***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[brianmanahan]

i think it was actually just faked by someone else, lol

 

[Imp]

I know it's pre-market, Asian trading... but CAD and oil look to be down a lot. But I found out very recently that it may have something to do with January WTI futures adjusting to match December futures, and December futures were already in the crapper on Friday.

 

[SketchMaster]

Debating buying up some more JWN with it being down, however it seems to be in the same boat as WFM.

May just put my cash into something else...

 

[Imp]

Thanksgiving is Thursday, Friday is a holiday... this is going to be a really boring week.

 

[KB]

Bought allergan today. Seemed like a no brainer unless i have no brain. Stock is 302, down from 340. If the deal goes through i get 11 shares of pfizer. based on the current price of allergan to pfizer i will get a 31 dollar stock at 26 bucks. If the deal falls through allergan gets 3 billion breakup fee. Seems like a win win.

 

[dullard]

Bought allergan today. Seemed like a no brainer unless i have no brain. Stock is 302, down from 340. If the deal goes through i get 11 shares of pfizer. based on the current price of allergan to pfizer i will get a 31 dollar stock at 26 bucks. If the deal falls through allergan gets 3 billion breakup fee. Seems like a win win.

I admit that I don't follow Allergan. But it seemed to be valued in the $250 to $280 per share range before the Pfizer deal started hitting the rumors in early to mid October. With nearly 400 million shares, the breakup fee is worth about $10/share. So, you may have bought a $250 + $10 to $280 + $10 stock for $300.

 

[11thHour]

What's the best way to invest in crude oil and hold for up to 5-10 years, or sooner if the ship comes in? Etf? Vanguard index? I'm not ready yet but want to be if it keeps going down.

 

[Imp]

Turkey, NATO member, shot down a Russian jet...

Curious how market will overreact.

 

[Charmonium]

What's the best way to invest in crude oil and hold for up to 5-10 years, or sooner if the ship comes in? Etf? Vanguard index? I'm not ready yet but want to be if it keeps going down.

I don't know if Vanguard has a fund just for oil, but if it does, that's what I would get. After that, I'd pick a straight, long oil etf that just tracks the price of oil. But the fees on these tend to be significant so over a period of 5 or 10 years, you could easily lose some of your principal.

 

[sm625]

What's the best way to invest in crude oil and hold for up to 5-10 years, or sooner if the ship comes in? Etf? Vanguard index? I'm not ready yet but want to be if it keeps going down.

VGENX (Vanguard Energy Fund) would seem like an ok choice. Here is a chart that shows its correlation to oil over the past 20 years or so:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=W&st=1994-06-24&en=200-06-24&id=p00728936285

The black line is VGENX.

It is not a bad correlation, however, that correlation has broken down recently. This could be a major problem. I dont believe we see a bottom in the energy sector until this correlation reestablishes itself, which implies a loss of more than 40% on VGENX. Also make note of the moves that were made in 2006. Oil did shoot back up without significant losses in VGENX, but that was in hindsight a severe market distortion which did correct itself over the next few years. I cannot stress enough how bad of an idea it is to invest into these types of distortions.

As a side note, this is a fine example of why we have bear markets. The distortions in the market as highlighted in the above chart are the types of distortions that cause the smart money to exit.

 

[11thHour]

I don't know if Vanguard has a fund just for oil, but if it does, that's what I would get. After that, I'd pick a straight, long oil etf that just tracks the price of oil. But the fees on these tend to be significant so over a period of 5 or 10 years, you could easily lose some of your principal.

If I bought an etf with a fee, how would the fee be charged...through my brokerage, or through the price of the etf, like a dividend reducing the price every so often? (except I wouldn't receive the dividend of course.)

VGENX (Vanguard Energy Fund) would seem like an ok choice. Here is a chart that shows its correlation to oil over the past 20 years or so:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=W&st=1994-06-24&en=200-06-24&id=p00728936285

The black line is VGENX.

It is not a bad correlation, however, that correlation has broken down recently. This could be a major problem. I dont believe we see a bottom in the energy sector until this correlation reestablishes itself, which implies a loss of more than 40% on VGENX. Also make note of the moves that were made in 2006. Oil did shoot back up without significant losses in VGENX, but that was in hindsight a severe market distortion which did correct itself over the next few years. I cannot stress enough how bad of an idea it is to invest into these types of distortions.

