***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[brianmanahan]

I should pay more attention to the price of oil, but I dont. :|

Im just ready for gas to be .99 cents again like it was prior to the year 2000. How did those idiots sucker us into paying $4.50 a gallon for that to begin with?


$100 oil? What a joke that was!


...hey did you hear the one about $150 oil back in 2008? LOL

dave said gas is gonna be 6$ a gallon last year

 

[sm625]

Here is my current battle plan: If we close today around 2064 and if we rally tomorrow up to around 2083, then I will be taking a large short position for a duration of about 5-7 trading days.

Edit:

Well this is interesting

2015-11-17     -21.5 chg  -11.2, score:  -32.7
2015-11-18     -37.7 chg  -16.3, score:  -54.0
2015-11-19     -42.2 chg   -4.4, score:  -46.6
2015-11-20     -39.9 chg    2.3, score:  -37.6
2015-11-23     -30.6 chg    9.3, score:  -21.3
2015-11-24     -32.6 chg   -2.0, score:  -34.7
2015-11-25     -11.5 chg   21.1, score:    9.6
2015-11-27      -1.7 chg    9.8, score:    8.1
2015-11-30     -11.0 chg   -9.3, score:  -20.2
2015-12-01       2.2 chg   13.2, score:   15.4
2015-12-02       4.0 chg    1.8, score:    5.7
2015-12-03      26.4 chg   22.4, score:   48.8 BUYIF

Now BUYIF doesnt mean "buy if there is an important employment report due tomorrow". But nonetheless because its a friday and there is the opportunity for massive profits on a weekly options trade I went ahead and bought some calls that expire tomorrow. This is technically not following the rules since the signal is not confirmed and there is no reason to believe it will be confirmed, but what the heck, it's just money.

 

[Imp]

DOW/S&P are down over 1% but oil is up a few percent... Bla bla short covering.

 

[Charmonium]

Markets were down because Yellen basically said yesterday that they would raise interest rates in December. Their logic was that they didn't want to fall behind the curve and be forced into a situation where they would have to raise rates very quickly at some later date.

It's not a big deal though since the increase is going to be a nominal quarter point most likely and markets have already gained back half of what they lost yesterday. This is actually a good sign since it means that the economy is healthy and getting stronger.

 

[sm625]

Well that was fun. :biggrin: The buy signal is still not confirmed but it was enough to scare me away from any potential short position into next week. The pattern that we have is similar to what I am looking for in my model, but its not quite there yet.

I was literally .< that close to buying these. I went with the 207s instead. It's funny how you can kick yourself for only making 400% in a day when you could have made 5000%.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Yeah but, you know. It's a nonrenewable resource, and stuff.

Which is why renewable sources like solar have been implemented in large scales worldwide since $100 oil. It made sense.

Not to mention the wide adoption of electric vehicles like Tesla and hybrids made by all auto manufacturers. Finally, things that there were available since the 1950s like direct fuel injection engines made financial sense (also electric steering which elimated the hydraulic pump, etc).

I liked it when people made a great effort to save gas and therefore money. Less trips, less joyriding, etc. I just hope we dont go back to our old ways. I also hope we continue to make oil about as useless as "clean" coal.

Most American coal companies have all gone bankrupt in the last 12 months. I hope one day the oil companies too all go chapter 7.

 

[Imp]

I liked it when people made a great effort to save gas and therefore money. Less trips, less joyriding, etc. I just hope we dont go back to our old ways. I also hope we continue to make oil about as useless as "clean" coal.

Most American coal companies have all gone bankrupt in the last 12 months. I hope one day the oil companies too all go chapter 7.

Last I checked, the F150 and SUVs were still at the top of the sales charts.

The most plausible scenario I read about why the Saudis were pumping all out was that the Saudis saw the end of oil in sight, within the next two decades.

It really doesn't make sense to me why we haven't bothered storing electricity. Renewable, nuclear, and other non-scaleable plants still produce a ton of electricity when it's not needed. Store excess as hydrogen, potential energy (i.e. pump or lift something up, pump air down into water), or crappy batteries. The Tesla battery shows the most hope: compact, energy dense, and consumer friendly.

Oh, and Canada lost 35,700 jobs. U.S. created 211,000. WTI down below $40. Come on rate increase...

 

[Hugo Drax]

Well that was fun. :biggrin: The buy signal is still not confirmed but it was enough to scare me away from any potential short position into next week. The pattern that we have is similar to what I am looking for in my model, but its not quite there yet.

I was literally .< that close to buying these. I went with the 207s instead. It's funny how you can kick yourself for only making 400% in a day when you could have made 5000%.

400% return on what? 20 dollar bet?

 

[jpiniero]

BTW, you know they could "raise" the rate to just 0.25% instead of 0-0.25%. And then close up shop until after the elections. Which of course would keep their creditability about doing a hike but not really do anything.

