Official 2015 Stock Market Thread

Imp · Sep 24, 2015

So... anyone going to play Volkswagen? If it doesn't go bankrupt, it'll probably go right back up. Problem is calling the bottom...

Udgnim · Sep 24, 2015

Imp said:
So... anyone going to play Volkswagen? If it doesn't go bankrupt, it'll probably go right back up. Problem is calling the bottom...

VW won't go bankrupt from only this event

JEDI · Sep 24, 2015

Udgnim said:
VW won't go bankrupt from only this event

I would have thought insurance would cover this (and all) screwups?

Jeeebus · Sep 24, 2015

JEDI said:
I would have thought insurance would cover this (and all) screwups?

Insurance usually doesn't cover deliberate acts. It is usually limited to negligence.

MustISO · Sep 24, 2015

Going down, down...so much profit lost this week (on paper)

Attic · Sep 24, 2015

Until dividends start getting cut, i'd not worry toooo much. But wondering with the obvious global slowdown and imminent recession, how long before the dividends begin to get cut.

Looks like negative interest rates and more QE are in store by 2016. SPY not a terrible place to be.

sm625 · Sep 24, 2015

Well this is not how I envisioned the rally so far. But then again, when is it ever? My indicator is not perfect, but I cannot ignore the numbers it is throwing out. Over 100 on the graph is a big deal. Like Summer 2010, or Nov 2011 were a big deal. I guess this will be the truest test of whether this thing can tell for sure whether a truly large move is coming. I've never actually caught one of the big kahuna waves upward using this indicator since I developed it, so I'm hoping this will be the first.

Code:

2015-08-04      33.8 chg   -4.0, score:   29.9 graph:   63.5 BUYIF
2015-08-05      47.6 chg   13.7, score:   61.3 graph:   70.6 BUY
2015-08-06      26.1 chg  -21.5, score:    4.7 graph:   65.9 BUY
2015-08-07      33.7 chg    7.6, score:   41.3 graph:   70.6 BUY
2015-08-10      19.1 chg  -14.6, score:    4.5 graph:   67.9 BUY
2015-08-11      12.1 chg   -7.0, score:    5.1 graph:   66.8 BUY
2015-08-12       6.2 chg   -5.9, score:    0.3 graph:   66.1 (sell in 33.0 days)
2015-08-13     -25.3 chg  -31.4, score:  -56.7 graph:   53.1 (sell in 29.7 days)
2015-08-14      -6.8 chg   18.4, score:   11.6 graph:   59.1 (sell in 29.1 days)
2015-08-17     -33.4 chg  -26.6, score:  -60.0 graph:   48.3 (sell in 25.6 days)
2015-08-18     -97.9 chg  -64.5, score: -162.4 graph:   21.1 SELL
2015-08-19     -23.4 chg   74.5, score:   51.1 graph:   40.6
2015-08-20      -9.7 chg   13.7, score:    4.0 graph:   46.1
2015-08-21      -7.6 chg    2.1, score:   -5.4 graph:   47.0
2015-08-24     -11.6 chg   -4.0, score:  -15.6 graph:   45.4
2015-08-25      -4.8 chg    6.8, score:    2.1 graph:   48.1
2015-08-26     -12.6 chg   -7.8, score:  -20.4 graph:   45.0
2015-08-27     -30.6 chg  -18.0, score:  -48.7 graph:   37.8
2015-08-28     -38.4 chg   -7.7, score:  -46.1 graph:   34.7
2015-08-31     -39.0 chg   -0.6, score:  -39.6 graph:   34.4
2015-09-01     -21.5 chg   17.4, score:   -4.1 graph:   41.4
2015-09-02     -14.3 chg    7.3, score:   -7.0 graph:   44.3
2015-09-03      -9.8 chg    4.5, score:   -5.2 graph:   46.1
2015-09-04      -0.2 chg    9.6, score:    9.4 graph:   49.9
2015-09-08       5.2 chg    5.4, score:   10.6 graph:   52.1
2015-09-09      37.0 chg   31.8, score:   68.8 graph:   64.8 BUYIF
2015-09-10      43.2 chg    6.2, score:   49.3 graph:   68.9 BUY
2015-09-11      33.5 chg   -9.7, score:   23.9 graph:   68.4 BUY
2015-09-14      55.9 chg   22.4, score:   78.3 graph:   79.4 BUY
2015-09-15      30.6 chg  -25.4, score:    5.2 graph:   73.7 BUY
2015-09-16       3.1 chg  -27.5, score:  -24.4 graph:   64.4 (sell in 30.9 days)
2015-09-17       5.2 chg    2.1, score:    7.3 graph:   64.4 (sell in 30.2 days)
2015-09-18      28.5 chg   23.3, score:   51.8 graph:   73.5 BUY
2015-09-21      45.1 chg   16.6, score:   61.7 graph:   83.6 BUY
2015-09-22      54.3 chg    9.2, score:   63.4 graph:   91.1 BUY
2015-09-23      61.9 chg    7.6, score:   69.5 graph:   98.1 BUY
2015-09-24      75.7 chg   13.9, score:   89.6 graph:  [B]107.8[/B] BUY

Imp · Sep 24, 2015

Udgnim said:
VW won't go bankrupt from only this event

I really doubt they'll be affected long-term. If Toyota survived despite the news telling people their car could suddenly accelerate into a brick wall, I'm sure VK will survive. What's the story? Your VK might be raping and pillaging the environment like big trucks, construction vehicles, or large displacement engine vehicles... And your car was probably shipped on a giant transport running on bunker fuel.

