***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Exterous]

Anyone think Chipotle looks kinda juicy?

I'm betting they have a bit farther to go while the negative news continues to shake out on investigations and changes and that there are some better options out there like GILD. I'm trying to separate out my bias from making a lot of money off GILD in June and October but their financials still look quite good to me. ABBV is another one I'm watching but have bit again yet

Sure if you want to lose money on something overpriced and has been overpriced for quite some time. IMO Apple has no where to go but down.

I disagree. I think the concern over lower 6s sales overblown - which would not be the first time its happened (it happened with one of their other phones - the 5 I think), and the iPhone still has quite the reaction to initial sales with the 7 due out this year. The financials aren't exactly the weakest either. I picked up a position Thursday so we'll see

Anyone have the balls to buy now?

I'm tempted to add to my IRA today.

I almost always buy during times like this. I picked up GILD, MA and APPL in the last two days

 

[Balt]

I'm betting they have a bit farther to go while the negative news continues to shake out on investigations and changes and that there are some better options out there like GILD. I'm trying to separate out my bias from making a lot of money off GILD in June and October but their financials still look quite good to me. ABBV is another one I'm watching but have bit again yet

GILD makes me so sad. It's my largest (single) position, but it really gets no respect at its current PE ratio.

I get that there are threats to its dominance and the possibility of maturation in its HCV cure, but they are sitting on a pile of cash and I'm still hoping they are really looking for some good M&A opportunities. Their pipeline seems to mostly focus on increasing the effectiveness and reducing the ineffectiveness of their current drugs, which apparently the market doesn't care for (even if it generates a ton of money and possibly re-ups the time they have before generics come along).

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

In complete honesty, this is the first time my spider senses have been tingling that the worst has yet to come. Normally, I would max out my ROTH IRA now under the presumption that this dip is a general good time to buy.

But for once I just have that gut feeling that we have another 5-15% to go in the coming 1-2 weeks.

Also, is it just me or is this the first time manufacturers that have been shipping jobs to China are finally getting a little blowback?

 

[us3rnotfound]

In complete honesty, this is the first time my spider senses have been tingling that the worst has yet to come. Normally, I would max out my ROTH IRA now under the presumption that this dip is a general good time to buy.

But for once I just have that gut feeling that we have another 5-15% to go in the coming 1-2 weeks.

Also, is it just me or is this the first time manufacturers that have been shipping jobs to China are finally getting a little blowback?

The above quote has never been said before. The previous sentence is purely sarcasm.

 

[brianmanahan]

i'm not normally that stupid, but was just thinking about buying SDRL for a 1 year timeframe

 

[Charmonium]

i'm not normally that stupid, but was just thinking about buying SDRL for a 1 year timeframe

According to the analyst reports I get with my brokerage acct (ameritrade), out of 7 reports, 4 say sell/avoid/etc., 2 say hold and one (S&P) has no opinion.

That's not to say that the analysts are always right, but as far as I know, no one is calling for an increase in oil prices anytime soon. And since off shore drilling is the most expensive method, there probably isn't going to be much of a demand.

If you have a specific time horizon in mind, you might want to look at a leap call for 2017 or 2018 if those are being written for the stock.

Yep, just checked. 3 buck calls for 2017 are going for around $1.2 and 2018 calls for just a little more.

 

[Imp]

Embargo on Iran is supposedly going to be lifted in January. That's an estimated 500M barrels/day extra on the market. Then add in the Iran-Saudia Arabia stuff and they may pump more just to give each other the finger.

Also, there was a drawdown in crude in the EIA or something reports. Only problem is that it looks like someone bought a lot of crude and made way too much gasoline with it because gasoline stockpiles rose a lot.

Never been a better time to be 95% cash...

 

[brianmanahan]

According to the analyst reports I get with my brokerage acct (ameritrade), out of 7 reports, 4 say sell/avoid/etc., 2 say hold and one (S&P) has no opinion.

That's not to say that the analysts are always right, but as far as I know, no one is calling for an increase in oil prices anytime soon. And since off shore drilling is the most expensive method, there probably isn't going to be much of a demand.

