***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[JTsyo]

How does the the attempted coup in Turkey affect the markets on Monday? Should I buy some VIX or TVIX, it's pretty low right now.

The coup was crushed so I don't see much coming from it.

 

[JEDI]

The coup was crushed so I don't see much coming from it.

now Turkey hates us because they say the coup mastermind lives in PA.
they want him extradited. we say no.
they closed their airbase to US

yeah, relations w/turkey souring will have a negative impact on markets on mon

 

[FelixDeCat]

The Turkey thing is no big deal.

 

[Imp]

now Turkey hates us because they say the coup mastermind lives in PA.
they want him extradited. we say no.
they closed their airbase to US

Hope they got their nukes out...

 

[Miramonti]

Netflix crushed, to 86 from 98 now. Time for another season of breaking bad?

 

[Charmonium]

Netflix crushed, to 86 from 98 now. Time for another season of breaking bad?

14% decline is quite a beating, but I think it's over done. If you're a cord cutter, Netflix has to be one of your top subscription services. And now that they've expanded int'lly, I think they're going to continue to grow. People are rebelling now but they're eventually going to realize that $10 is still a pretty good deal.

 

[ponyo]

14% decline is quite a beating, but I think it's over done. If you're a cord cutter, Netflix has to be one of your top subscription services. And now that they've expanded int'lly, I think they're going to continue to grow. People are rebelling now but they're eventually going to realize that $10 is still a pretty good deal.

I think the beating is just starting. I rather be short than long Netflix going forward. I think people are now realizing the growth in the US is finished. International isn't going to save them.

 

[TallBill]

Their market saturation is insane though, not sure how investors are surprised by lack of growth.

81% of adults between the ages of 18 and 35 have Netflix accounts. There's essentially no growth left period, but that shouldn't be a bad thing...

 

[Charmonium]

What are the stats for the 130 countries they've recently expanded to. I assume that's where the growth will come from.

 

[Imp]

So now Ireland is worried about Brexit impacting their economy. Italy's banks are borderline insolvent, Deutsche in Germany having issues, Portugal and Spain banks also showing signs of problems, and British property funds getting kicked in the ass. But if you look at the stock markets, everything is awesome.

 

[JEDI]

But if you look at the stock markets, everything is awesome.

because the rest of the world is worst off than the US, everyone in the world is flocketing to stocks.
making it go to record highs

 

[Imp]

because the rest of the world is worst off than the US, everyone in the world is flocketing to stocks.
making it go to record highs

That and junk bonds... because they got their name by being awesome.

 

[Miramonti]

How does the the attempted coup in Turkey affect the markets on Monday? Should I buy some VIX or TVIX, it's pretty low right now.

TVIX, VXX, UVXY (and other volatility instruments) have to be the worst investment instruments ever created. They frequently lose so much value that they have to reverse split tenfold just to have a share price large enough to continue their listings on the exchanges. The current TVIX price, $1.40, is equivalent to their starting price in 2010 as having been >$6,000, thus losing the equivalent of>$5,998 out of each $6,000 invested to date. (At the beginning of January of '16, they were $8.45, having lost 85% this year.)

I don't know how these are calculated, but I have to assume that they're equivalent to buying option premium with rapid decay over time. They can pay off in the short term if one is quickly correct and gets in right before a very volatile event or cycle, but otherwise they seem to be fairly suicidal investments to purchase.

 

[Charmonium]

TVIX, VXX, UVXY (and other volatility instruments) have to be the worst investment instruments ever created. They frequently lose so much value that they have to reverse split tenfold just to have a share price large enough to continue their listings on the exchanges. The current TVIX price, $1.40, is equivalent to their starting price in 2010 as having been >$6,000, thus losing the equivalent of>$5,998 out of each $6,000 invested to date. (At the beginning of January of '16, they were $8.45, having lost 85% this year.)

I don't know how these are calculated, but I have to assume that they're equivalent to buying option premium with rapid decay over time. They can pay off in the short term if one is quickly correct and gets in right before a very volatile event or cycle, but otherwise they seem to be fairly suicidal investments to purchase.

