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***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

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s0me0nesmind1 said:
Wait, wut? A year ago is when the market was at it's peak. WHY would you want to get IN when the market is at it's high?
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Supposedly, you can't predict when the market goes up or down, so you shouldn't try and buy at anytime, average down/up over time... Use a decade plus long-term investment horizon or something.

Meh, I'm still going to try.
 
Imp said:
Supposedly, you can't predict when the market goes up or down, so you shouldn't try and buy at anytime, average down/up over time... Use a decade plus long-term investment horizon or something.

Meh, I'm still going to try.
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That's true, especially for short term speculation. Longer term, fundamental economic components do win out though. It's just that, as the old saying goes, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

There are a lot of general macroeconomic guides that can help you if you're inclined to try to time the market. One that comes to mind immediately is something like the yield curve. And inverted yield curve is one of the most reliable predictors of a future recession.
 
bought some FCAU, due to up coming Ferrari IPO, and recently traded in a 2006 Jeep GC for a 2015 one, just basic investment 101 and I usually do very well when I invest in companies with products that I use/like. (GMCR, AAPL, etc)
 
richardycc said:
bought some FCAU, due to up coming Ferrari IPO, and recently traded in a 2006 Jeep GC for a 2015 one, just basic investment 101 and I usually do very well when I invest in companies with products that I use/like. (GMCR, AAPL, etc)
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Wait a minute, are you bragging? Those Jeeps are mighty pricey. :$
 
Boooo, Bank of Canada kept the rate at 0.50%... CAD still went down relative to USD. Come on Fed, jack it up already.

WTI down, looks like $45 is the new $60 for the next while.
 
Finally got a buy signal today.

I've been working on a new tool, modeled after Dan Murphy's "Portfolio Boss" software (which he licenses for $2000 a year.) Rather than pay 2 grand a year or 5 grand for a lifetime license, I simply took the concepts he laid out in his "db transactions workshop, and threw together my own tool. It searches through the entire S&P500 to find the stocks which are poised to make gains according to a very simple rule, which he calls a "db transaction". It is calculated from the 6 month price change and the 5 day price change.

screenshot.jpg


I'm not trading on these yet. I'm going to give it a month to see how these symbols perform. It is supposed to be a strictly once a month trade. At any rate, for right now, qqq calls will do.
 
Too bad I didn't buy Bombardier. They can barely fill the order for LRTs in my city, and they appear to be in major trouble, but one nice report and they're up like 50% in two days.
 
Goldman Sachs (lulz) thinsk oil might go to $20. If $45 is the new top, might happen. The Iran deal is apparently closer to moving forward after the Senate did something yesterday. And I heard that Canada has a bunch of new projects too far along to stop, going to bring in even more production they can't just turn off within the next few years. Then throw in a bunch of new fracking wells that can be turned on/off anytime and pew pew pew.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/goldman-sachs-oil-1.3223993

And Canada's doing great. The "technical" recession that apparently isn't a real recession is bringing great times. Debt-income ratio now at 164.6%.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/debt-income-net-worth-1.3223917

Edit:
Wow, only found this now. Everything from all these "experts" sounds very familiar to what's going on now in Canada. Peter Schiff related compilation:
https://youtu.be/sgRGBNekFIw

He sounds like a perma-bear but looks like he was right about one thing. Lol... "experts" saying Merill Lynch was a good company in 2007.
 
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Market looks nice so far today. Hoping it holds out and people are realizing that the rate increase isn't the end of the world.
 
QQQ up 3 % in the last week. I'm selling some of my calls to ensure that I walk away with a positive return no matter what sort of bs the Fed and the markets pull tomorrow. My indicator says its all good but I'm not sure if it is influenced by significant Fed actions. I'm expecting a blip downward of about 1.5% then a resumption of the buying. But you never really know. They could announce a rate hike tomorrow and the market could shoot up 4.4% in one hour. That is the sort of action one should expect if we are indeed in the topping process. If that happens then expect a 4% down day about a week or two later.
 
I think the feds don't have much of a choice about raising rates. The 2 year yield has roughly doubled since last November so rates on the short end have already been going up. Everyone knows that they need to start the rate hiking cycle soon so putting it off could create concern that they're behind the curve.

They still aren't in a position where they absolutely have to act but I think they will just for the symbolic value and as a message to the markets.
 
2 PM Eastern I think. I don't think they are going to raise actually... because Wall Street doesn't want them to. Either way you will see a huge swing based upon what they announce.

And yes they are far behind the curve. The rate really should be 1% now but that would of course cause a stock market meltdown.
 
I'm staying in. Whatever happens there will probably be a reaction based purely on emotion. If it goes down people will buy in to get some bargains.
 
I get the feeling they aren't going to raise. I'm only 5% in. If they do hike, I'll wait a week or two in case there's a delayed "freak out."
 
Imp said:
Robert Shiller thinks U.S. stocks are in a bubble. And I read something about an analyst saying 2016 is probably going to be a year of recessions for a lot of countries. With how well China and the rest of the world is doing, aside from the U.S. of A, I think they may be onto something.

http://business.financialpost.com/i...arns-but-others-beg-to-differ?__lsa=34ee-e0b8

Fed meeting is Thursday. Still hoping they do it.
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analysts predict the future correctly half the time.
 
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