***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[theeedude]

I bought some QQQ puts over last few days and this morning. Not bad. If it bounces, I'll buy some SPY puts too, I want the whole menagerie

 

[Imp]

Interdasting... not?

Imperial Oil -- think Exxon owns them -- in Canada had a big drop in profits.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/imperial-oil-q4-profit-plunges-1.3430033

Exxon and BP didn't do great either, more so BP:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/03/business/energy-environment/oil-company-earnings.html?_r=0

I don't see any reason for the Saudis to stop doing what they're doing now. Shit is really starting to hit the fan despite all the cuts.

 

[sm625]

I bought some QQQ puts over last few days and this morning. Not bad. If it bounces, I'll buy some SPY puts too, I want the whole menagerie

Just out of curiosity what drives you to buy puts now? I am getting some extremely bullish reads all across the market right now. My own indicator is screaming bullish. The OIL play that I laid out in post #24 has met my preconditions for a potential February run. OIL June $5 calls are only 55 cents and could easily be a 10 bagger. There are a lot of reason not to be bearish in the short term.

 

[theeedude]

Just out of curiosity what drives you to buy puts now? I am getting some extremely bullish reads all across the market right now. My own indicator is screaming bullish. The OIL play that I laid out in post #24 has met my preconditions for a potential February run. OIL June $5 calls are only 55 cents and could easily be a 10 bagger. There are a lot of reason not to be bearish in the short term.

Mostly macro reasons.

1) Even after recent correction, the US markets are over-stretched after a multi-year bull run.

2) Rest of the world is heading into a period of competitive devaluations. This is going to hurt US companies, especially ones dependent on exports such as tech, branded merchandise, etc.

3) Fed is out of ammo, unlike the last drops when they could step in with massive rate cuts.

4) Commodities collapse. Hurts aggregate global demand. If gas drops from $5 to $2, you are not going likely to buy two iPhones instead of one. But someone in Brazil and Russia is more likely to buy zero instead of one.

I am not excluding a near term bounce, so I am primarily buying June puts.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Im buying biotech again. Two stocks I watch regularly did real well today.

 

[Artdeco]

Sold a couple hundred shares of CMG, before earnings, phew...

Might buy it back tomorrow.

 

[holden j caufield]

Im buying biotech again. Two stocks I watch regularly did real well today.

what are they? ADXS is looking tempting to me but that stock takes some wild swings.

 

[Imp]

API oil inventory showed a build in crude, gas, and distillates, I think. Surprise?

 

[FelixDeCat]

what are they? ADXS is looking tempting to me but that stock takes some wild swings.

I owned ADXS again this year for a quick trade, but dumped it when watching the action in AVXL! Got in, sold and bought back even more shares.

Im hoping it goes back near or over $5 soon. They have had a few setbacks and the stock was hovering in the low $3's for a while. But then, on very light volume, the stock rallied from $3.40 to $3.85. I avoided it because it looked too risky. Today got in low $4s sold near $5, bought back again in low $4s.

They are going to present at an investor conference 2/9/16. Another catalyst was AXONs bad news and 30% drop today...that was viewed as favorable for AVXL.

The other stock I was tempted to buy (but did not) at $9 yesterday was PACB. They make machines for gene research. Today, about 2 hours to close the stock ROCKETED from $9.50 to near $14 before pulling back.

 

[JEDI]

Christ QQQ is getting clobbered. -2%
yet the dow is only -.4%

whats dragging down the techs?

hm.. does qqq also include biotechs?
my biotechs are sinking faster than the dow too

 

[dullard]

hm.. does qqq also include biotechs?
my biotechs are sinking faster than the dow too

QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100, which does include biotech stocks:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASDAQ-100

On a quick glance I saw Amgen, Biogen, Celgene, Gilead, Illumina, Incyte, Mylan, Regeneron, Vertex, and several related stocks such as Stericycle.

 

[core2slow]

AMGEN is on the prowl.

My UNIS is blowing up because of it.

 

[Imp]

FML. USD apparently tanked and I'm now down 0.5% on the year. Aw, I miss being 4% up two weeks into the year.

 

[Charmonium]

Just saw this article today - http://www.businessinsider.com/us-job-growth-set-to-slow-2016-2

I've mentioned the flattening yield curve a couple of times and it seems that it's finally having an effect. The article doesn't implicate the narrowing spread between long and short rates specifically, but that's my take on it. There's no reason for banks to lend if they're not going to make a decent profit after expected loan losses are taken into account.

If that's what's happening, then this could be a self-reinforcing phenomenon. And since peak employment lags so far behind other indicators of economic health that it is nearly counter-cyclical, it would mean that we've already started down the road to recession.

Personally, I think that we could probably get one quarter with negative growth before other factors like housing and domestic demand reverse the flow. We might even get 2 quarters in a row that are technically negative but only marginally. That should be enough to satisfy the bears and start things moving up again.

Since the market predicts these sorts of things 6-12 months in advance, we should see that happen later this year (August - October) or early next.