That's pretty interesting. Is there an etf for the skew index?

 

[FelixDeCat]

TVIX, VXX, UVXY (and other volatility instruments) have to be the worst investment instruments ever created. They frequently lose so much value that they have to reverse split tenfold just to have a share price large enough to continue their listings on the exchanges. The current TVIX price, $1.40, is equivalent to their starting price in 2010 as having been >$6,000, thus losing the equivalent of>$5,998 out of each $6,000 invested to date. (At the beginning of January of '16, they were $8.45, having lost 85% this year.)

I don't know how these are calculated, but I have to assume that they're equivalent to buying option premium with rapid decay over time. They can pay off in the short term if one is quickly correct and gets in right before a very volatile event or cycle, but otherwise they seem to be fairly suicidal investments to purchase.

Betting on volatility is like betting on the weather. Its frankly nonsensical and disturbing, and was simply created to generate trading profits. The SEC should shut TVIX down.

 

[JTsyo]

TVIX, VXX, UVXY (and other volatility instruments) have to be the worst investment instruments ever created. They frequently lose so much value that they have to reverse split tenfold just to have a share price large enough to continue their listings on the exchanges. The current TVIX price, $1.40, is equivalent to their starting price in 2010 as having been >$6,000, thus losing the equivalent of>$5,998 out of each $6,000 invested to date. (At the beginning of January of '16, they were $8.45, having lost 85% this year.)

I don't know how these are calculated, but I have to assume that they're equivalent to buying option premium with rapid decay over time. They can pay off in the short term if one is quickly correct and gets in right before a very volatile event or cycle, but otherwise they seem to be fairly suicidal investments to purchase.

It's never meant to be held over a long period of time. If you're holding it for more than a day or two, you are asking for trouble.

 

[Imp]

Uh ohs, looks like oil & gas companies are doing another round of layoffs. This is the second one this week, I think:

ConocoPhillips Canada says it plans to lay off 250 to 300 employees this September, with the vast majority of cuts coming from its Calgary head office.

http://business.financialpost.com/n...f-300-staff-mostly-in-calgary?__lsa=0d89-9989

WTI is sitting around $45. If it follows the 2015 trend, it's not going to get or stay much higher into winter. But hey, don't worry, house prices in Calgary have barely moved in 2 years.

Edit: And DXY is up past 97 points again. Fed meeting is next week. Are they trying to price in a hike?

 

[sm625]

2016-06-28      37.4 chg   52.8, score:   90.2 graph:   65.0 BUYIF
2016-06-29      57.0 chg   19.5, score:   76.5 graph:   74.4 BUY
2016-06-30      28.2 chg  -28.8, score:   -0.6 graph:   67.3 (sell in 14.0 days)
2016-07-01      10.3 chg  -17.9, score:   -7.6 graph:   59.7 (sell in 12.7 days)
2016-07-05      12.7 chg    2.4, score:   15.1 graph:   60.2 BUY
2016-07-06      14.5 chg    1.8, score:   16.3 graph:   62.7 BUY
2016-07-07      19.6 chg    5.1, score:   24.8 graph:   66.6 BUY
2016-07-08       0.4 chg  -19.3, score:  -18.9 graph:   60.9 (sell in 25.2 days)
2016-07-11       2.3 chg    2.0, score:    4.3 graph:   61.0 (sell in 24.4 days)
2016-07-12       6.3 chg    3.9, score:   10.2 graph:   62.3 (sell in 23.8 days)
2016-07-13      -1.4 chg   -7.6, score:   -9.0 graph:   59.0 (sell in 22.5 days)
2016-07-14       2.3 chg    3.7, score:    6.0 graph:   59.9 (sell in 21.7 days)
2016-07-15       1.6 chg   -0.8, score:    0.8 graph:   59.3 (sell in 20.7 days)
2016-07-18      -3.7 chg   -5.3, score:   -9.1 graph:   56.8 (sell in 19.4 days)
2016-07-19      -3.7 chg    0.0, score:   -3.7 graph:   56.3 (sell in 18.2 days)
2016-07-20       0.3 chg    4.0, score:    4.2 graph:   57.4 (sell in 17.4 days)
2016-07-21     -15.4 chg  -15.7, score:  -31.1 graph:   50.8 (sell in 15.1 days)
2016-07-22     -16.5 chg   -1.1, score:  -17.6 graph:   49.4 (sell in 13.4 days)
2016-07-25     -62.1 chg  -45.6, score: -107.7 graph:   30.5 (sell in 4.9 days)

