 25.4 percent on-year in February, while imports declined 13.8 percent...

But don't worry!

In 2015, the holiday fell unusually late which meant that more of the pre-holiday rush to meet orders...

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/07/chin...inated-and-us-dollar-imports-and-exports.html

Ya, oil to $70 and S&P 500 to 2500 by June 2016!!!! Bad news is good news!

 

[FelixDeCat]

lol $40 oil

Here comes $2 gas again

 

[Imp]

Go go oil, go go everything! EIA said crude inventories rose 3.9 million barrels, but OMFG gasoline fell 4.5 million barrels! Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! Oil to $50!

Watch for the video...
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/08/oil-prices-dip-on-stronger-dollar-demand-concerns.html

Let's completely ignore the 10.4 million barrel build last week. From EIA, refineries usually 12 gallons of diesel and 19 gallons of gasoline from 42 gallons of crude. Hmmm... it's almost like everything balances out.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=327&t=9

 

[11thHour]

Go go oil, go go everything! EIA said crude inventories rose 3.9 million barrels, but OMFG gasoline fell 4.5 million barrels! Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! Oil to $50!

Watch for the video...
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/08/oil-prices-dip-on-stronger-dollar-demand-concerns.html

Let's completely ignore the 10.4 million barrel build last week. From EIA, refineries usually 12 gallons of diesel and 19 gallons of gasoline from 42 gallons of crude. Hmmm... it's almost like everything balances out.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=327&t=9

Wow what a bunch of homers.

 

[Imp]

Canada lost 2300 jobs in February and unemployment rose to 7.3%. Go back to last week or something and it was reported that Q4 last year's GDP was +0.2% or 0.8% annualized. Entire 2015 was 1.2%.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/february-jobs-advancer-1.3485603

What is it time for? Time for a RALLY!!! Canadian dollar way up! TSX is up! Buy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Cause signs of a shit economy are totally great.

 

[JEDI]

Canada lost 2300 jobs in February and unemployment rose to 7.3%. Go back to last week or something and it was reported that Q4 last year's GDP was +0.2% or 0.8% annualized. Entire 2015 was 1.2%.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/february-jobs-advancer-1.3485603

What is it time for? Time for a RALLY!!! Canadian dollar way up! TSX is up! Buy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Cause signs of a shit economy are totally great.

rsx has been on a tear lately as well.
coincidence?
Canadian prime minster in bed w/putin?

 

[ponyo]

Goldman backed away from their $20 oil call and changed it to $25-$45. They're still sticking with the $1,000 gold call. I have cash waiting in event of $20 oil and $1,000 gold.

 

[Charmonium]

Goldman backed away from their $20 oil call and changed it to $25-$45. They're still sticking with the $1,000 gold call. I have cash waiting in event of $20 oil and $1,000 gold.

Never believe anything that Golden Mansachs has to say. Think of them like Don King. Maybe some of the fights he organizes are on the level but you know damn well that not all of them are.

They know that what they say will move the markets. So if they have a big client(s) that want to short oil, they can service that client by coming out with an unduly pessimistic forecast. And that's assuming that they can no longer trade their own accounts. Although I'm sure they've found a way around that too.

 

[ponyo]

Never believe anything that Golden Mansachs has to say. Think of them like Don King. Maybe some of the fights he organizes are on the level but you know damn well that not all of them are.

They know that what they say will move the markets. So if they have a big client(s) that want to short oil, they can service that client by coming out with an unduly pessimistic forecast. And that's assuming that they can no longer trade their own accounts. Although I'm sure they've found a way around that too.

I don't place much weight on doublespeak from any analcyst. Especially from Goldman. Two things I've learned over 23 years of investing in the market: 1) Never trust analcyst. Especially from Goldman. 2) No one really knows.

 

[Imp]

Never believe anything that Golden Mansachs has to say. Think of them like Don King. Maybe some of the fights he organizes are on the level but you know damn well that not all of them are.

They know that what they say will move the markets. So if they have a big client(s) that want to short oil, they can service that client by coming out with an unduly pessimistic forecast. And that's assuming that they can no longer trade their own accounts. Although I'm sure they've found a way around that too.

On a related note...

Conspiracy-theory level rumor is that this rally is manufactured to allow the big banks to get out of oil companies -- banks have been putting aside money to cover coming oil related bankruptcies. Get suckers to buy into cheap oil company stocks so companies can raise equity to pay off their debts to the banks.

I want to say I don't believe it one bit... but come on. The shit they've been pulling off over the past two decades.

 

[Charmonium]

On a related note...

Conspiracy-theory level rumor is that this rally is manufactured to allow the big banks to get out of oil companies -- banks have been putting aside money to cover coming oil related bankruptcies. Get suckers to buy into cheap oil company stocks so companies can raise equity to pay off their debts to the banks.