If you have a specific time horizon in mind, you might want to look at a leap call for 2017 or 2018 if those are being written for the stock.

Yep, just checked. 3 buck calls for 2017 are going for around $1.2 and 2018 calls for just a little more.

no worries, i smacked myself and am all better now

 

[Imp]

Bought my first stock in over a month... Suncor. It's at CA$ 33-ish, and it has bounced back to $35+ a few times after hitting that in the past year.

Is this time different? No clue, but I put in a disposable amount to have some fun.

Well, that was dumb. Lost 4% in one day. It broke through the $33 resistance level to $31 and the 5 year trend suggests it's heading further down. After the colonoscopy last year, I decided I'd rather cut my losses early rather than wait it out.

Converted the rest of my "play" money to USD to kill any further attempts at "fun." Still ahead on the day due to drop in CAD.

 

[ponyo]

Well, that was dumb. Lost 4% in one day. It broke through the $33 resistance level to $31 and the 5 year trend suggests it's heading further down. After the colonoscopy last year, I decided I'd rather cut my losses early rather than wait it out.

Converted the rest of my "play" money to USD to kill any further attempts at "fun." Still ahead on the day due to drop in CAD.

I just checked the US dollar to CAD. Wow. It's 1.42. Personally, I would take the other side of that trade. Same with oil. I would go long oil at $31 barrel. It's funny how people were so willing to buy oil at over $100 are now shunning it at $31.

Today, I bought shares in Twitter. At $19 and change and less than $14 billion market cap, I think it's worth a shot. It hit another all time low today.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Please dont tell me people are still trying to play oil. Its dead.

Back in 80s, oil hit something like $15 or less per barrel. Its dead.

They are going to be like tobacco stocks. The ones that survive pay dividends like XOM. The others will die.

 

[Imp]

I just checked the US dollar to CAD. Wow. It's 1.42. Personally, I would take the other side of that trade. Same with oil. I would go long oil at $31 barrel. It's funny how people were so willing to buy oil at over $100 are now shunning it at $31.

Longer term, ya, I would play the other side of oil and the USD-CAD. However, I'm not touching oil unless it hits ~$25/barrel and after Iran's embargo has lifted. I'm holding firm on USD-CAD because the economy is so fucked. We rely on resource extraction and trading each other real-estate.

They are going to be like tobacco stocks. The ones that survive pay dividends like XOM. The others will die.

XOM makes money in bad times, probably because they own downstream (I think it's down?) stuff like gas stations. Cheaper gas should just mean cheaper costs to make gasoline et al. It'll kill new oil extraction investment though... Suncor or SU appears to be something like that. They own Petro-Canada stations.

 

[sm625]

Please dont tell me people are still trying to play oil. Its dead.

Back in 80s, oil hit something like $15 or less per barrel. Its dead.

This is a critical week for oil. WTIC must close above $33 by the end of the week if it is going to complete the pattern I'm looking for in Q1.

 

[11thHour]

Please dont tell me people are still trying to play oil. Its dead.

Back in 80s, oil hit something like $15 or less per barrel. Its dead.

They are going to be like tobacco stocks. The ones that survive pay dividends like XOM. The others will die.

Every once in a while, someone posts and inadvertently lays down pure gold for future sig material to the rest of ATOT for years to come. This can hibernate for a while but can be expected to return some day in glorious fashion.

 

[Exterous]

GILD makes me so sad. It's my largest (single) position, but it really gets no respect at its current PE ratio.

I get that there are threats to its dominance and the possibility of maturation in its HCV cure, but they are sitting on a pile of cash and I'm still hoping they are really looking for some good M&A opportunities. Their pipeline seems to mostly focus on increasing the effectiveness and reducing the ineffectiveness of their current drugs, which apparently the market doesn't care for (even if it generates a ton of money and possibly re-ups the time they have before generics come along).

I don't quite understand it myself either but buying on the dips and then selling a few months later seems to work very well. Might need to adjust my buy price for 2016 though...