Politically I don't think the Fed could raise rates quickly even if the data supported it.

 

[11thHour]

400% return on what? 20 dollar bet?

Trying to make this a penis measurement contest?

 

[Imp]

BTW, you know they could "raise" the rate to just 0.25% instead of 0-0.25%. And then close up shop until after the elections. Which of course would keep their creditability about doing a hike but not really do anything.

Politically I don't think the Fed could raise rates quickly even if the data supported it.

I doubt they'll raise it above 0.50% for a while. A long long while. This so called recovery is barely happening.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I'm honestly surprised the market is taking it so well. I figured with the good November jobs report it would have triggered a huge negative as a "sure sign" the rate hike will be put in place at the Fed meeting on the 13th or 15th or whatever.

 

[JTsyo]

I'm honestly surprised the market is taking it so well. I figured with the good November jobs report it would have triggered a huge negative as a "sure sign" the rate hike will be put in place at the Fed meeting on the 13th or 15th or whatever.

I think by now the rate hike is already priced in. With the mostly positive news, the market should be a bit higher but I think the rate hike is what's holding us back. I expect to see a dip right afterwards but growth afterwards.

 

[FelixDeCat]

 

[Imp]

Reeeeeeeeed... Market isn't taking it so well afterall?

Holi shiit. WTI is down to mid $37 right now. One CAD is a tad above US$ 0.7400 and I'm now 13% ahead on the year. Fed announcement should be next Thursday-ish. Don't eff it up now...

 

[sm625]

Another one of my models, my dow jones confidence model, is showing sell signals on 20 of the 30 components, with another 6 potential sell signals being generated given a further decline of only 2% this week. This is pretty bad. The last time anything even close to this happened was January 2014, but even back then it was mostly just potential signals. The readings back in august of this year werent anywhere near this bad. The charts for FB,AMZN,NFLX, and GOOGL all look really bad right now, and those are the bellweathers for the market.

There is really only one way to say this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXb0zcEM-rI

 

[dr150]

There is really only one way to say this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXb0zcEM-rI

LOL.

I ain't getting out. It's a sunk cost. Trying to sell on fear and time the market in an upswing is a fools game. Just ask Bogle or Buffet about this.
.
.
Forget about the markets and go fap.

 

[Imp]

Another one of my models, my dow jones confidence model, is showing sell signals on 20 of the 30 components, with another 6 potential sell signals being generated given a further decline of only 2% this week. This is pretty bad. The last time anything even close to this happened was January 2014, but even back then it was mostly just potential signals. The readings back in august of this year werent anywhere near this bad. The charts for FB,AMZN,NFLX, and GOOGL all look really bad right now, and those are the bellweathers for the market.

There is really only one way to say this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXb0zcEM-rI

You son of a bitch... I wasted 30 minutes watching related Star Trek battle videos.

 

[JTsyo]

Man I had been keeping an eye of Green Mountain (GMCR) but this was a real surprise. Too fast to do anything.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Man I had been keeping an eye of Green Mountain (GMCR) but this was a real surprise. Too fast to do anything.

Hopefully the whole Keurig fad is dying... God I fucking hate those stupid machines that shit in your coffee and gives you 99% water.

 

[Imp]

Hopefully the whole Keurig fad is dying... God I fucking hate those stupid machines that shit in your coffee and gives you 99% water.

They just released a pop machine. It, apparently, doesn't require a CO2 tank and the carbonation is generated by something in the K-cup. Pretty cool but expensive as hell, so I'm just going to stick to buying 12 packs.

Edit: Anyway, CAD down to 0.7461 USD. Bank of Canada governor said that negative interest rates are a possibility if the shit hits the fan -- it's like he expects the shit to hit the fan...

 

[Imp]

So tempted to go all in on Exxon Mobil right now... But only one week to fun.

 

[sm625]

So tempted to go all in on Exxon Mobil right now... But only one week to fun.

All in short? You do realize that there are only two trading days out of the last 11 years where oil has closed lower than it is right now?

 

[Imp]

All in short? You do realize that there are only two trading days out of the last 11 years where oil has closed lower than it is right now?

All-in long. Oil's popped back from high-$30s the last few times, it "should" pop back to ~$50 this time... unless it doesn't and then game over since I went all in.

 

[sm625]

All-in long. Oil's popped back from high-$30s the last few times, it "should" pop back to ~$50 this time... unless it doesn't and then game over since I went all in.

Here is a chart of west texas crude overlaid with a chart of the bloomberg commodities index. Do you see anything bullish at all on this chart?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=W&st=2000-06-24&en=200-06-24&id=p45477903322

What that chart tells me is that oil is 100% overpriced relative to all other commodities.