As a side note, this is a fine example of why we have bear markets. The distortions in the market as highlighted in the above chart are the types of distortions that cause the smart money to exit.

Thanks for the info, that will be good to watch. I would have a really difficult time buying vgenx at that price...in fact would prefer to sell it and at the same time buy crude!

 

[Charmonium]

If I bought an etf with a fee, how would the fee be charged...through my brokerage, or through the price of the etf, like a dividend reducing the price every so often? (except I wouldn't receive the dividend of course.)

I think they just take it out of the principal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expense_ratio

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Curious: What is everyone's thoughts on December rate hike? Will that screw up any market drive from Holiday shopping? Or will things go normal? Genuinely curious if we will see the markets up or down by year end.

 

[dullard]

Curious: What is everyone's thoughts on December rate hike? Will that screw up any market drive from Holiday shopping? Or will things go normal? Genuinely curious if we will see the markets up or down by year end.

I personally am betting on a token rate increase in December. The fed hates to raise rates during an election, so they either need to do it all between now and spring, or leave rates alone for the whole next year. I can't really see them leaving rates alone that long.

The federal funds rate will going from almost 0% to just over 0%. So, there will be no practical difference to holiday shopping.

The stock market has had so much time to price this one in. So, I think that the market will initially fall on the news but will recover quickly. I have a terrible crystal ball, but I would expect the market to end 2015 at values close to what they are now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Obviously millionaires and billionaires wont create more jobs if the Fed rate (basis for the prime rate) goes near 1%. So we have kept it artificially low for their benefit for the last 84 months.

We can suffer a 10% prime but the crybabies wont have it. Gotta speculate in real estate, ya know.

 

[Imp]

And there are worrisome red flags in Manulife’s report, which used an online survey of 2,372 homeowners across the country with household incomes of at least $50,000.

...

Yet half of those surveyed said they are already struggling to maintain a cushion of as much as $1,000 in bank accounts. And then there’s the 38 per cent who, at least once, had to borrow from family, credit cards or lenders, or sell investments to cover their bills.

http://business.financialpost.com/n...h-high-housing-prices-largely-to-blame-report

I also question how valid this "online survey" is...

But I wouldn't be surprised if this stuff were true. All my "friends" at work believed in spending every penny, having no savings, and holding onto 5 figures of debt despite a very good income -- they thought I was cheap. A few had two houses, or a house and a condo.

This is going to be hilarious to watch if the Fed does in fact raise interest rates.

 

[Imp]

Shanghai index fell 5%... but it's still well above the 3000 point mark it was at months ago.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34940937

 

[FelixDeCat]

Shanghai index fell 5%... but it's still well above the 3000 point mark it was at months ago.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34940937

I still thinking the QQQs will go back to 100, but not til after January. In the meantime a $3 rise from 114 to 117 is probably not out of the question.

 

[Artdeco]

Have been selling covered calls on Amazon, clearing >$5K/week.

 

[OverVolt]

XOM, BP, and CVX for oil & gas eventual rebound IMO.

Why bother with an index that might have coal and other shit in it.

 

[Imp]

If oil hits the $30s again, might load up on some XOM. Looks to be a 10-20% potential long-term upside using historical charts -- looking at historical charts cost me about 50% on COS though so lololol. Fail.

 

[Artdeco]

If oil hits the $30s again, might load up on some XOM. Looks to be a 10-20% potential long-term upside using historical charts -- looking at historical charts cost me about 50% on COS though so lololol. Fail.

Yeah, not a fan of charting outside or moving averages...

 

[Imp]

Gamble gamble gamble!

WTI is below $40 again. It can now either set a new low or go on a completely misguided rally to $50 before it goes back down as supply continues to exceed demand in a stalled global economy.

My money's on the latter.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I should pay more attention to the price of oil, but I dont. :|

Im just ready for gas to be .99 cents again like it was prior to the year 2000. How did those idiots sucker us into paying $4.50 a gallon for that to begin with?


$100 oil? What a joke that was!


...hey did you hear the one about $150 oil back in 2008? LOL

 

[us3rnotfound]

I should pay more attention to the price of oil, but I dont. :|

Im just ready for gas to be .99 cents again like it was prior to the year 2000. How did those idiots sucker us into paying $4.50 a gallon for that to begin with?


$100 oil? What a joke that was!


...hey did you hear the one about $150 oil back in 2008? LOL

Yeah but, you know. It's a nonrenewable resource, and stuff.