 

[JEDI]

Fidelity Freedom 2040 is only 6 % bonds right now?!

wtf?!
freedom fund year is supposed to be when you turn 65.
so in 2016, you're supposed to be 41 years old thus 30% bonds if aggressive.

wtf is this 6% shit!?

my 401k going down fast during this recession

 

[Imp]

Average time between recessions appears to be about 5 years -- Wikipedia says there were 47 since 1790 so [2016-1790=226/47=4.8].

Last one was 2008. We're pretty long overdue at 8 years.

Most convincing case for me is just drawing best-fit lines through SPY ETF during bull markets. Looked like there was a characteristic drop-off every time before a bear market started -- looked like we're in that drop-off now. Ya, that's technical analysis bullshit...

P.S. I should convert all my USD to CAD and lock in my gains, but then I'd be locked out of buying SPY at bottom of market. And there's a good chance CAD will do worse than USD since Canada's reliant on U.S. as trading partner, commodities tanked, and housing market should follow soon. Hope I'm right...

 

[Charmonium]

Average time between recessions appears to be about 5 years -- Wikipedia says there were 47 since 1790 so [2016-1790=226/47=4.8].

Last one was 2008. We're pretty long overdue at 8 years.

Most convincing case for me is just drawing best-fit lines through SPY ETF during bull markets. Looked like there was a characteristic drop-off every time before a bear market started -- looked like we're in that drop-off now. Ya, that's technical analysis bullshit...

P.S. I should convert all my USD to CAD and lock in my gains, but then I'd be locked out of buying SPY at bottom of market. And there's a good chance CAD will do worse than USD since Canada's reliant on U.S. as trading partner, commodities tanked, and housing market should follow soon. Hope I'm right...

Well, it depends. Recoveries from credit recessions take a lot longer recover from than inventory recessions because they strike at the very heart of the financial system. It erodes trust on the part of all market participants - which is why you have firms hold record amounts of cash, much stricter loan underwriting standards, higher bank capital requirements, etc.

I don't think that we'll have an honest to god, the sky is falling recession like 2008-9. That's just not going to happen. But I do think it's possible to get an inverted yield curve for a very short period of time and subsequently a couple quarters of technically negative growth.

But most of that is due to the increase in the savings rate, the fact that home building has yet to fully recover (and normally it's what leads us out of recessions) and the massively reduced employment and capex in the energy sector.

Those issues have to be worked through but I don't think they're serious enough to cause anything approaching a debilitating recession. It will be more of a speed bump.

 

[FelixDeCat]

There is no recession. Please. All there was is a decline in oil and strong dollar (because the Fed is raising rates), which makes our goods more expensive overseas crimping corporate profits.

Most people agree this will be an overall down year for the stock markets but I would not say we are in a recession...just a contraction in corporate profits.

You will still have a job tomorrow.

 

[Michael]

Just thought I would mention that I have a site where I share some insights that some investors here might like. From the prospective of my job.

http://mgpotter.com

Michael

 

[IronWing]

I've been watching a few metals over the past couple months. I can see the allure of the commodities markets; get your annual fix of market ups and downs in a matter of days.

 

[Imp]

There is no recession. Please. All there was is a decline in oil and strong dollar (because the Fed is raising rates), which makes our goods more expensive overseas crimping corporate profits.

Most people agree this will be an overall down year for the stock markets but I would not say we are in a recession...just a contraction in corporate profits.

You will still have a job tomorrow.

Unemployment only, officially, hit about 20% to 25% during the Great Depression, so most people probably don't have to worry about their job regardless.

 

[brianmanahan]

I've been watching a few metals over the past couple months. I can see the allure of the commodities markets; get your annual fix of market ups and downs in a matter of days.

that's why i just buy ancient silver and gold coins directly

they dont zig or zag, they just sit next to my desk looking cool

 

[FelixDeCat]

Unemployment only, officially, hit about 20% to 25% during the Great Depression, so most people probably don't have to worry about their job regardless.

You remember the "great recession" of 2008-2013? The global credit crises as the result of the mortgage meltdown created massive job losses, employers unwilling to hire new employees, and the new phenomenon of temp firms being used to supply regular labor forces to cut back on pay and benefits. I know all this first hand because it happened to me!

We even had government promoting "99 weeks of unemployment" pay to help compensate.

What planet were you on anyway?

 

[Imp]

You remember the "great recession" of 2008-2013? The global credit crises as the result of the mortgage meltdown created massive job losses, employers unwilling to hire new employees, and the new phenomenon of temp firms being used to supply regular labor forces to cut back on pay and benefits. I know all this first hand because it happened to me!

We even had government promoting "99 weeks of unemployment" pay to help compensate.

What planet were you on anyway?

Just graduating from college and working at temp agencies! Up against 900 people for 6 positions.

Hey man, you were the saying not to worry.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Just graduating from college and working at temp agencies! Up against 900 people for 6 positions.

Hey man, you were the saying not to worry.

Im telling you, there is a lot of funny things going on out there. Anything can happen to anyone at any time. Dont get to comfortable - or we both might be out of a job.