FelixDeCat · Sep 24, 2015

There's no stink'n rally.

The market is down for the week, the QQQs starting near 106, hitting low 102s, bouncing back some, but still will hit 100 soon.

Sell.

Now.

brianmanahan · Sep 24, 2015

Imp said:
So... anyone going to play Volkswagen? If it doesn't go bankrupt, it'll probably go right back up. Problem is calling the bottom...

i thought about it, but didn't have any money free to do it

brianmanahan · Sep 24, 2015

FelixDeCat said:
Sell.

Now.

Charmonium · Sep 24, 2015

VW seems to be off it's lows - Winterkorn's resignation probably helped with that. P/E is under 6 so I'd wait to see who they appoint as CEO and consider getting in.

Charmonium · Sep 24, 2015

Looks like the CEO of the Porsche division will be taking over. Not sure if this will be permanent or on an interim basis though.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/report-porsche-ceo-will-take-charge-at-vw-2015-9

KB · Sep 25, 2015

Don't fight the FED as they say.

Yellen talks about global growth problems and the market falls hard. She talks about American strength the next chance she gets and the market goes up.

FelixDeCat · Sep 25, 2015

FelixDeCat said:
There's no stink'n rally.

The market is down for the week, the QQQs starting near 106, hitting low 102s, bouncing back some, but still will hit 100 soon.

Sell.

Now.

Imp · Sep 25, 2015

POT is looking tasty again. Down to $27 from $31 when I sold earlier in the week. And a 7% trailing year dividend yield.

If only I wasn't burned by COS when it had something like a 10% dividend. And if only there wasn't a global recession being forecast in the next year or two...

brianmanahan · Sep 25, 2015

dang, BBRY down almost %8 today

in other news, ihatemyjob2004 declares that it's an even better bargain!

Jeffg010 · Sep 28, 2015

Here we go again down. Mark my words the dow will get to under 16,000. I'm all in bonds and going to ride this trend. Where all you guys telling me that is was just a bump in the road.

Train · Sep 28, 2015

Glad I diversified. My energy stock seems to go up when everything else goes down.

Attic · Sep 28, 2015

I'm of the belief the market has to rise, no matter what, so i'm not terribly convinced the market will be allowed to fall much further.

Cliffs: QE4

I wouldn't believe the FED mouthpieces coming out after being very dovish to leave rates unchanged vs their new hawkish position of a rate hike on the table for the year. I think the biggest issue is the equity market trying to cope with very low growth vs valuations based on normal/high growth. It's a tough market to be in right now, everything is very manipulated, and at the mercy of further manipulations.... so it's hard to be confident in anything.

FelixDeCat · Sep 28, 2015

QQQ 100 target reached

Stocks go back up later this week?

Bear market rally

Imp · Sep 28, 2015

Jeffg010 said:
Here we go again down. Mark my words the dow will get to under 16,000. I'm all in bonds and going to ride this trend. Where all you guys telling me that is was just a bump in the road.

I thought about going bonds but the Fed thing is worrying -- Fed hike rate, bond prices go down for yields to go up?

Regardless, I'm almost all cash. My single Canadian preferreds ETF is taking a massive dump -- no surprise given how the economy is in recession (i.e. companies no make da moneys to make da payouts).

Hugo Drax · Sep 28, 2015

Imp said:
So... anyone going to play Volkswagen? If it doesn't go bankrupt, it'll probably go right back up. Problem is calling the bottom...

Nope. Don't like Gambling.

jpiniero · Sep 28, 2015

Attic said:
I'm of the belief the market has to rise, no matter what, so i'm not terribly convinced the market will be allowed to fall much further.

It's not the Fed's job to prop up the stock market, especially when it's still very overpriced. I know it looks like it is, but it's not.

Charmonium · Sep 28, 2015

Imp said:
I thought about going bonds but the Fed thing is worrying -- Fed hike rate, bond prices go down for yields to go up?

Regardless, I'm almost all cash. My single Canadian preferreds ETF is taking a massive dump -- no surprise given how the economy is in recession (i.e. companies no make da moneys to make da payouts).

Rates have been flattening over the breadth of the yield curve which looks like we could be headed to an inverted yield curve (signaling a recession) - but I don't think it's going to go that way.

Short rates have been rising faster than long rates but I think they will eventually catch up. The US economy is healthy but corp earnings are being dragged down by economic stagnation/recession in most of the rest of the world.

Unfortunately, the issues with global stagnation and low commodity demand probably isn't going to change much over the next 6-12 months.

I have options on a short treasury etf for 2017 (TLT). I do expect to make money on them next year but it's been a rough ride so far.

***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

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Official 2015 Stock Market Thread