I want to say I don't believe it one bit... but come on. The shit they've been pulling off over the past two decades.

I could believe that but about energy company debt rather than stock. I don't think anyone actually knows but the speculation I've heard is that some companies are still afloat only because of futures contracts they sold when the price was much higher. But that has to end soon I would think. Oil started dropping about 2 years ago. I'm sure there's some kind of market for futures going out several years. The question is how much of that hedging was more than 2 years.

Even in 2015 oil was as high as $70 and I think most of the producers were profitable at that price. I'm sure we'll find out soon enough.

 

[Kwatt]

On a related note...

Conspiracy-theory level rumor is that this rally is manufactured to allow the big banks to get out of oil companies -- banks have been putting aside money to cover coming oil related bankruptcies. Get suckers to buy into cheap oil company stocks so companies can raise equity to pay off their debts to the banks.

I want to say I don't believe it one bit... but come on. The shit they've been pulling off over the past two decades.

They could also issue new shares (new offering) to raise cash, use that to pay off the bank notes. If things go south the bank is clear and the shareholders are at the bottom of any liquidations.

Watch for oil co. issuing new shares and if they are not clear on what it is being used for be very careful. In the current situation I look at any new issue as a "Hail Mary" or to save the banks funds. If they save the bank it is happy and they can get another loan later. New share buyers can be got later.


.

 

[Charmonium]

I don't think that will happen.

About a third of the world’s publicly-traded oil companies are at high risk of going bankrupt this year, according to a new report out Tuesday. Consulting and audit firm Deloitte put out its findings after closely examining 500 publicly-traded oil and natural gas exploration and production companies worldwide. The threat these companies face is a result of crude prices hovering near 10-year lows, which has already prompted firms to slash their budgets and staff. The 175 or so companies most at risk have more than $150 billion in debt, according to Reuters’ report on the Deloitte study, and they’re having trouble generating cash given the decreased value of secondary stock offerings and asset sales.

http://fortune.com/2016/02/16/oil-companies-bankrupt/

 

[Kwatt]

I don't think that will happen.

http://fortune.com/2016/02/16/oil-companies-bankrupt/

trouble generating cash given the decreased value of secondary stock offerings and asset sales.

OK but I bet some of the banks would help them if they tried to.

They may have been trying.

.

 

[Imp]

trouble generating cash given the decreased value of secondary stock offerings and asset sales.

OK but I bet some of the banks would help them if they tried to.

They may have been trying.

.

Concerning the trouble generating cash part... maybe at WTI $30. But suddenly, everyone is proclaiming the end of low oil prices, the bottoming of oil, etc. Now the May contract for WTI is over $40. We wouldn't want to miss out on the rally or ride up, would we...

Meanwhile, EIA report of a 10 million barrel crude build the week prior and the 4-ish million barrel build this past week doesn't cause alarm. No, let's rally because gasoline stocks went down -- let's ignore the 8 million barrel gasoline stock build earlier in the year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-oil-eia-idUSL2N14X1ES20160113

 

[FelixDeCat]

Dont worry, back under $30 next week. :sneaky:

 

[Charmonium]

You never really know what traders are thinking. It's like watching a flock of starlings and trying to figure out what shape they're going to make next. It's both random and coordinated at the same time.

 

[Imp]

Lot of Canadian retailers dying over the past year or two... Article is looking at why it's happening.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadian-retailers-closing-1.3485248

Oh, I don't know, record Canadian debt-to-income hit 1.65 or 1.70 depending on the source. Maybe they're tapped out, especially with paying their mortgages in one of the biggest bubbles in the world.

 

[ponyo]

Anyone brave or crazy enough to touch Valeant (VRX)? I see that stock and I keep thinking back to Worldcom and Enron. Some of the same analysts who had previously pumped Valeant are now lowering the price targets by much as $100 and jumping away like rats on a sinking ship.

It's getting ugly. Valeant is down another $31 and change today to $37.46. This might be the trade that buries Bill Ackman.

 

[OverVolt]

Canada lost 2300 jobs in February and unemployment rose to 7.3%. Go back to last week or something and it was reported that Q4 last year's GDP was +0.2% or 0.8% annualized. Entire 2015 was 1.2%.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/february-jobs-advancer-1.3485603

What is it time for? Time for a RALLY!!! Canadian dollar way up! TSX is up! Buy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Cause signs of a shit economy are totally great.

Lmao <3

 

[OverVolt]

On a related note...

Conspiracy-theory level rumor is that this rally is manufactured to allow the big banks to get out of oil companies -- banks have been putting aside money to cover coming oil related bankruptcies. Get suckers to buy into cheap oil company stocks so companies can raise equity to pay off their debts to the banks.

I want to say I don't believe it one bit... but come on. The shit they've been pulling off over the past two decades.

Nah, markets are just crazy.