 

[FelixDeCat]

RIP Oil $29.99

 

[FelixDeCat]

Every once in a while, someone posts and inadvertently lays down pure gold for future sig material to the rest of ATOT for years to come. This can hibernate for a while but can be expected to return some day in glorious fashion.

Thanks .... I think.

 

[Pocatello]

How much lower can oil go? Isn't it a good idea to buy low and sell high? The Saudis want to bankrupt the shale oil business, but when the competitions are dead, the Saudis are going to reduce supply. Even counting in the Iranian oil, I think the price of oil will go higher in the future, maybe $50-60/barrel.

 

[poohbear]

http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/investing/markets-sell-everything-cataclysmic-year-rbs/

Januaey 12th, RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland) tells clients to sell ALL stock ahead of an expected stock market crash.

"Focus should be a return of capital, not a return on capital."

Kinda scary stuff to tell clients. Are they trying to scare the market or is it a genuine concern for their clients?

 

[edro]

How much lower can oil go? Isn't it a good idea to buy low and sell high? The Saudis want to bankrupt the shale oil business, but when the competitions are dead, the Saudis are going to reduce supply. Even counting in the Iranian oil, I think the price of oil will go higher in the future, maybe $50-60/barrel.

It's quick and easy to get shale back up and running.
Oil may never "recover".
Renewables may take over and oil may never be in short supply again.

...but your guess is as good as anybody's.

 

[Udgnim]

It's quick and easy to get shale back up and running.
Oil may never "recover".
Renewables may take over and oil may never be in short supply again.

...but your guess is as good as anybody's.

shale oil companies bankrupt

assets get bought up by oil majors

oil majors cooperate with Saudis to not pump shale so aggressively

 

[Imp]

http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/investing/markets-sell-everything-cataclysmic-year-rbs/

Januaey 12th, RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland) tells clients to sell ALL stock ahead of an expected stock market crash.

Saw that one this morning... Good times ahead. On the other hand, I wouldn't trust any economist/analyst/expert.

How much lower can oil go? Isn't it a good idea to buy low and sell high? The Saudis want to bankrupt the shale oil business, but when the competitions are dead, the Saudis are going to reduce supply. Even counting in the Iranian oil, I think the price of oil will go higher in the future, maybe $50-60/barrel.

Already answered above: shale, I believe, can be capped and restarted easily when profitable.

Even if all the shale companies go bankrupt, a company like Exxon-Mobil or Chevron could come in to buy all of them at fire-sale prices. They could use their profitable, conventional oil and downstream (e.g. gas station) revenue streams to bankroll their shale sites.

Also, this downturn has really forced oil companies to cut prices. There should be a glut of oil workers now driving wages down. That and desperate workers may do the work of 3 people just to have a job. Technologies are only getting better/cheaper in the meantime.

But ya, if all the big companies collude... prices could go up.

 

[herm0016]

Already answered above: shale, I believe, can be capped and restarted easily when profitable.

Even if all the shale companies go bankrupt, a company like Exxon-Mobil or Chevron could come in to buy all of them at fire-sale prices. They could use their profitable, conventional oil and downstream (e.g. gas station) revenue streams to bankroll their shale sites.

in the industry. i am buying some small batches of land heavy and oil heavy companies for fun. example: HK limit orders at 55 cents. it was 200 a share in 2012 and i know that completion prices in the bakken have not hit the floor. when the service price goes down, they will probably spend a bit more to have production ready to turn on, and they will cut their per barrel cost even more. they have been beating expectations even in the down turn.

 

[Imp]

API inventory numbers out... Crude numbers supposedly went down, but distillates went up a lot. Similar to last week then.

Word is that January is usually a crude build-up month. Looks like it is, people are just buying more to make too much of end-products.

 

[Imp]

Canada's housing market is nice and stable... Great lending standards.

The Bank of Canada is nervously keeping tabs on the non-prime trend and in the past year has begun sounding alarm bells. “A sizable proportion of new, uninsured mortgages are being issued to riskier borrowers,” it announced last December, calling the situation “worrisome.”

http://torontolife.com/real-estate/...ing-torontos-real-estate-market-to-the-brink/