Ok I am getting scared out of my position once again. I always swear I will not do it too early but I dont like seeing triple digit negative numbers.

Edit 10:49 AM:

2016-07-25     -76.4 chg  -59.8, score: -136.2 graph:   24.8 SELL

The reading is declining rapidly and has now generated an automated sell signal. This is market crash territory here.

 

[JEDI]

Nintendo stock doubled after Pokémon Go was released a few ago.

on Fri after market close, Nintendo said it doesn't make Pokémon Go.
HOLY Batman!!

it owns the tradename but licensed it to a former Google company who actually makes this game.
so Nintendo isn't going to make much $ from the pokemon Go phenomenon.

did no one do their homework? including analysts???

but shares plunged only 18%?!?!
http://www.androidauthority.com/nintendo-doesnt-actually-make-pokemon-go-705535/

wow.. shocked the stock price didn't halve and went back to original?

 

[Miramonti]

Nintendo stock doubled after Pokémon Go was released a few ago.

on Fri after market close, Nintendo said it doesn't make Pokémon Go.
HOLY Batman!!

it owns the tradename but licensed it to a former Google company who actually makes this game.
so Nintendo isn't going to make much $ from the pokemon Go phenomenon.

did no one do their homework? including analysts???

but shares plunged only 18%?!?!
http://www.androidauthority.com/nintendo-doesnt-actually-make-pokemon-go-705535/

wow.. shocked the stock price didn't halve and went back to original?

Sucks for those that didn't know that and tried to get in on the gravy train after it rallied.

 

[dullard]

wow.. shocked the stock price didn't halve and went back to original?

It was pretty well advertised that Nintendo didn't have full rights to it. But, do note that Nintendo owns a sizable chunk of Niantic and a sizable chunk of Pokémon itself (both of which get profits from the game). http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/13/

Yes, people overreacted and the price went too high. It is dropping due to that fact.

The reason the share price isn't dropping to where it was originally is because Nintendo had a long series of low profit failures and now has shown that it can have a success in today's economy. Much of Nintendo's price gain wasn't from Pokémon Go, but from the fact that they finally seem to have a good idea of how to make products that people want. Meaning investors are excited to find out what comes NEXT after this craze fades (after years of disappointments from them).

 

[Imp]

did no one do their homework? including analysts???

Does anyone anymore? If they did, we probably wouldn't have housing bubbles everywhere despite housing bubbles triggering a massive economic crash less than a decade prior.

Oh, and WTI is down to ~$43 again. Something about a glut? But but but the EIA and/or IEA said the glut would be eliminated this year -- no one seems to care they change their forecasts every month or so.

 

[JTsyo]

Nintendo also has plans to bring some of it's IP to mobile so all that bought might not have been on the Pokemon craze. They won't have the cash cow that the the gameboy was but they should get decent sales.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Im waiting to see how many lawsuits get filed against Nintendo for creating a game that has had many perilous outcomes for those that don't know any better and expect government and the courts to protect them when they slip and fall or spill coffee while pokemoning.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Does anyone anymore? If they did, we probably wouldn't have housing bubbles everywhere despite housing bubbles triggering a massive economic crash less than a decade prior.

Oh, and WTI is down to ~$43 again. Something about a glut? But but but the EIA and/or IEA said the glut would be eliminated this year -- no one seems to care they change their forecasts every month or so.

A galloon of gas has fallen from $2.10 to $1.75 in DFW in just the last 3 weeks. Go oil!! :whiste: